Odds At 98.8% (Extremely Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Remain At 3.5% After The July 27, 2016 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Forecast

Latest Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, the investors who trade in fed fund futures via the CME Group have odds at 98.8% (as implied by current pricing on contracts) that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate at 0.25% - 0.5% at the July 27^TH, 2016 monetary policy meeting (extremely likely.)

The current United States Prime Rate, which went into effect on December 17, 2015, is 3.5%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Despite recent and very healthy reports on jobs (jobless claims and employment), future-market traders are betting that the Fed will leave short-term rates -- including the U.S. Prime Rate -- unchanged at the July 27^TH FOMC meeting.

Stay tuned for the latest odds...

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Current Odds

• Current odds that the Prime Rate will continue at 3.5% after the July 27^TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 98.8% (extremely likely.)
  
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• Current odds that the Prime Rate will continue at 3.5% after the September 21^ST, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 93% (very likely.)
  
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• Current odds that the Prime Rate will continue at 3.5% after the November 2^ND, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 93% (very likely.)
  
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• Current odds that the Prime Rate will continue at 3.5% after the December 14^TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 75.4% (somewhat likely), with a 22.5% chance of a 25 basis point (0.25 percentage point) rate increase, and a 0.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut.
  
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• NB: United States Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

The odds associated with fed fund futures contracts -- widely accepted as the best predictor of what the FOMC will do with the benchmark Fed Funds Target Rate -- are constantly changing, so stay tuned for the latest odds.