Odds Now At 90% (Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Hold At 8.50% After The November 1, 2023 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 90% (likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to keep the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at  5.25% - 5.50% at the November 1^ST, 2023 monetary policy meeting, with the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) holding at 8.50%.

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Continued Softening In The Job Market:
The Fed Likes To See This

 

From the August, 2023 Job Openings and Labor Turnover report:

• Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y), job openings are down by 588,000, or -5.77%.
  
  
• Y-o-Y, hires are down by 621,000, or -9.59%.

Meanwhile, Y-o-Y, the closely watched Core PCE fell from 4.3% in July, to 3.9% during August, 2023.  It was 4.9% back in August of 2022.

 

The taming of inflation continues, as does the culling jobs. Stay tuned...

 

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The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.50% on July 26, 2023.

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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Current Odds

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at 8.50% after the November 1^ST, 2023 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 90% (likely.)
  

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