Odds Now At 90% (Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Hold at 7.50% After the January 29, 2025 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 90% (likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to keep the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) at 4.25% - 4.50% at the January 29^TH, 2025 monetary policy meeting, leaving the U.S. Prime Rate at the current 7.50%.

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The American Consumer

Is the American consumer ready to keep the American economy going strong in 2025?

• Here's a quote from the latest (December) Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS):

"...Broadly speaking, consumers believe that the economy has improved considerably as inflation has slowed, but they do not feel that they are thriving..."

Month-on-month, the ICS was +3.06%, while year-on-year it was +6.07%.

• Consumer Confidence declined by 7.18% this month (December, 2024.)  Here's a clip:
  
  

  "...Consumers became a bit less bullish about the stock market in December: 52.9% expected stock prices to increase over the year ahead, down from a record high of 57.2% in November. Also, 25% of consumers expected stock prices to decline, up from 21.7%. The share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the next 12 months ticked up to 48.5% but remained near recent lows. The share expecting lower rates eased to 29.3% -- down from recent months but still quite high..."

Stay tuned...

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The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 7.50% on December 18, 2024.

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SUMMARY

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will hold at the current 7.50% after the January 29^TH, 2025 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 90% (likely.)

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