Odds Now At 90% (Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Continue at 7.50% After the May 7, 2025 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 90% (likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to leave the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) at 4.25% - 4.50% at the May 7^TH, 2025 monetary policy meeting, leaving the U.S. Prime Rate at the current 7.50%.

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Tariffs and Job Cuts

Here's a clip from the February, 2025 Leading Economic Index:

"...Given substantial policy uncertainty and the notable pullback in consumer sentiment and spending since the beginning of the year, we currently forecast that real GDP growth in the US will slow to around 2.0% in 2025.'..."

Two percent is too generous.

The repercussions from #POTUS47's tariffs, and layoffs from DOGE, have yet to be fully felt in the American economy.

The Federal Reserve's estimate of a +1.7% change in real GDP for 2025 is a bit more realistic.

The www.FedPrimeRate.com estimate for 2025 real GDP: Flat to +0.7%.

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Meanwhile, the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite Index ended the week in correction territory, again.

 

Stay tuned...

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The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 7.50% on December 18, 2024.

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SUMMARY

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at the current 7.50% after the May 7^TH, 2025 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 90% (likely.)

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