Odds Now At 90% (Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Continue at 7.50% After the July 30, 2025 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 90% (likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to leave the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) at 4.25% - 4.50% at the July 30^TH, 2025 monetary policy meeting, leaving the U.S. Prime Rate at the current 7.50%.

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The Data

 

• According to revised government estimates, the American economy shrank by 0.5% during the first quarter of 2025. 
  
  
• Year-on-year (y-o-y), the Core PCE Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, came in at 2.7% for May, 2025.
  
  The previous y-o-y reading (April, 2025) was revised up, from 2.5% to 2.6%.
  
  
• Despite the threat of stagflation, equities finished the first week of summer 2025 with gains. Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite indexes closed at all-time highs. 

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Stay tuned...

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The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 7.50% on December 18, 2024.

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SUMMARY

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at the current 7.50% after the July 30^TH, 2025 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 90% (likely.)

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