Odds Now At 100% (CERTAIN) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Be Cut to 7.25% At the September 17, 2025 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to lower the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) by 25 basis points (BPS) to 4.00% - 4.25% at the September 17^TH, 2025 monetary policy meeting, which would lower the U.S. Prime Rate to 7.25%.

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The Latest Jobs Data have
 Sealed the Rate-Cut Deal

 

• An estimated and tepid 22,000 nonfarm jobs were created during August, 2025, while the June, 2025 figure was revised to -13,000, the first negative reading since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.
  
  
• Both month-on-month and year-on-year, job openings were negative according to the July, 2025 JOLTS report.
  
  
• Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported "...85,979 job cuts in August, up 39% from the 62,075 announced in July..."
  
  

  "...Employers announced plans to add 1,494 jobs in August, the lowest total for the month since Challenger began tracking hiring plans in 2009..."

• Year-on-year, the Core PCE Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, moved higher, from +2.8% for July, 2024, to +2.9% during July, 2025.
  
  
  • So the Fed will be cutting short-term rates while inflation remains untamed. Such drama!😌 
• One more reading on inflation before the September 17^TH, FOMC meeting: the Consumer Price Index, which will be released on September 11, 2025, 8:30 A.M., ET.
  
  
• Here's a communication from the White House, on tariffs. 

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Stay tuned...

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The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 7.50% on December 18, 2024.

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SUMMARY

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will be cut to  7.25% at the September 17^TH, 2025 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain.)

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