Odds Now At 90% (LIKELY) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Be Cut to 6.75% At Tomorrow's (December 10, 2025) FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 90% (likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to lower the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) by 25 basis points (BPS) to 3.50% - 3.75% at tomorrow's (December 10, 2025) monetary policy meeting, which would lower the U.S. Prime Rate to 6.75%.

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Hard + Soft Data

  

Despite a persistent inflation problem, serious weakness in jobs, manufacturing and the American consumer translates to a likely 25 BPS cut for the TRFFR tomorrow. 

Check out where the University of Michigan's Current Conditions Index stands right now (3-month moving average), compared to where it was during the worst days of the COVID-19 pandemic...☟😐☟

• Stay tuned...

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The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 7.00% on October 29, 2025.

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SUMMARY

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will be cut to 6.75% at tomorrow's (December 10^TH, 2025) FOMC monetary policy meeting: 90% (likely.)

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