United States Prime Rate: U.S. Prime Rate Is Now 6.50%

Prime Rate Forecast - Predictions

Earlier today, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve adjourned an emergency monetary policy meeting, and, in accordance with the latest forecast, the FOMC has just lowered its target for the Federal Funds Rate by 75 basis points (0.75 percentage point) to 3.50%. Therefore, as of today, the U.S. Prime Rate is now 6.50%. Many American banks have already issued a press release announcing that their prime lending rate has been lowered from 7.25% to 6.50%.

Here's a clip from a press release issued by the FOMC earlier today:

"The Federal Open Market Committee has decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate 75 basis points to 3-1/2 percent.

The Committee took this action in view of a weakening of the economic outlook and increasing downside risks to growth. While strains in short-term funding markets have eased somewhat, broader financial market conditions have continued to deteriorate and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households. Moreover, incoming information indicates a deepening of the housing contraction as well as some softening in labor markets.

The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, but it will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.

Appreciable downside risks to growth remain. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act in a timely manner as needed to address those risks.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Charles L. Evans; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Eric S. Rosengren; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was William Poole, who did not believe that current conditions justified policy action before the regularly scheduled meeting next week. Absent and not voting was Frederic S. Mishkin.

In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 75-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Chicago and Minneapolis."

Despite today's intermeeting move by the Fed, the futures market is 100% certain that the Fed will cut short-term rates again on January 30^TH.

Summary of The Latest Odds

As of right now, the investors who trade in fed funds futures at the Chicago Board of Trade have odds at 100% (as implied by current pricing on contracts) that the FOMC will vote to lower the benchmark Federal Funds Target Rate by at least 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point) at the January 30^TH, 2008 monetary policy meeting.

Summary of the Latest Prime Rate Forecast:

Current odds that the Prime Rate will be cut by at least 25 basis points at the January 30^TH FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain)
NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Federal Funds Target Rate + 3)

The odds related to federal-funds futures contracts -- widely accepted as the best predictor of where the FOMC will take the benchmark Fed Funds Target Rate -- are constantly changing, so stay tuned for the latest odds.

Labels: fomc, fomc_meeting, odds, prime_rate_decrease, prime_rate_forecast