Prime Rate

also known as the Fed, National or United States Prime Rate,
from the interest-rate specialists at www.FedPrimeRate.comSM

Thursday, December 15, 2016

Odds At 96% (Extremely Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Remain At 3.75% After The February 1, 2017 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast
Latest Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, the investors who trade in fed fund futures have odds at 96% (as implied by current pricing on contracts) that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate at 0.5% - 0.75% at the February 1ST, 2017 monetary policy meeting (extremely likely.)

The current Prime Rate, which went into effect on December 15, 2016, is 3.75%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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The Trump Effect still has capital moving out of the safety of American government debt, which is driving up yields.  The yield on the Ten-Year U.S. Treasury Note continues to surge higher, which, in turn, will cause mortgage rates to rise.

Here's a recent history on the ten-year yield:

  • December 7, 2016: 2.34%
  • December 8, 2016: 2.40%
  • December 9, 2016: 2.47% 
  • December 12, 2016: 2.49% 
  • December 13, 2016: 2.48% 
  • December 14, 2016: 2.54%
  • December 15, 2016: 2.60%

Let's hope all the Wall Street enthusiasm about Mr. Trump's rise to the White House is well placed.

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Influencing the latest odds include readings on Inflation, Retail Sales, Jobs and Industrial Production.

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Current Odds

  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will remain at the current 3.75% after the February 1ST, 2017 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 96% (extremely likely), with remaining odds -- 4% (extremely unlikely) -- that the FOMC will opt to raise short-term rates by 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point.)

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  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will remain at the current 3.75% after the March 15TH, 2017 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 74.7%  (somewhat likely), with remaining odds --  25.3% -- that short-term rates will be at least 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point) higher.

     ==========
  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will remain at the current 3.75% after the May 3RD, 2017 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 60.4%  with remaining odds --  39.6% -- that short-term rates will be at least 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point) higher.


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The odds associated with fed fund futures contracts -- widely accepted as the best predictor of what the FOMC will do with the benchmark Fed Funds Target Rate -- are constantly changing, so stay tuned for the latest odds.

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Wednesday, December 14, 2016

United States Prime Rate Rises to 3.75%

U.S. Prime Rate Is Now 3.75%
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve has just adjourned its eighth and final monetary policy meeting of 2016 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to raise the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate from 0% - 0.25% to 0.5% - 0.75%.  Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed or national Prime Rate) is 3.75%, effective tomorrow.

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American banks have already started to announce that their Prime Lending Rate is now 3.75%, including:

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Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace since mid-year. Job gains have been solid in recent months and the unemployment rate has declined. Household spending has been rising moderately but business fixed investment has remained soft. Inflation has increased since earlier this year but is still below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up considerably but still are low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation is expected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 to 3/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo..."
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Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Odds At 95.4% (Extremely Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Rise To 3.75% At Tomorrow's FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast
Latest Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, the investors who trade in fed fund futures have odds at 95.4% (as implied by current pricing on contracts) that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate by 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point), to 0.5% - 0.75%, at tomorrow's monetary policy meeting (extremely likely.)

The current United States Prime Rate, which went into effect on December 17, 2015, is 3.5%.  A 25 basis point rate hike tomorrow would cause the U.S. Prime Rate to rise to 3.75%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

=======================

The 3 major stock-market indices closed with record highs again today, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) creeping closer to 20,000.

  • The DJIA gained 114.78 points (0.58%) to close at 19,911.21 (CHART)
  • The broader S and P 500 Index added 14.76 points (0.654%) to close at 2,271.72 (CHART)
  • The NASDAQ Composite advanced by 51.29 points (0.948%) to close at 5,463.83 (CHART)

Stay tuned for tomorrow press release from The Fed, and reports on retail sales and industrial production.

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Current Odds

  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 3.75% at tomorrow's FOMC monetary policy meeting: 95.4% (extremely likely), with remaining odds -- 4.6% (very unlikely) -- that short-term rates, including the U.S. Prime Rate, will remain at current levels.

    ==========

The odds associated with fed fund futures contracts -- widely accepted as the best predictor of what the FOMC will do with the benchmark Fed Funds Target Rate -- are constantly changing, so stay tuned for the latest odds.

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Friday, December 02, 2016

Odds At 97.2% (Extremely Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Rise To 3.75% At The December 14, 2016 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast
Latest Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, the investors who trade in fed fund futures have odds at 97.2% (as implied by current pricing on contracts) that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate by 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point), to 0.5% - 0.75%, at the December 14TH, 2016 monetary policy meeting (extremely likely.)

The current United States Prime Rate, which went into effect on December 17, 2015, is 3.5%.  A 25 basis point rate hike on December 14TH would cause the U.S. Prime Rate to rise to 3.75%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

=======================

The November jobs report, which included a negative reading on wages and labor-force participation, was strong enough to solidify a rate hike on December 14TH .

Influencing the latest odds include readings on Inflation, GDP, Housing, Corporate Profits, Manufacturing, Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales.

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Current Odds

  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 3.75% at the December 14TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 97.2% (extremely likely), with remaining odds -- 2.8% (very unlikely) -- that short-term rates, including the U.S. Prime Rate, will remain at current levels.

    ==========

The odds associated with fed fund futures contracts -- widely accepted as the best predictor of what the FOMC will do with the benchmark Fed Funds Target Rate -- are constantly changing, so stay tuned for the latest odds.
 

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Monday, November 21, 2016

Odds At 95.4% (Extremely Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Rise To 3.75% At The December 14, 2016 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast
Latest Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, the investors who trade in fed fund futures have odds at 95.4% (as implied by current pricing on contracts) that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate by 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point), to 0.5% - 0.75%, at the December 14TH, 2016 monetary policy meeting (extremely likely.)

The current United States Prime Rate, which went into effect on December 17, 2015, is 3.5%.  A 25 basis point rate hike on December 14TH would cause the U.S. Prime Rate to rise to 3.75%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

=======================


Recent and key readings on inflation, housing, jobs and retail sales had strong influence on the latest odds.

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The yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note has been on the rise, so mortgage rates will rise too.

Here's a recent history on the 10-year yield:

  • November 08, 2016: 1.88%
  • November 09, 2016: 2.07% 
  • November 10, 2016: 2.15% 
  • November 14, 2016: 2.23% 
  • November 15, 2016: 2.23% 
  • November 16, 2016: 2.22% 
  • November 17, 2016: 2.29% 
  • November 18, 2016: 2.34%  
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Equities continue to soar to new, record-highs.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed at 18,956.69 today, while the broader Standard and Poor's 500 Index topped its history at 2,198.18. The NASDAQ Composite closed at 5,368.86.

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Current Odds

  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 3.75% at the December 14TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 95.4% (extremely likely), with remaining odds -- 4.6% (very unlikely) -- that short-term rates, including the U.S. Prime Rate, will remain at current levels.

    ==========

The odds associated with fed fund futures contracts -- widely accepted as the best predictor of what the FOMC will do with the benchmark Fed Funds Target Rate -- are constantly changing, so stay tuned for the latest odds.

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Wednesday, November 09, 2016

Odds At 81.1% (Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Rise To 3.75% At The December 14, 2016 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast
Latest Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, the investors who trade in fed fund futures have odds at 81.1% (as implied by current pricing on contracts) that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate by 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point), to 0.5% - 0.75%, at the December 14TH, 2016 monetary policy meeting (likely.)

The current United States Prime Rate, which went into effect on December 17, 2015, is 3.5%.  A 25 basis point rate hike on December 14TH would cause the U.S. Prime Rate to rise to 3.75%

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

========




Many were betting that markets would react negatively to a Donald Trump victory over Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House.

But today, equities closed with gains, and key treasuries notes were sold, indicating confidence in the future of the U.S. economy.

The Standard and Poor's 500 Index added 23.70 points (+1.108%) to close at 2,163.26, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gained 256.95 points (+1.402%) to close at 18,589.69.  The NASDAQ Composite Index rose by 57.58 points (+1.109%) to close at 5,251.07.

The yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note ended at 2.07% today, a yield not seen since January 22.

With no significant bearish drama in markets today, traders are still betting the Fed is on track to raise short-term rates next month.

Stay tuned...

=======================

Current Odds

  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 3.75% at the December 14TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 81.1% (likely), with remaining odds -- 18.9% (unlikely) -- that short-term rates, including the U.S. Prime Rate, will remain at current levels.

    ==========

The odds associated with fed fund futures contracts -- widely accepted as the best predictor of what the FOMC will do with the benchmark Fed Funds Target Rate -- are constantly changing, so stay tuned for the latest odds.

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Wednesday, November 02, 2016

Seventh FOMC Meeting of 2016 Adjourned: U.S. Prime Rate Remains At 3.5%

FOMC votes to leave short-term rates unchanged; Fed Prime Rate remains at 3.5%
U.S. Prime Rate
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve has just adjourned its seventh monetary policy meeting of 2016 and, in accordance with our most recent forecast, has voted to leave short-term interest rates at their current levels. Therefore, the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate will remain at 0.25% - 0.5%, and the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the National or Fed Prime Rate) will continue at the current 3.5%.

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and growth of economic activity has picked up from the modest pace seen in the first half of this year. Although the unemployment rate is little changed in recent months, job gains have been solid. Household spending has been rising moderately but business fixed investment has remained soft. Inflation has increased somewhat since earlier this year but is still below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up but remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation is expected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.

Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen but decided, for the time being, to wait for some further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action were: Esther L. George and Loretta J. Mester, each of whom preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 to 3/4 percent..."

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Tuesday, November 01, 2016

Odds At 92.8% (Very Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Remain At 3.5% After Tomorrow's FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast
Latest Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, the investors who trade in fed fund futures via the CME Group have odds at 92.8% (as implied by current pricing on contracts) that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate at 0.25% - 0.5% at tomorrow's monetary policy meeting (very likely.)

The current United States Prime Rate, which went into effect on December 17, 2015, is 3.5%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

========

Traders are still betting the Fed will do nothing with short-term rates tomorrow, despite Friday's first estimate on third quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which, at 2.9% annualized, exceeded forecasts.

Yesterday we learned that year-on-year inflation, as measured by the Core PCE Price Index, moved sideways during September, at 1.7%, stubbornly below the Fed's 2% target.

Stay tuned for tomorrow's Fed press release on rates...

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Current Odds
  • Current odds the Prime Rate will continue at 3.5% after tomorrow's FOMC monetary policy meeting: 92.8% (very likely) with odds at 7.2%  for a 25 basis point (0.25 percentage point) rate increase.

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  • Current odds the Prime Rate will continue at 3.5% after the December 14TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 22% (unlikely), with remaining odds -- 78% (somewhat likely) -- for at least one rate increase between now and December 14TH.

    ========

  • NB: United States Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

The odds associated with fed fund futures contracts -- widely accepted as the best predictor of what the FOMC will do with the benchmark Fed Funds Target Rate -- are constantly changing, so stay tuned for the latest odds.

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Friday, October 14, 2016

Odds At 92.8% (Very Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Remain At 3.5% After The November 2, 2016 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast
Latest Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, the investors who trade in fed fund futures via the CME Group have odds at 92.8% (as implied by current pricing on contracts) that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate at 0.25% - 0.5% at the November 2ND, 2016 monetary policy meeting (very likely.)

The current United States Prime Rate, which went into effect on December 17, 2015, is 3.5%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)


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Odds were little changed after Fed chair Janet Yellen's dovish comments in Boston today.  Clips:

"...If we assume that hysteresis is in fact present to some degree after deep recessions, the natural next question is to ask whether it might be possible to reverse these adverse supply-side effects by temporarily running a 'high-pressure economy,' with robust aggregate demand and a tight labor market. One can certainly identify plausible ways in which this might occur. Increased business sales would almost certainly raise the productive capacity of the economy by encouraging additional capital spending, especially if accompanied by reduced uncertainty about future prospects. In addition, a tight labor market might draw in potential workers who would otherwise sit on the sidelines and encourage job-to-job transitions that could also lead to more-efficient -- and, hence, more-productive -- job matches.  Finally, albeit more speculatively, strong demand could potentially yield significant productivity gains by, among other things, prompting higher levels of research and development spending and increasing the incentives to start new, innovative businesses..."

"...With nominal short-term interest rates at or close to their effective lower bound in many countries, the broader question of how expectations are formed has taken on heightened importance. Under such circumstances, many central banks have sought additional ways to stimulate their economies, including adopting policies that are directly aimed at influencing expectations of future interest rates and inflation. The unusually explicit and extended guidance about the likely future path of the federal funds rate that was provided by the FOMC from 2011 through 2014 is an example of such a policy, as is the Bank of Japan's upward revision to its official inflation objective in 2013. Moreover, these and other expectational strategies may be needed again in the future, given the likelihood that the global economy may continue to experience historically low interest rates, thereby making it unlikely that reductions in short-term interest rates alone would be an adequate response to a future recession..."




Stay tuned for the latest odds...

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Current Odds
  • Current odds the Prime Rate will continue at 3.5% after the November 2ND, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 92.8% (very likely) with odds at 7.2%  for a 25 basis point (0.25 percentage point) rate increase.

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  • Current odds the Prime Rate will continue at 3.5% after the December 14TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 30.9% (somewhat unlikely), with remaining odds -- 69.1% (somewhat likely) -- for at least one rate increase between now and December 14TH.

    ========

  • NB: United States Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

The odds associated with fed fund futures contracts -- widely accepted as the best predictor of what the FOMC will do with the benchmark Fed Funds Target Rate -- are constantly changing, so stay tuned for the latest odds.

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>  SITEMAP  <

Friday, October 07, 2016

Odds At 91.7% (Very Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Remain At 3.5% After The November 2, 2016 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast
Latest Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, the investors who trade in fed fund futures via the CME Group have odds at 91.7% (as implied by current pricing on contracts) that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate at 0.25% - 0.5% at the November 2ND, 2016 monetary policy meeting (very likely.)

The current United States Prime Rate, which went into effect on December 17, 2015, is 3.5%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)


========

This morning's lackluster jobs report for September has traders betting the Fed will leave short-term rates on hold at next month's monetary policy meeting (November 2), and perhaps raise rates at the last policy meeting of 2016 (December 14.)

Recent economic data include readings on inflation, consumer confidencehousing, manufacturing, construction, and the services sector.

Still plenty of data between now and November 2, so stay tuned for the latest odds...

=======================

Current Odds
  • Current odds the Prime Rate will continue at 3.5% after the November 2ND, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 91.7% (very likely) with odds at 8.3%  for a 25 basis point (0.25 percentage point) rate increase.

    ========
  • Current odds the Prime Rate will continue at 3.5% after the December 14TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 30.5% (somewhat unlikely), with remaining odds -- 69.5% (somewhat likely) -- for a rate increase between now and December 14TH.

    ========

  • NB: United States Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

The odds associated with fed fund futures contracts -- widely accepted as the best predictor of what the FOMC will do with the benchmark Fed Funds Target Rate -- are constantly changing, so stay tuned for the latest odds.

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