Prime Rate

also known as the Fed, National or United States Prime Rate,
from the interest-rate specialists at www.FedPrimeRate.comSM

Sunday, July 10, 2016

Odds At 98.8% (Extremely Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Remain At 3.5% After The July 27, 2016 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Forecast / Prediction
Prime Rate Forecast
Latest Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, the investors who trade in fed fund futures via the CME Group have odds at 98.8% (as implied by current pricing on contracts) that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate at 0.25% - 0.5% at the July 27TH, 2016 monetary policy meeting (extremely likely.)

The current United States Prime Rate, which went into effect on December 17, 2015, is 3.5%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Despite recent and very healthy reports on jobs (jobless claims and employment), future-market traders are betting that the Fed will leave short-term rates -- including the U.S. Prime Rate -- unchanged at the July 27TH FOMC meeting.

Stay tuned for the latest odds...

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Current Odds
  • Current odds that the Prime Rate will continue at 3.5% after the July 27TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 98.8% (extremely likely.)

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  • Current odds that the Prime Rate will continue at 3.5% after the September 21ST, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 93% (very likely.)

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  • Current odds that the Prime Rate will continue at 3.5% after the November 2ND, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 93% (very likely.)

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  • Current odds that the Prime Rate will continue at 3.5% after the December 14TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 75.4% (somewhat likely), with a 22.5% chance of a 25 basis point (0.25 percentage point) rate increase, and a 0.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut.

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  • NB: United States Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

The odds associated with fed fund futures contracts -- widely accepted as the best predictor of what the FOMC will do with the benchmark Fed Funds Target Rate -- are constantly changing, so stay tuned for the latest odds.

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Sunday, June 26, 2016

Odds At 92.8% (Very Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Continue At 3.5% After The July 27, 2016 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Forecast / Prediction
Prime Rate Forecast
Latest Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, the investors who trade in fed fund futures via the CME Group have odds at 92.8% (as implied by current pricing on contracts) that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate at 0.25% - 0.5% at the July 27TH, 2016 monetary policy meeting (very likely.)

The current United States Prime Rate, which went into effect on December 17, 2015, is 3.5%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Brexit
Brexit
The results of United Kingdom referendum on leaving the European shocked many, and shocked financial markets too, causing significant heartburn around the world.

It was close, with 51.9% voting to leave, and 48.1% voting to stay.

The news caused a significant shift in interest-rate futures.  Not only are traders certain that the Fed will not raise short-term rates, including the U.S. Prime Rate, on July 27, but they are now pricing in a 7.2% chance the Fed will cut the Prime Rate back down to 3.25% next month.

Stay tuned for the latest odds...

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Current Odds
  • Current odds that the Prime Rate will continue at 3.5% after the July 27TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 92.8% (very likely.)

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  • Current odds that the Prime Rate will continue at 3.5% after the September 21ST, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 92.8% (very likely.)

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  • Current odds that the Prime Rate will continue at 3.5% after the November 2ND, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 91.1% (very likely.)

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  • Current odds that the Prime Rate will continue at 3.5% after the December 14TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 71.0% (somewhat likely), with a 23.2% chance of a rate increase, and a 5.3% chance of a rate cut.

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  • Current odds that the Prime Rate will continue at 3.5% after the February 1ST, 2017 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 69.7% (somewhat likely), with a 24.1% chance of a rate increase, and a 5.2% chance of a rate cut.

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  • NB: United States Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

The odds associated with fed fund futures contracts -- widely accepted as the best predictor of what the FOMC will do with the benchmark Fed Funds Target Rate -- are constantly changing, so stay tuned for the latest odds.

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Friday, June 17, 2016

Odds At 12% (Not Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Rise At The July 27, 2016 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Forecast / Prediction
Prime Rate Forecast
Latest Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, the investors who trade in fed fund futures via the CME Group have odds at 12% (as implied by current pricing on contracts) that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate by at least 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point) at the July 27TH, 2016 monetary policy meeting (not likely.)

The current United States Prime Rate, which went into effect on December 17, 2015, is 3.5%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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The latest odds reflect recent readings on jobs, inflationwages, GDPmanufacturing, crude oil and housing.

Stay tuned for the latest economic data, and the latest odds.

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Current Odds

  • Current odds that the Prime Rate (currently 3.5%) will rise by at least 25 basis points at the July 27TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 12% (not likely.)

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  • Current odds that the Prime Rate (currently 3.5%) will rise by at least 25 basis points at the September 21ST, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 22% (not likely.)

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  • Current odds that the Prime Rate (currently 3.5%) will rise by at least 25 basis points at the November 2ND, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 24% (not likely.)

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  • Current odds that the Prime Rate (currently 3.5%) will rise by at least 25 basis points at the December 14TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 46% (on the fence.)

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  • Current odds that the Prime Rate (currently 3.5%) will rise by at least 25 basis points at the February 1ST, 2017 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 48% (on the fence.)

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  • NB: United States Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

The odds associated with fed fund futures contracts -- widely accepted as the best predictor of what the FOMC will do with the benchmark Fed Funds Target Rate -- are constantly changing, so stay tuned for the latest odds.


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