Odds At 87.6% (Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Continue At 3.5% After The November 2, 2016 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting
|Prime Rate Forecast|
As of right now, the investors who trade in fed fund futures via the CME Group have odds at 87.6% (as implied by current pricing on contracts) that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate at 0.25% - 0.5% at tomorrow's monetary policy meeting (likely.)
The current United States Prime Rate, which went into effect on December 17, 2015, is 3.5%.
NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)
If the November 2ND meeting included a press conference, then the odds on a rate hike for that meeting would be higher...But it doesn't.
- Current odds the Prime Rate will continue at 3.5% after the November 2ND, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 87.6% (likely) with 12.4% odds on a 25 basis point (0.25 percentage point) rate increase.
- Current odds the Prime Rate will continue at 3.5% after the December 14TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 41.6% (somewhat unlikely), with remaining odds for a rate increase.
- NB: United States Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)
The odds associated with fed fund futures contracts -- widely accepted as the best predictor of what the FOMC will do with the benchmark Fed Funds Target Rate -- are constantly changing, so stay tuned for the latest odds.
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