United States Prime Rate

also known as the Fed, National or United States Prime Rate,
from the interest-rate specialists at www.FedPrimeRate.comSM

Friday, June 12, 2020

Odds At 100% (Certain) The United States Prime Rate Will Hold At 3.25% After The July 29, 2020 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction
Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate at the current 0.00% - 0.25% at the July 29TH, 2020 monetary policy meeting, and keep the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) at 3.25%.

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The current U.S. Prime Rate was lowered from 4.25% to the current 3.25% on March 15TH, 2020.

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The Labor Department reported that initial claims for unemployment benefits declined from 1,897,000 for the week that ended on May 30TH, to 1,542,000 for the week that ended on June 6TH.  Encouraging news for sure.

But the COVID-19 crisis is still very much with us. Yesterday, in the United States, there were 20,486 new cases, and 834 new deaths.

So the Fed isn't going to do anything with short-term rates any time soon, and is probably going to be on hold into 2022 (only two FOMC members see the Fed raising rates at some point during 2022; see dot plot below.)

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CHART: Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance - June 6, 2020 Update
CHART: Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
June 6, 2020 Update
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CHART: FOMC Dot Plot - June 10, 2020
CHART: FOMC Dot Plot - June 10, 2020
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Coronavirus COVID-19 Reminder:

Symptoms of COVID-19, which may appear 2-14 days after exposure, include:
  • Fever
  • Cough
  • Shortness of breath
Emergency warning signs for COVID-19 include:
  • Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath
  • Persistent pain or pressure in the chest
  • New confusion or inability to arouse
  • Bluish lips or face

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Stay tuned for the latest odds, and for current U.S. economic data (inflation, jobs, economic growth, wages, etc.) 


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Current Odds

  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will remain at the current 3.25% after the July 29TH, 2020 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain.)

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Wednesday, June 10, 2020

Fifth FOMC Meeting of 2020 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Remains At 3.25%

U.S. Prime Rate Remains at 3.25%
United States Prime Rate
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its fifth monetary policy meeting of 2020 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to maintain the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 0% - 0.25%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) remains at 3.25%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):


"...The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

The coronavirus outbreak is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. The virus and the measures taken to protect public health have induced sharp declines in economic activity and a surge in job losses. Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices are holding down consumer price inflation. Financial conditions have improved, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term. In light of these developments, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.

The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including information related to public health, as well as global developments and muted inflation pressures, and will use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy. In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the stance of monetary policy, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

To support the flow of credit to households and businesses, over coming months the Federal Reserve will increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace to sustain smooth market functioning, thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions. In addition, the Open Market Desk will continue to offer large-scale overnight and term repurchase agreement operations. The Committee will closely monitor developments and is prepared to adjust its plans as appropriate.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles..."

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>> Economic Projections <<

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Friday, May 15, 2020

Odds At 100% (Certain) The United States Prime Rate Will Continue At 3.25% After The June 10, 2020 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction
Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate at the current 0.00% - 0.25% at the June 10TH, 2020 monetary policy meeting, and keep the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) at 3.25%.

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The current U.S. Prime Rate was lowered from 4.25% to the current 3.25% on March 15TH, 2020.

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According to the Labor Department, the unemployment rate in the USA jumped from 4.4% in March, to 14.7% in April, with a loss of an estimated 20,500,000 jobs.


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Coronavirus COVID-19 Reminder:

Symptoms of COVID-19, which may appear 2-14 days after exposure, include:
  • Fever
  • Cough
  • Shortness of breath
Emergency warning signs for COVID-19 include:
  • Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath
  • Persistent pain or pressure in the chest
  • New confusion or inability to arouse
  • Bluish lips or face

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Stay tuned for the latest odds, and for current U.S. economic data (inflation, jobs, economic growth, wages, etc.) 


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Current Odds

  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will continue at the current 3.25% after the June 10TH, 2020 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain.)

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Wednesday, April 29, 2020

Fourth FOMC Meeting of 2020 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Continues At 3.25%

U.S. Prime Rate Continues at 4.75%
United States Prime Rate
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its fourth monetary policy meeting of 2020 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to maintain the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 0% - 0.25%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) remains at 3.25%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.
The coronavirus outbreak is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. The virus and the measures taken to protect public health are inducing sharp declines in economic activity and a surge in job losses. Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices are holding down consumer price inflation. The disruptions to economic activity here and abroad have significantly affected financial conditions and have impaired the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.
The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term. In light of these developments, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.
The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including information related to public health, as well as global developments and muted inflation pressures, and will use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy. In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the stance of monetary policy, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.
To support the flow of credit to households and businesses, the Federal Reserve will continue to purchase Treasury securities and agency residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning, thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions. In addition, the Open Market Desk will continue to offer large-scale overnight and term repurchase agreement operations. The Committee will closely monitor market conditions and is prepared to adjust its plans as appropriate.
Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.
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Saturday, March 21, 2020

Odds At 100% (Certain) The United States Prime Rate Will Continue At 3.25% After The April 29, 2020 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction
Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate at the current 0.00% - 0.25% at the April 29TH, 2020 monetary policy meeting, and keep the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) at 3.25%.

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The current U.S. Prime Rate was lowered from 4.25% to the current 3.25% on March 15TH, 2020.

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Coronavirus COVID-19 Reminder:

Symptoms of COVID-19, which may appear 2-14 days after exposure, include:
  • Fever
  • Cough
  • Shortness of breath
Emergency warning signs for COVID-19 include:
  • Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath
  • Persistent pain or pressure in the chest
  • New confusion or inability to arouse
  • Bluish lips or face

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Stay tuned for the latest odds, and for current U.S. economic data (inflation, jobs, economic growth, wages, etc.) 


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Current Odds

  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will continue at the current 3.25% after the April 29TH, 2020 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain.)

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Sunday, March 15, 2020

Third and EMERGENCY FOMC Meeting of 2020 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Is Cut To 3.25%

Novel COVID-19 CoronaVirus Threat: United States Prime Rate EMERGENCY Cut To 3.25%
Novel COVID-19 Coronavirus Threat:
United States Prime Rate
EMERGENCY Cut To 3.25%
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned a third and EMERGENCY monetary policy meeting of 2020 and, due to the continuing threat of the Novel COVID-19 Coronavirus, has cut the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate from 1.00% - 1.25%, to 0% - 0.25%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) is now  3.25%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...The coronavirus outbreak has harmed communities and disrupted economic activity in many countries, including the United States. Global financial conditions have also been significantly affected. Available economic data show that the U.S. economy came into this challenging period on a strong footing. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the labor market remained strong through February and economic activity rose at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although household spending rose at a moderate pace, business fixed investment and exports remained weak. More recently, the energy sector has come under stress. On a 12‑month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The effects of the coronavirus will weigh on economic activity in the near term and pose risks to the economic outlook. In light of these developments, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals. This action will help support economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation returning to the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective.

The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including information related to public health, as well as global developments and muted inflation pressures, and will use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy. In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the stance of monetary policy, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

The Federal Reserve is prepared to use its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and thereby promote its maximum employment and price stability goals. To support the smooth functioning of markets for Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities that are central to the flow of credit to households and businesses, over coming months the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $500 billion and its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $200 billion. The Committee will also reinvest all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. In addition, the Open Market Desk has recently expanded its overnight and term repurchase agreement operations. The Committee will continue to closely monitor market conditions and is prepared to adjust its plans as appropriate.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; and Randal K. Quarles. Voting against this action was Loretta J. Mester, who was fully supportive of all of the actions taken to promote the smooth functioning of markets and the flow of credit to households and businesses but preferred to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 to 3/4 percent at this meeting.

In a related set of actions to support the credit needs of households and businesses, the Federal Reserve announced measures related to the discount window, intraday credit, bank capital and liquidity buffers, reserve requirements, and—in coordination with other central banks—the U.S. dollar liquidity swap line arrangements. More information can be found on the Federal Reserve Board's website..."

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Saturday, March 14, 2020

Odds At 95% (Very Likely) The United States Prime Rate Will Be Cut To 3.25% At The March 18, 2020 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction
Prime Rate Forecast

At the March 18, 2020 FOMC monetary policy meeting, and in response to the continuing and global Novel COVID-19 coronavirus emergency, we believe the Fed will take the rare and extraordinary step of cutting its key benchmark interest rate --  the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate -- by 100 basis points, to a target range of 0% - 0.25%.  This cut would cause the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) to be lowered to 3.25%. We put current odds on this happening at 95%.


FYI, and from the CDC website, symptoms of COVID-19, which may appear 2-14 days after exposure, include:
  • Fever
  • Cough
  • Shortness of breath
Emergency warning signs for COVID-19 include:
  • Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath
  • Persistent pain or pressure in the chest
  • New confusion or inability to arouse
  • Bluish lips or face

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The current U.S. Prime Rate was lowered from 4.75% to 4.25% on March 3RD, 2020.

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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Stay tuned for the latest odds, and for current U.S. economic data (inflation, jobs, economic growth, wages, etc.) 


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Current Odds

  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will be cut to 3.25% at the March 18TH, 2020 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 95% (very likely.)

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Tuesday, March 03, 2020

Second and EMERGENCY FOMC Meeting of 2020 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Is Cut To 4.25%

Novel COVID-19 CoronaVirus Threat: United States Prime Rate EMERGENCY Cut To 4.25%
Novel COVID-19 CoronaVirus Threat:
United States Prime Rate
EMERGENCY Cut To 4.25%
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned a second and EMERGENCY monetary policy meeting of 2020 and, due to the growing threat of the Novel COVID-19 CoronaVirus, has taken the very rare, inter-meeting step of cutting the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate from 1.50% - 1.75%, to 1.00% - 1.25%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) is now  4.25%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong. However, the coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity. In light of these risks and in support of achieving its maximum employment and price stability goals, the Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point, to 1 to 1‑1/4 percent. The Committee is closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economic outlook and will use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles...."

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Wednesday, February 05, 2020

Odds At 90% (Likely) The United States Prime Rate Will Continue At 4.75% After The March 18, 2020 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Prediction
Prime Rate Prediction
Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 90% the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to maintain the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate at the current 1.50% - 1.75% at the March 18TH, 2020 monetary policy meeting (likely), and keep the United States Prime Rate at 4.75%.

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The current U.S. Prime Rate was lowered from 5.00% to 4.75% on October 30TH, 2019.

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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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  • After five consecutive months of contraction for the American manufacturing sector, the Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) from the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) came in at 50.9% for January 2020, indicating expansion.
  • Inflation, however, remains muted, and below the Federal Reserve's 2% objective. The latest reading on the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index was 1.6% year-on-year.
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Stay tuned for the latest odds, and for current U.S. economic data (inflation, jobs, economic growth, wages, etc.) 


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Current Odds

  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will hold at 4.75% after the March 18TH, 2020 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 90% (likely.)

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Wednesday, January 29, 2020

First FOMC Meeting of 2020 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Continues At 4.75%

U.S. Prime Rate Continues at 4.75%
United States Prime Rate
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its first monetary policy meeting of 2020 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to maintain the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 1.50% - 1.75%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) remains at 4.75%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although household spending has been rising at a moderate pace, business fixed investment and exports remain weak. On a 12‑month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1‑1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. The Committee judges that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate to support sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation returning to the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective. The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including global developments and muted inflation pressures, as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles..."

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