Prime Rate

also known as the Fed, National or United States Prime Rate,
from the interest-rate specialists at www.FedPrimeRate.comSM

Wednesday, September 05, 2018

Odds At 100% (Certain) The United States Prime Rate Will Rise To 5.25% After The September 26, 2018 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate, from the current 1.75% - 2.00%, to 2.00% - 2.25%, at the September 26TH, 2018 monetary policy meeting.

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The current Prime Rate, which went into effect on June 14TH, 2018, is 5.00%.

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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Stay tuned for the latest odds and economic data, and especially for news on inflation, jobs, economic growth and wages...

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Current Odds

  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will rise to 5.25% after the September 26TH, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain.)

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Friday, August 10, 2018

Odds At 93.6% (Likely) The United States Prime Rate Will Rise To 5.25% After The September 26, 2018 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, odds are at 93.6% the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate , from the current 1.75% - 2.00%, to 2.00% - 2.25%, at the September 26TH, 2018 monetary policy meeting (likely.)

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The current Prime Rate, which went into effect on June 14TH, 2018, is 5.00%.

=======

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Stay tuned for the latest odds and economic data, and especially for news on inflation, jobs, economic growth and wages...

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Current Odds

  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will rise to 5.25% after the September 26TH, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 93.6% (likely), with remaining odds -- 6.4%  (unlikely) -- the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at the current 5.00%.


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Wednesday, August 01, 2018

Fifth FOMC Meeting of 2018 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Continues At 5.00%

United States Prime Rate continues at 5.00%
U.S. Prime Rate
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its fifth monetary policy meeting of 2018 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to leave the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 1.75% - 2.00%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) will continue at the current 5.00%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Household spending and business fixed investment have grown strongly. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remain near 2 percent. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1-3/4 to 2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; John C. Williams, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles..."

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Monday, June 18, 2018

Odds At 98% (Very Likely) The United States Prime Rate Will Hold At 5.00% After The August 1, 2018 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, odds are at 98.0% the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate  at 1.75% - 2.00% at the August 1ST, 2018, monetary policy meeting (very likely.)

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The current Prime Rate, which went into effect on June 14TH, 2018, is 5.00%.

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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Stay tuned for the latest odds and economic data, and especially for news on inflation, jobs, economic growth and wages...


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Current Odds

  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will hold at 5.00% after the August 1ST, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 98%  (very likely), with 2% odds (very unlikely) the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 5.25%.

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  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will rise to 5.25% after the September 26TH, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 85% (somewhat likely) with 13.3% odds (not likely) the U.S. Prime Rate will hold at 5.00%, and 1.7% odds (very unlikely) the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 5.50%.

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Wednesday, June 13, 2018

United States Prime Rate Rises to 5.00%

United States Prime Rate Is Now 5.00%
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve has just adjourned its fourth monetary policy meeting of 2018, and, in accordance with our forecast, has voted to raise the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate from 1.50% - 1.75% to 1.75% - 2.00%.  Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) is now 5.00%, effective tomorrow (June 14, 2018.)

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Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined. Recent data suggest that growth of household spending has picked up, while business fixed investment has continued to grow strongly. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have moved close to 2 percent. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-3/4 to 2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Loretta J. Mester; Randal K. Quarles; and John C. Williams..."
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Thursday, May 10, 2018

Odds At 100% (Certain) The United States Prime Rate Will Rise To 5% After The June 13, 2018 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, odds are at 100% the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate , from 1.50% - 1.75%, to 1.75% - 2.00%, at the June 13TH, 2018 monetary policy meeting (certain.)

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The current Prime Rate, which went into effect on March 21ST, 2018, is 4.75%.

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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Stay tuned for the latest odds and economic data, and especially for news on inflation, jobs, economic growth and wages...

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Current Odds

  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will rise to 5.00% after the June 13TH, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100%  (certain.)


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Wednesday, May 02, 2018

Third FOMC Meeting of 2018 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Continues At 4.75%

United States Prime Rate continues at 4.75%
U.S. Prime Rate
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its third monetary policy meeting of 2018 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to leave the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 1.50% - 1.75%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) will continue at the current 4.75%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Recent data suggest that growth of household spending moderated from its strong fourth-quarter pace, while business fixed investment continued to grow strongly. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have moved close to 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace in the medium term and labor market conditions will remain strong. Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to run near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Loretta J. Mester; Randal K. Quarles; and John C. Williams..."

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Monday, April 30, 2018

Odds At 92.8% (Likely) The United States Prime Rate Will Hold At 4.75% After The May 2, 2018 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, odds are at 92.8% the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate  at 1.50% - 1.75% at the May 2ND, 2018 monetary policy meeting (likely.)

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The current Prime Rate, which went into effect on March 21ST, 2018, is 4.75%.

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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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At 1.9%, year-on-year, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index came in just shy of the Fed's 2% inflation target during March 2018.


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Stay tuned for the latest economic data, and for Wednesday's FOMC press release...


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Current Odds

  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will remain at 4.75% after the May 2ND, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 92.8%  (likely), with 7.2% odds (unlikely) the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 5.00%.

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  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will rise to 5.00% after the June 13TH, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 88.1%  (likely), with 11.5% odds (not likely) the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 5.25%, and 0.4% odds (very unlikely) the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 5.50%.

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Monday, April 09, 2018

Odds At 98.4% (Very Likely) The United States Prime Rate Will Hold At 4.75% After The May 2, 2018 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, odds are at 98.4% the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate  at 1.50% - 1.75% at the May 2ND, 2018 monetary policy meeting (very likely.)

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The current Prime Rate, which went into effect on March 21ST, 2018, is 4.75%.

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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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On Friday, we learned that the U.S. economy added a yawning 103,000 jobs during March 2018, and:

  • While the U-3 (headline) unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, the U-6 rate improved from 8.2% during February, to 8.0% in March 2018.  U-6 was 8.8% during March 2017.
  • Average hourly earnings rose by +0.3% month-to-month, and by +2.72% year-on-year.  Average weekly earnings advanced by +3.32% Y/Y.
  • Month-to-month, the Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate edged lower, from 63.0% to 62.9%.

Year-on-year, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index crept a bit closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target; from 1.5% to 1.6% during February 2018.

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Stay tuned for the latest economic data, and the latest odds...


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Current Odds

  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will remain at 4.75% after the May 2ND, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 98.4%  (very likely), with 1.6% odds (very unlikely) the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 5.00%.

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  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will rise to 5.00% after the June 13TH, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 83.9%  (somewhat likely), with 14.8% odds (not likely) the U.S. Prime Rate will hold at the current 4.75%, and 1.3% odds (very unlikely) the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 5.25%.

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Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Odds At 95.9% (Very Likely) The United States Prime Rate Will Hold At 4.75% After The May 2, 2018 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, odds are at 95.9% the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate  at 1.50% - 1.75% at the May 2ND, 2018 monetary policy meeting (very likely.)

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The current Prime Rate, which went into effect on March 21ST, 2018, is 4.75%.

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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Jerome H. Powell's term as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is four years.

Here is Mr. Powell's first press conference as Fed Boss:

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Stay tuned for the latest economic data, and the latest odds...


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Current Odds

  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will remain at 4.75% after the May 2ND, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 95.9%  (very likely), with 4.1% odds (very unlikely) the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 5.00%.

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  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will rise to 5.00% after the June 13TH, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 79.8%  (somewhat likely), with 16.8% odds (not likely) the U.S. Prime Rate will hold at the current 4.75%, and 3.4% odds (very unlikely) the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 5.25%.

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