Prime Rate

also known as the Fed, National or United States Prime Rate,
from the interest-rate specialists at www.FedPrimeRate.comSM

Monday, April 09, 2018

Odds At 98.4% (Very Likely) The United States Prime Rate Will Hold At 4.75% After The May 2, 2018 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, odds are at 98.4% the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate  at 1.50% - 1.75% at the May 2ND, 2018 monetary policy meeting (very likely.)

=======

The current Prime Rate, which went into effect on March 21ST, 2018, is 4.75%.

=======

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

=======


On Friday, we learned that the U.S. economy added a yawning 103,000 jobs during March 2018, and:

  • While the U-3 (headline) unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, the U-6 rate improved from 8.2% during February, to 8.0% in March 2018.  U-6 was 8.8% during March 2017.
  • Average hourly earnings rose by +0.3% month-to-month, and by +2.72% year-on-year.  Average weekly earnings advanced by +3.32% Y/Y.
  • Month-to-month, the Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate edged lower, from 63.0% to 62.9%.

Year-on-year, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index crept a bit closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target; from 1.5% to 1.6% during February 2018.

=======

Stay tuned for the latest economic data, and the latest odds...


=======

Current Odds

  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will remain at 4.75% after the May 2ND, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 98.4%  (very likely), with 1.6% odds (very unlikely) the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 5.00%.

    ==========
  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will rise to 5.00% after the June 13TH, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 83.9%  (somewhat likely), with 14.8% odds (not likely) the U.S. Prime Rate will hold at the current 4.75%, and 1.3% odds (very unlikely) the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 5.25%.

    ==========

=========

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,

>  SITEMAP  <

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Odds At 95.9% (Very Likely) The United States Prime Rate Will Hold At 4.75% After The May 2, 2018 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, odds are at 95.9% the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate  at 1.50% - 1.75% at the May 2ND, 2018 monetary policy meeting (very likely.)

=======

The current Prime Rate, which went into effect on March 21ST, 2018, is 4.75%.

=======

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

=======

Jerome H. Powell's term as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is four years.

Here is Mr. Powell's first press conference as Fed Boss:

=======


=======

Stay tuned for the latest economic data, and the latest odds...


=======

Current Odds

  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will remain at 4.75% after the May 2ND, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 95.9%  (very likely), with 4.1% odds (very unlikely) the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 5.00%.

    ==========
  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will rise to 5.00% after the June 13TH, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 79.8%  (somewhat likely), with 16.8% odds (not likely) the U.S. Prime Rate will hold at the current 4.75%, and 3.4% odds (very unlikely) the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 5.25%.

    ==========

=========


Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,

>  SITEMAP  <

United States Prime Rate Rises to 4.75%

U.S. Prime Rate Is Now 4.75%
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve has just adjourned its second monetary policy meeting of 2018, and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to raise the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate from 1.25% - 1.50% to 1.50% - 1.75%.  Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) is now 4.75%, effective tomorrow (March 22, 2018.)

============

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been strong in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Recent data suggest that growth rates of household spending and business fixed investment have moderated from their strong fourth-quarter readings. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have continued to run below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have increased in recent months but remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The economic outlook has strengthened in recent months. The Committee expects that, with further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace in the medium term and labor market conditions will remain strong. Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to move up in coming months and to stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Loretta J. Mester; Randal K. Quarles; and John C. Williams..."
==========
==========




==========

Labels: , , , , , , , , ,

>  SITEMAP  <

Saturday, March 17, 2018

Odds Now At 94.4% (Very Likely) The Fed Will Raise The United States Prime Rate To 4.75% At The March 21, 2018 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, odds are at 94.4% that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate  from the current 1.25% - 1.50%, to 1.50% - 1.75% at the  March 21ST, 2018 monetary policy meeting (very likely.)

=======

The current Prime Rate, which went into effect on December 14TH, 2017 is 4.50%.

=======

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

=======

Economic data influencing the latest odds include readings on Inflation, Jobs, Productivity, GDPRetail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing, Manufacturing, The Services Sector, Consumer Sentiment, Consumer Confidence, Markets, Business Optimism, and  Economic Activity.


  • On Friday, the Labor Department reported that job openings hit an all-time record high during January 2018 -- 6,312,000 -- an increase of 645,000, or 11.38%, above the December 2017 figure (5,667,000.)

    Hires, on the other hand, rose from 5,524,000 in December, to 5,583,000 in January, a far more modest increase of 59,000, or 1.068%.

Stay tuned for the latest odds...



=======

Current Odds

  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will rise to 4.75% after the March 21ST, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 94.4%  (very likely), with 5.6% odds (very unlikely) the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at 4.50%.

    ==========

=========

Labels: , , , , , , , , ,

>  SITEMAP  <

Monday, February 19, 2018

Odds Are Back Up To 83.1% (Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Rise To 4.75% After The March 21, 2018 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, odds are back up to 83.1% that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate  from the current 1.25% - 1.50%, to 1.50% - 1.75% at the  March 21ST, 2018 monetary policy meeting (likely.)

=======

The current Prime Rate, which went into effect on December 14TH, 2017 is 4.50%.

=======

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

=======

Economic data influencing the latest odds include readings on Inflation, Jobs, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing, Manufacturing, The Services Sector, Energy, Business Optimism, Economic Activity and The Yield Curve.

Stay tuned for the latest odds...


=======

Current Odds

  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 4.75% after the March 21ST, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 83.1%  (likely), with 16.9% odds (not likely) the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at 4.50%.

    ==========

=========


Labels: , , , , , , , , ,

>  SITEMAP  <

Monday, February 05, 2018

Odds At 69.0% (Somewhat Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Rise To 4.75% After The March 21, 2018 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, odds are at 69.0%  that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate  from 1.25% - 1.50% to 1.50% - 1.75% at the  March 21ST, 2018 monetary policy meeting (somewhat likely.)

=======

The current Prime Rate, which went into effect on December 14TH, 2017 is 4.50%.

=======

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

=======


  • Average hourly earnings rose by 2.8857% year-on-year, according to the January jobs report, which has many thinking that healthy wage inflation has finally kicked in.  But, Y/Y, average weekly earnings rose by 2.586%, which is in line with the 2.6% Y/Y figure reported in the  Employment Cost Index for Q4 2017.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) lost 1,175.21 points today (-4.605%) and closed at 24,345.75, as investors worried about the business cycle and inflation.

    Since closing at a record high on January 26, 2018 -- 26,616.71 -- the DJIA has declined 8.532%.

    The broader S and P 500 Index has given up 7.795% since the January 26 record close, while the NASDAQ Composite slid 7.171%.

    The yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note ended the day at 2.77%.
=======

=======

Responding To Widespread Consumer Abuses And Compliance Breakdowns By Wells Fargo, Federal Reserve Restricts Wells' Growth Until Firm Improves Governance And Controls. Concurrent With Fed Action, Wells To Replace Three Directors By April, One By Year End

From Friday's Federal Reserve press release:

"...Responding to recent and widespread consumer abuses and other compliance breakdowns by Wells Fargo, the Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced that it would restrict the growth of the firm until it sufficiently improves its governance and controls. Concurrently with the Board's action, Wells Fargo will replace three current board members by April and a fourth board member by the end of the year.

In addition to the growth restriction, the Board's consent cease and desist order with Wells Fargo requires the firm to improve its governance and risk management processes, including strengthening the effectiveness of oversight by its board of directors. Until the firm makes sufficient improvements, it will be restricted from growing any larger than its total asset size as of the end of 2017. The Board required each current director to sign the cease and desist order.

'We cannot tolerate pervasive and persistent misconduct at any bank and the consumers harmed by Wells Fargo expect that robust and comprehensive reforms will be put in place to make certain that the abuses do not occur again,' Chair Janet L. Yellen said. 'The enforcement action we are taking today will ensure that Wells Fargo will not expand until it is able to do so safely and with the protections needed to manage all of its risks and protect its customers.'

In recent years, Wells Fargo pursued a business strategy that prioritized its overall growth without ensuring appropriate management of all key risks. The firm did not have an effective firm-wide risk management framework in place that covered all key risks. This prevented the proper escalation of serious compliance breakdowns to the board of directors.

The Board's action will restrict Wells Fargo's growth until its governance and risk management sufficiently improves but will not require the firm to cease current activities, including accepting customer deposits or making consumer loans.

Emphasizing the need for improved director oversight of the firm, the Board has sent letters to each current Wells Fargo board member confirming that the firm's board of directors, during the period of compliance breakdowns, did not meet supervisory expectations. Letters were also sent to former Chairman and Chief Executive Officer John Stumpf and past lead independent director Stephen Sanger stating that their performance in those roles, in particular, did not meet the Federal Reserve's expectations..."
=======

Stay tuned for the latest odds...


=======

Current Odds

  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 4.75% after the March 21ST, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 69.0%, with 31.0% odds the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at 4.50%.

    ==========

=========

Labels: , , , , , , , , ,

>  SITEMAP  <

Wednesday, January 31, 2018

Odds At 83.1% (Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Rise To 4.75% After The March 21, 2018 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, odds are at 83.1%  that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate  from 1.25% - 1.50% to 1.50% - 1.75% at the  March 21ST, 2018 monetary policy meeting (likely.)

=======

The current Prime Rate, which went into effect on December 14TH, 2017 is 4.50%.

=======

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

=======


Jerome Hayden Powell
Jerome Hayden Powell

Federal Open Market Committee Unanimously Selects Jerome H. Powell To Serve As Its Chairman, Effective February 3, 2018

From today's FOMC press release:

"...The Federal Open Market Committee, at its annual organizational meeting this week, unanimously selected Jerome H. Powell to serve as its Chairman, effective February 3, 2018. He is scheduled to be sworn in as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on the next business day at approximately 9 a.m. EST February 5..."

=======



=======

Stay tuned for the latest odds...


=======

Current Odds

  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 4.75% after the March 21ST, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 83.1%  (likely), with 16.9% odds (not likely) the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at 4.50%.

    ==========

=========

Labels: , , , , , , , , ,

>  SITEMAP  <

First FOMC Meeting of 2018 Adjourned: U.S. Prime Rate Holds At 4.5%

United States Prime Rate continues at 4.50%
U.S. Prime Rate
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve has just adjourned its first monetary policy meeting of 2018 and, in accordance with our forecast, has voted to leave the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 1.25% - 1.50%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) will continue at the current 4.50%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate. Gains in employment, household spending, and business fixed investment have been solid, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have continued to run below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have increased in recent months but remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will remain strong. Inflation on a 12‑month basis is expected to move up this year and to stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1-1/4 to 1‑1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Randal K. Quarles; and John C. Williams..."

==========

Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,

>  SITEMAP  <

Sunday, January 28, 2018

Odds At 93.8% (Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Continue At 4.50% After The January 31, 2018 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, odds are at 93.8%  that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate  at 1.25% - 1.50% at the  January 31ST, 2018 monetary policy meeting (likely.)

=======

The current Prime Rate, which went into effect on December 14TH, 2017 is 4.50%.

=======

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

=======

Economic data influencing the latest odds include readings on Gross Domestic Product, Inflation, Jobs, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing, Energy and The Yield Curve.

Stay tuned for Wednesday's FOMC press release... 

=======

Current Odds

  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will remain at 4.50% after the January 31ST, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 93.8%  (likely), with 6.2% odds (unlikely) that the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 4.75%.

    ==========

=========

Labels: , , , , , , , , ,

>  SITEMAP  <

Friday, December 22, 2017

Odds At 97.9% (Very Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Continue At 4.50% After The January 31, 2018 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, odds are at 97.9%  that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate  at 1.25% - 1.50% at the  January 31ST, 2018 monetary policy meeting (very likely.)

=======

The current Prime Rate, which went into effect on December 14TH, 2017 is 4.50%.

=======

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

=======


Economic data influencing the latest odds include readings on Gross Domestic Product, Inflation, Jobs, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing Starts, The Yield Curve, Consumer Sentiment, Existing Home Sales and New Homes Sales.

Stay tuned...
=======

Current Odds

  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will remain at 4.50% after the January 31ST, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 97.9%  (very likely), with 2.1% odds (very unlikely) that the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 4.75%.

    ==========

=========

Labels: , , , , , , , , ,

>  SITEMAP  <





FedPrimeRate.com
Entire Website © 2018 FedPrimeRate.comSM


This website is neither affiliated nor associated with The United States Federal Reserve in any way.
Information in this website is provided for educational purposes only. The owners of this website
make no warranties with respect to any and all content contained within this website. Consult a
financial professional before making important decisions related to any investment or loan
product, including, but not limited to, business loans, personal loans, education loans, first
or second mortgages, credit cards, car loans or any type of insurance.