Odds At 12% (Not Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Rise At The March 16, 2016 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Forecast - Predictions

Latest Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, the investors who trade in fed fund futures via the CME Group have odds at 12% (as implied by current pricing on contracts) that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate by at least 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point) at the March 16^TH, 2016 monetary policy meeting (not likely.)

The current United States Prime Rate, which went into effect on December 17, 2015, is 3.5%.

NB: US Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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The latest odds reflect news that the U.S. economy grew by an estimated 0.7% during December 2015, and at an estimated 1.8% pace during all of 2015.

Other news influencing traders today: Japan's central bank decided to adopt negative, short-term interest rates (more on this here.)  Stay tuned!

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Current Odds

• Current odds that the Prime Rate (currently 3.5%) will rise by at least 25 basis points at the March 16^TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 12% (not likely.)
  
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• Current odds that the Prime Rate (currently 3.5%) will rise by at least 25 basis points at the April 27^TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 16% (not likely.)
  
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• Current odds that the Prime Rate (currently 3.5%) will rise by at least 25 basis points at the June 15^TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 25% (not likely.)
  
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• Current odds that the Prime Rate (currently 3.5%) will rise by at least 25 basis points at the July 27^TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 27% (not likely.)
  
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• Current odds that the Prime Rate (currently 3.5%) will rise by at least 25 basis points at the September 21^ST, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 36% (not likely.)
  
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• Current odds that the Prime Rate (currently 3.5%) will rise by at least 25 basis points at the November  2^ND, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 40% (not likely.)
  
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• Current odds that the Prime Rate (currently 3.5%) will rise by at least 25 basis points at the December  14^ND, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 45% (not likely.)
  
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• Current odds that the Prime Rate (currently 3.5%) will rise by at least 25 basis points at the February 1^ST, 2017 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 49% (on the fence.)
  
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• NB: US Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

The odds related to fed fund futures contracts -- widely accepted as the best predictor of what the FOMC will do with the benchmark Fed Funds Target Rate -- are constantly changing, so stay tuned for the latest odds.

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