Odds Remain At 98.0% (Very Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Continue At 4.25% After The November 1, 2017 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Forecast

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, odds are at 98.0%  that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate at 1.00% - 1.25% at the November 1^ST, 2017 monetary policy meeting (very likely.)

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The current Prime Rate, which went into effect on June 15, 2017, is 4.25%.

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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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• The Commerce Department's first estimate of third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in at 3.0%.  Economist were expecting a figure closer to 2.5%.
  
• The October final result for the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) was reported at 100.7, a 5.8885% monthly increase, and a 15.4817% year-on-year bump. For the ICS, this is a high not seen since early 2004.

These latest economic data have boosted the odds for an end-of-year (December 13,2017) rate increase.

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Current Odds

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at 4.25% after the November 1^ST, 2017 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 98.0%  (very likely), with  2.0% odds on a rate increase (very unlikely.)
  
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• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at 4.25% after the December 13^TH, 2017 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 3.8%  (very unlikely), with 96.2% odds (very likely) that the U.S. Prime Rate will be at least 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point) higher.
  
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• NB: United States Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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