Odds Now At 80% (Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Be Cut to 7.25% At the September 17, 2025 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 80% (likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to lower the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) by 25 basis points (BPS) to 4.00% - 4.25% at the September 17^TH, 2025 monetary policy meeting, which would lower the U.S. Prime Rate to 7.25%.

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The Latest

 

• Markets tanked on Friday, in response to reciprocal tariffs. 😐
  
  
• According the Labor Department, an estimated 73,000 nonfarm jobs were created last month. This anemic number, along with the recent trend, has dramatically boosted odds that the Fed will cut short-term rates on September 17, 2025.
  
  

  

  Nonfarm Payrolls - JOBS - July 2023 THRU July 2025

  
  
• Year-on-year, the Core PCE Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, moved sideways: +2.8% for both June, 2024 and June, 2025.
  

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Stay tuned...

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The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 7.50% on December 18, 2024.

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SUMMARY

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will be cut to  7.25% at the September 17^TH, 2025 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 80% (likely.)

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