Prime Rate

also known as the Fed, National or United States Prime Rate,
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Friday, April 29, 2016

Odds At 11% (Very Unlikely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Rise At The June 15, 2016 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

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As of right now, the investors who trade in fed fund futures via the CME Group have odds at 11% (as implied by current pricing on contracts) that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate by at least 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point) at the June 15TH, 2016 monetary policy meeting (very unlikely.)

The current United States Prime Rate, which went into effect on December 17, 2015, is 3.5%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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The latest odds were influenced by recent economic data, including readings on GDP, inflationjobs, US Treasury yields, and consumer sentiment.


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Current Odds


  • Current odds that the Prime Rate (currently 3.5%) will rise by at least 25 basis points at the June 15TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 11% (very unlikely.)

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  • Current odds that the Prime Rate (currently 3.5%) will rise by at least 25 basis points at the July 27TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 28% (not likely.)

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  • Current odds that the Prime Rate (currently 3.5%) will rise by at least 25 basis points at the September 21ST, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 41% (not likely.)

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  • Current odds that the Prime Rate (currently 3.5%) will rise by at least 25 basis points at the November  2ND, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 44% (on the fence.)

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  • NB: United States Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

The odds associated with fed fund futures contracts -- widely accepted as the best predictor of what the FOMC will do with the benchmark Fed Funds Target Rate -- are constantly changing, so stay tuned for the latest odds.

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