Prime Rate

also known as the Fed, National or United States Prime Rate,
from the interest-rate specialists at www.FedPrimeRate.comSM

Sunday, July 10, 2016

Odds At 98.8% (Extremely Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Remain At 3.5% After The July 27, 2016 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Forecast / Prediction
Prime Rate Forecast
Latest Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, the investors who trade in fed fund futures via the CME Group have odds at 98.8% (as implied by current pricing on contracts) that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate at 0.25% - 0.5% at the July 27TH, 2016 monetary policy meeting (extremely likely.)

The current United States Prime Rate, which went into effect on December 17, 2015, is 3.5%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Despite recent and very healthy reports on jobs (jobless claims and employment), future-market traders are betting that the Fed will leave short-term rates -- including the U.S. Prime Rate -- unchanged at the July 27TH FOMC meeting.

Stay tuned for the latest odds...

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Current Odds
  • Current odds that the Prime Rate will continue at 3.5% after the July 27TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 98.8% (extremely likely.)

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  • Current odds that the Prime Rate will continue at 3.5% after the September 21ST, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 93% (very likely.)

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  • Current odds that the Prime Rate will continue at 3.5% after the November 2ND, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 93% (very likely.)

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  • Current odds that the Prime Rate will continue at 3.5% after the December 14TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 75.4% (somewhat likely), with a 22.5% chance of a 25 basis point (0.25 percentage point) rate increase, and a 0.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut.

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  • NB: United States Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

The odds associated with fed fund futures contracts -- widely accepted as the best predictor of what the FOMC will do with the benchmark Fed Funds Target Rate -- are constantly changing, so stay tuned for the latest odds.

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