Odds At 98.4% (Very Likely) The United States Prime Rate Will Hold At 4.75% After The May 2, 2018 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Forecast

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, odds are at 98.4% the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate  at 1.50% - 1.75% at the May 2^ND, 2018 monetary policy meeting (very likely.)

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The current Prime Rate, which went into effect on March 21^ST, 2018, is 4.75%.

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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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On Friday, we learned that the U.S. economy added a yawning 103,000 jobs during March 2018, and:

• While the U-3 (headline) unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, the U-6 rate improved from 8.2% during February, to 8.0% in March 2018.  U-6 was 8.8% during March 2017.
• Average hourly earnings rose by +0.3% month-to-month, and by +2.72% year-on-year.  Average weekly earnings advanced by +3.32% Y/Y.
• Month-to-month, the Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate edged lower, from 63.0% to 62.9%.

Year-on-year, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index crept a bit closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target; from 1.5% to 1.6% during February 2018.

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Stay tuned for the latest economic data, and the latest odds...

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Current Odds

• Current odds the United States Prime Rate will remain at 4.75% after the May 2^ND, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 98.4%  (very likely), with 1.6% odds (very unlikely) the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 5.00%.
  
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• Current odds the United States Prime Rate will rise to 5.00% after the June 13^TH, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 83.9%  (somewhat likely), with 14.8% odds (not likely) the U.S. Prime Rate will hold at the current 4.75%, and 1.3% odds (very unlikely) the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 5.25%.
  
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• NB: United States Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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