United States Prime Rate

also known as the Fed, National or United States Prime Rate,
from the interest-rate specialists at www.FedPrimeRate.comSM

Thursday, February 08, 2024

Odds Now At 90% (Very Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Continue At 8.50% After The March 20, 2024 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 90% (very likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to keep the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at  5.25% - 5.50% at the March 20TH, 2024 monetary policy meeting, with the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) holding at 8.50%.

 =======
 
The U.S. economy remains strong, despite the relatively high cost of borrowing. Both short- and long-term interest rates are restrictive right now, and have been for some time. This interest-rate environment should have helped to cool the American consumer down, but so far, that hasn't happened.

The economy grew at a healthy 3.3% during Q4, 2023, while the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7% last month, with an estimated 353,000 non-farm jobs added to the American workforce.

So, at this point, it's unlikely the Fed will lower the benchmark fed funds target rate on March 20TH, as many were hoping might happen.

Stay tuned...
=======

The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.50% on July 26, 2023.

=======

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

======= 

Current Odds
  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at 8.50% after the March 20TH, 2024 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 90% (very likely.)
=========

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Wednesday, January 31, 2024

First FOMC Meeting of 2024 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Continues at 8.50%

U.S. Prime Rate Continues at 8.50%
United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its first monetary policy meeting of 2024 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to keep the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% - 5.50%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) continues at 8.50%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have moderated since early last year but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and
inflation goals are moving into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency
mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of 
monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.
.."

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 The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.50% on July 26, 2023.

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Wednesday, January 03, 2024

Odds Now At 90% (Very Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Continue At 8.50% After The January 31, 2024 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 90% (very likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to keep the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at  5.25% - 5.50% at the January 31ST, 2024 monetary policy meeting, with the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) remaining at 8.50%.

 =======

 
Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y), the Core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, fell from 3.4% during October 2023, to 3.2% during November, 2023.  It was 4.8% back in November of 2022.

 =======

Right now, we have odds at 65% (on the fence) the Fed will cut short-term rates, including the U.S. Prime Rate, by 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point) at the March 20, 2024 FOMC meeting

Stay tuned...
=======

The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.50% on July 26, 2023.

=======

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

======= 

Current Odds
  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at 8.50% after the January 31ST, 2024 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 90% (very likely.)
=========

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Wednesday, December 13, 2023

Eighth and Final FOMC Meeting of 2023 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Holds at 8.50%

U.S. Prime Rate Remains at 8.50%
United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its eighth and final monetary policy meeting of 2023 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to keep the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% - 5.50%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) continues at 8.50%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has slowed from its strong pace in the third quarter. Job gains have moderated since earlier in the year but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.

The Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of any additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Adriana D. Kugler; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.
.."

==========

 The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.50% on July 26, 2023.

==========
  

 ==========


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Friday, December 01, 2023

Odds Now At 100% (Certain) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Continue At 8.50% After The December 13, 2023 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to keep the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at  5.25% - 5.50% at the December 13TH, 2023 monetary policy meeting, with the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) holding at 8.50%.

 

Rate hikes have been aggressive since May of 2022, so remaining on hold is the right thing to do. The last thing the Fed wants to do is drag the economy down into a deep recession.  A soft landing remains the target.

 
Stay tuned...
 
=======

The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.50% on July 26, 2023.

=======

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

======= 

Current Odds
  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at 8.50% after the December 13TH, 2023 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain.)
=========

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Thursday, November 02, 2023

Seventh FOMC Meeting of 2023 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Continues at 8.50%

U.S. Prime Rate Continues at 8.50%
United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its seventh monetary policy meeting of 2023 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to keep the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% - 5.50%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) continues at 8.50%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Recent indicators suggest that economic activity expanded at a strong pace in the third quarter. Job gains have moderated since earlier in the year but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, 
hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. The Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of 
Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the 
economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Adriana D. Kugler; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.
.."

==========

 The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.50% on July 26, 2023.

==========

 

 ==========


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Wednesday, October 11, 2023

Odds Now At 90% (Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Hold At 8.50% After The November 1, 2023 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 90% (likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to keep the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at  5.25% - 5.50% at the November 1ST, 2023 monetary policy meeting, with the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) holding at 8.50%.

 

  • Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y), job openings are down by 588,000, or -5.77%.

  • Y-o-Y, hires are down by 621,000, or -9.59%.

Meanwhile, Y-o-Y, the closely watched Core PCE fell from 4.3% in July, to 3.9% during August, 2023.  It was 4.9% back in August of 2022.
 
The taming of inflation continues, as does the culling jobs. Stay tuned...
 
=======

The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.50% on July 26, 2023.

=======

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

======= 

Current Odds
  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at 8.50% after the November 1ST, 2023 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 90% (likely.)
=========

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Wednesday, September 20, 2023

Sixth FOMC Meeting of 2023 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Holds at 8.50%

U.S. Prime Rate Holds at 8.50%
United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its sixth monetary policy meeting of 2023 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to keep the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% - 5.50%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) remains at 8.50%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have slowed in recent months but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, 
hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. The Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of 
monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on
labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Adriana D. Kugler; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.
.."

==========

 The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.50% on July 26, 2023.

==========

 

 ==========


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Saturday, August 05, 2023

Odds Now At 80% (Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Hold At 8.50% After The September 20, 2023 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 80% (likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to keep the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at  5.25% - 5.50% at the September 20TH, 2023 monetary policy meeting, with the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) holding at 8.50%.

 
Year-on-year, the closely watched Core PCE fell from 4.6% in May, to 4.1% during June, 2023.  It was 4.8% back in June of 2022.

Clear progress has been made on the quest for that 2% Fed comfort zone, but since the current cycle of rate hikes, which began back in March of last year, has been aggressive, a pause is likely, as the Fed doesn't want to risk causing a deep and painful recession.

Stay tuned...
 
=======

The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.50% on July 26, 2023.

=======

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

======= 

Current Odds
  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at 8.50% after the September 20TH, 2023 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 80% (likely.)
=========

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Wednesday, July 26, 2023

Fifth FOMC Meeting of 2023 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Rises to 8.50%

U.S. Prime Rate Rises to 8.50%
United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its fifth monetary policy meeting of 2023 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to raise the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate to 5.25% - 5.50%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) is now 8.50%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. The Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.

In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller..."

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Odds Now At 100% (Certain) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Rise to 8.50% After This Afternoon's FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate to  5.25% - 5.50% at today's monetary policy meeting, with the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) rising to 8.50%.

 =======

Many economists keep warning that a recession may be in the offing, but working  America and consumer America are in defiance.

Employment remains very strong, while the latest Consumer Confidence reading (for this month) proves that Americans are still spending like...Americans.

Interesting note: Since the beginning of this year, government has been hiring more than any other sector. :o(

Stay tuned...


============
 
The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.25% on May 3, 2023.

=======

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

======= 

Current Odds
  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 8.50% after today's FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain.)
=========


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Wednesday, June 21, 2023

Odds Now At 80% (Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Rise to 8.50% After The July 26, 2023 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 80% (likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate to  5.25% - 5.50% at the July 26TH, 2023 monetary policy meeting, with the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) rising to 8.50%.

 
Last week, America got much needed good news on prices, in the form of the May 2023 Import / Export Price Indexes. Year-on-year, import prices declined by 5.9%, while export prices eased by 10.1%.
 
But at 4.7%, the latest reading on the Fed's preferred inflation gauge -- the Core PCE -- was still uncomfortably above the central bank's 2% target.  So the Fed is probably going to nudge short-term rates up by 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point) next month.

Stay tuned...
 
=======

The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.25% on May 3, 2023.

=======

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

======= 

Current Odds
  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 8.50% after the July 26TH, 2023 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 80% (likely.)
=========


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Wednesday, June 14, 2023

Fourth FOMC Meeting of 2023 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Holds at 8.25%

U.S. Prime Rate Continues at 8.25%
United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its fourth monetary policy meeting of 2023 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to keep the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 5.00% - 5.25%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) remains at 8.25%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a modest pace. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity,
hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5 to 5-1/4 percent. Holding the target range steady at this meeting allows the Committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of
Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on
labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.
.."

==========

 

 ==========

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Saturday, May 13, 2023

Odds Now At 90% (Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Hold At 8.25% After The June 14, 2023 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 90% (likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to keep the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at  5.00% - 5.25% at the June 14TH, 2023 monetary policy meeting, with the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) holding at 8.25%.

 
=======

INFLATION!
 
Both the CPI and the Core PCE remain above the Fed's comfort zone, but since rate increases take time to ripple through the economy, chances are pretty good that the Fed will choose to pause (do nothing) at the June 14TH FOMC meeting.

Meanwhile, the jobs picture (Employment Situation, JOLTS, Jobless Claims, etc.) isn't helping.

Stay tuned...
 
=======

The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.25% on May 3, 2023.

=======

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

======= 

Current Odds
  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at 8.25% after the June 14TH, 2023 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 90% (likely.)
=========


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Wednesday, May 03, 2023

Third FOMC Meeting of 2023 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Rises to 8.25%

U.S. Prime Rate Rises to 8.25%
United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its third monetary policy meeting of 2023 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to raise the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate to 5.00% - 5.25%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) is now 8.25%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Economic activity expanded at a modest pace in the first quarter. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 5 to 5-1/4 percent. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate to return inflation to 2% over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2% objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.
.."

==========

 

 ==========


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Sunday, April 23, 2023

Odds Now At 100% (Certain) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Rise To 8.25% After The May 3, 2023 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate to  5.00% - 5.25% at the May 3RD, 2023 monetary policy meeting, with the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) rising to 8.25%.

 
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The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.00% on March 22, 2023.

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Recent inflation reads should prompt the Fed to raise short-term rates again next month (May 3RD.) The last time the U.S. Prime Rate was raised to 8.25% was June 29, 2006.

Stay tuned...
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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Current Odds
  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 8.25% after the May 3RD, 2023 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain.)
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Friday, March 24, 2023

Odds Now At 100% (Certain) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Continue At 8.00% After The May 3, 2023 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to keep the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at  4.75% - 5.00% at the May 3, 2023 monetary policy meeting, with the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) holding at 8.00%.

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The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.00% on March 22, 2023.

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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Current Odds
  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at 8.00% after the May 3, 2023 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain.)
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Wednesday, March 22, 2023

Second FOMC Meeting of 2023 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Rises to 8.00%

U.S. Prime Rate Rises to 8.00%
United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its second monetary policy meeting of 2023 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to raise the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate to 4.75% - 5.00%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) is now 8.00%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have picked up in recent months and are running at a robust pace; the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects is uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-3/4 to 5 percent. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy. The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the extent of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and
inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller..
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