United States Prime Rate: Odds At 100% (Certain) The United States Prime Rate Will Be Cut To 5.25% After The July 31, 2019 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Forecast

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to lower the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate from 2.25% - 2.50% to 2.00% - 2.25% at the July 31^ST, 2019 monetary policy meeting (certain.)

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The current U.S. Prime Rate, which went into effect on December 20^TH, 2018, is 5.50%.

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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Here's a clip from Fed Boss Jerome H. Powell's Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress (July 10,2019.) Note text in bold:

"...At the time of our May meeting, we were mindful of the ongoing crosscurrents from global growth and trade, but there was tentative evidence that these crosscurrents were moderating. The latest data from China and Europe were encouraging, and there were reports of progress in trade negotiations with China. Our continued patient stance seemed appropriate, and the Committee saw no strong case for adjusting our policy rate.

Fed Chairman Jerome H. Powell

Since our May meeting, however, these crosscurrents have reemerged, creating greater uncertainty. Apparent progress on trade turned to greater uncertainty, and our contacts in business and agriculture report heightened concerns over trade developments. Growth indicators from around the world have disappointed on net, raising concerns that weakness in the global economy will continue to affect the U.S. economy. These concerns may have contributed to the drop in business confidence in some recent surveys and may have started to show through to incoming data.

In our June meeting statement, we indicated that, in light of increased uncertainties about the economic outlook and muted inflation pressures, we would closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would act as appropriate to sustain the expansion. Many FOMC participants saw that the case for a somewhat more accommodative monetary policy had strengthened. Since then, based on incoming data and other developments, it appears that uncertainties around trade tensions and concerns about the strength of the global economy continue to weigh on the U.S. economic outlook. Inflation pressures remain muted..."

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Stay tuned for the latest odds, and for current U.S. economic data (inflation, jobs, economic growth, wages, etc.)

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Current Odds

Current odds the United States Prime Rate will be cut to 5.25% after the July 31^ST, 2019 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain.)

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