United States Prime Rate

also known as the Fed, National or United States Prime Rate,
from the interest-rate specialists at www.FedPrimeRate.comSM

Friday, June 12, 2020

Odds At 100% (Certain) The United States Prime Rate Will Hold At 3.25% After The July 29, 2020 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction
Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate at the current 0.00% - 0.25% at the July 29TH, 2020 monetary policy meeting, and keep the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) at 3.25%.


The current U.S. Prime Rate was lowered from 4.25% to the current 3.25% on March 15TH, 2020.


The Labor Department reported that initial claims for unemployment benefits declined from 1,897,000 for the week that ended on May 30TH, to 1,542,000 for the week that ended on June 6TH.  Encouraging news for sure.

But the COVID-19 crisis is still very much with us. Yesterday, in the United States, there were 20,486 new cases, and 834 new deaths.

So the Fed isn't going to do anything with short-term rates any time soon, and is probably going to be on hold into 2022 (only two FOMC members see the Fed raising rates at some point during 2022; see dot plot below.)


CHART: Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance - June 6, 2020 Update
CHART: Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
June 6, 2020 Update

CHART: FOMC Dot Plot - June 10, 2020
CHART: FOMC Dot Plot - June 10, 2020

Coronavirus COVID-19 Reminder:

Symptoms of COVID-19, which may appear 2-14 days after exposure, include:
  • Fever
  • Cough
  • Shortness of breath
Emergency warning signs for COVID-19 include:
  • Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath
  • Persistent pain or pressure in the chest
  • New confusion or inability to arouse
  • Bluish lips or face




Stay tuned for the latest odds, and for current U.S. economic data (inflation, jobs, economic growth, wages, etc.) 


Current Odds

  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will remain at the current 3.25% after the July 29TH, 2020 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain.)



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