Odds At 100% (Certain) The United States Prime Rate Will Hold At 3.25% After The July 29, 2020 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate at the current 0.00% - 0.25% at the July 29^TH, 2020 monetary policy meeting, and keep the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) at 3.25%.

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The current U.S. Prime Rate was lowered from 4.25% to the current 3.25% on March 15^TH, 2020.

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The Labor Department reported that initial claims for unemployment benefits declined from 1,897,000 for the week that ended on May 30^TH, to 1,542,000 for the week that ended on June 6^TH.  Encouraging news for sure.

But the COVID-19 crisis is still very much with us. Yesterday, in the United States, there were 20,486 new cases, and 834 new deaths.

So the Fed isn't going to do anything with short-term rates any time soon, and is probably going to be on hold into 2022 (only two FOMC members see the Fed raising rates at some point during 2022; see dot plot below.)

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CHART: Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
June 6, 2020 Update

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CHART: FOMC Dot Plot - June 10, 2020

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Coronavirus COVID-19 Reminder:

Symptoms of COVID-19, which may appear 2-14 days after exposure, include:

• Fever
• Cough
• Shortness of breath

Emergency warning signs for COVID-19 include:

• Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath
• Persistent pain or pressure in the chest
• New confusion or inability to arouse
• Bluish lips or face

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--  Stop The Spread of Germs (PDF) --

-- What To Do If You Are Sick (PDF) --

-- Novel COVID-19 Coronavirus UPDATES --

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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Stay tuned for the latest odds, and for current U.S. economic data (inflation, jobs, economic growth, wages, etc.) 

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Current Odds

• Current odds the United States Prime Rate will remain at the current 3.25% after the July 29^TH, 2020 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain.)
  
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• NB: United States Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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