United States Prime Rate: Odds At 100% (Certain) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Rise To At Least 4.50% After The June 15, 2022 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate, from the current 0.75% - 1.00%, to at least 1.25% - 1.50%, at the June 15^TH, 2022 monetary policy meeting, with the U.S. Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) rising to at least 4.50% (with the possibility of an increase to 4.75%.)

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Fed Boss Jerome Powell said this at the May 4 post-FOMC-meeting announcement:

"...Sure. So 75 basis point increase is not something the committee is actively considering. What we are doing is we raised 50 basis points today. And we said that, again, assuming that economic and financial conditions evolve in ways that are consistent with our expectations, there's a broad sense on the committee that additional 50 basis increases should be on, 50 basis points should be on the table for the next couple of meetings. So we're going to make those decisions at the meetings, of course, and we'll be paying close attention to the incoming data and the evolving outlook, as well as to financial conditions..."

Nevertheless, a 75 basis point (0.75 percentage point) increase is possible for the June 15^TH meeting, due in large part to Thursday's Productivity and Labor Costs report for Q1, 2022. Year-on-year, productivity declined by 0.6% (bad), while unit labor costs increased by 7.2% (even worse!)

Moreover, according to the April 2022 Jobs report, average hourly earnings rose by a hefty 5.464% compared to a year ago, and the most recent Core PCE inflation reading was 5.2%.

Stay tuned......

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The current U.S. Prime Rate was raised to the current 4.00% on May 4^TH, 2022.

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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Stay tuned for the latest odds, and for current U.S. economic data (inflation, jobs, economic growth, wages, etc.)

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Current Odds

Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to at least 4.50% after theJune 15^TH, 2022 FOMC monetary policy meeting, with the possibility of an increase to 4.75%: 100% (certain.)