Odds Now At 90% (VERY LIKELY) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Remain at 8.50% After The July 31, 2024 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 90% (very likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to keep the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at  5.25% - 5.50% at the July 31^ST, 2024 monetary policy meeting, with the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) holding at 8.50%.

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Futures Market Has No Idea Where Where Short-Term Rates Will Be at The End of This Year
  

Current Interest-Rate-Futures Market Predictions for
the December 18, 2024 FOMC Policy Meeting

Nice △pyramid△ this 👆🔺👆 chart is, n'est-ce pas?

Right now, a 44% majority believe that the Fed will have cut rates by 50 basis points (0.50 percentage point) by the end of 2024.  If they're right, that would put the U.S. Prime Rate at an even 8.00% at year-end.

• From the May Jobs Report: Year-on-year (Y-O-Y), Average Weekly Earnings advanced by +4.08%, while the reading on Average Weekly Earnings was +3.78%
  
  
  • The U-3 (official) jobless rate edged higher, from 3.9% during April, to 4.0% during May, 2024.
  
  
• Y-O-Y, the Core CPI for May, 2024 came in at +3.42%.
   

Stay tuned...

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The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.50% on July 26, 2023.

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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Current Odds

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will remain at 8.50% after the July 31^ST, 2024 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 90% (very likely.)
  

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