Odds Now At 90% (LIKELY) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Continue at 6.75% After the June 17, 2026 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 90% (likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to leave the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) at the current 3.50% - 3.75% at the June 17^TH, 2026 monetary policy meeting, which would leave the United States Prime Rate at 6.75%.

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lnflation, and the U.S. Economy

• Year-on-year (Y-o-Y), the Core PCE Price Index, for the month of March, moved from +3.0% to +3.2%. 😐⏫😑
  
  
• Y-o-Y, for the month of March, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from +2.41% to +3.26%. 😶
  
  
  • The Core CPI, which leaves out food an energy, rose from 2.46% to +2.6%.
    
    
  
  
  
• For the week ending April 24, 2026, crude oil inventories declined by -13,400,000 Barrels (-1.54%.)
  
  
  • NYMEX crude for future delivery is currently @ $102.50 per barrel.😕
• Month-on-month, the Conference Board®'s Leading Economic Index for March, 2026 was 97.3 (-0.6 point.)
  
        --> Y-o-Y, it was -3.09% (-3.1 points.)
• Y-o-Y, for the month of March, manufacturing declined, from +1.3% to +0.5%, according to the Federal Reserve. Overall industrial production slipped from +1.4% to +0.7%.
  
  
• According to the Commerce Department's first estimate, the U.S. economy grew by +2.0% during the first quarter of 2026.
  
  
• The most recent 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) for the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was -0.03.
  
  
  

Stay tuned...

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The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 6.75% on December 10, 2025.

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SUMMARY

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will remain at 6.75% after the June 17^TH, 2026 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 90% (likely.)

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