Odds Now At 95% (VERY LIKELY) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Be Cut By At Least 25 Basis Points (0.25 Percentage Point) at the September 18, 2024 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting
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| Prime Rate Prediction |
Prime Rate Forecast
As of right now, our odds are at 95% (very likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to LOWER the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) by at least 25 basis points (bps) at the September 18TH, 2024 monetary policy meeting.
If a 25 bps cut happens, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) would decline from the current 8.50%, to 8.25%.
There is also a very real chance that the FOMC will cut by 50 bps next month, setting the TRFFR at 4.75% - 5.00%. This would result in a U.S. Prime Rate of 8.00%, a level not seen since March of 2023.
- Year-on-year (Y-O-Y), the Core PCE Price Index for June, 2024 came in at +2.6%.
- Y-O-Y, the Core CPI for June, 2024 came in at +3.27%.=======
Recessions for The American Economy
Right now, there is an inversion in USD LIBOR rates. Current rates (August 2, 2024) are as follows:
The 6-month rate is lower than the 3-month rate, which = economic concerns ahead!
- 1-Month LIBOR: 5.46652%
- 3-Month LIBOR: 5.48934%
- 6-Month LIBOR: 5.43589%
Is LIBOR a better prognosticator than the Treasury yield curve or the LEI? Our thesis = 👍 Yes! 🙌
- Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East have become so volatile that evacuation orders have been issued.
Current Odds
- Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will be cut to 8.25% or lower at the September 18TH, 2024 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 95% (very likely.)
Labels: banking, banks, disinflation, fed_funds_target_rate, Fed_Prime_Rate, housing, Housing_Inflation, inflation, money, odds, prime_rate, prime_rate_forecast, prime_rate_prediction
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posted by Steve Brown | 8/04/2024 08:20:00 PM
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