Odds Now At 80% (LIKELY) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Remain at 6.75% After the January 28, 2026 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 80% (likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to leave the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) at the current 3.50% - 3.75% at the January 28^TH, 2026 monetary policy meeting, which would leave the United States Prime Rate at 6.75%.

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Jobs + Retail + Inflation

• According the Labor Department, an estimated 64,000 nonfarm jobs were created during November, 2025. The October 2025 reading was revised to -130,000. 😐
  
  
  The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. 
  
  
  
• Year-on-year (Y-o-Y), the Core PCE Price Index was 3.0% during September, 2025.
  
  
  Y-o-Y, the September, 2024 reading was 3.1%.
  
  
  
• Y-o-Y, the Retail Sales reading for October, 2025 was a decent +3.47%.
  
  
  The month-on-month reading, however, was a very anemic +0.026%.

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Stay tuned...

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The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 6.75% on December 10, 2025.

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SUMMARY

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will remain at 6.75% after the January 28^TH, 2026 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 80% (likely.)

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