Odds Now At 50% (On The Fence) the U.S. Prime Rate Will Continue at 6.75% After the July 29, 2026 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 50% (on the fence) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to leave the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) at the current 3.50% - 3.75% at the July 29^TH, 2026 monetary policy meeting, which would leave the United States Prime Rate at 6.75%.

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lnflation Remains Sticky

• Year-on-year (Y-o-Y), the Core PCE Price Index, for the month of May, moved from +3.3% to +3.4%. 😐⏫😑
  
  
• Y-o-Y, for the month of May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from +3.81% to +4.25%. 😓
  
  
  • The Core CPI, which leaves out food an energy, rose from 2.75% to +2.85%.

Stay tuned...

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The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 6.75% on December 10, 2025.

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SUMMARY

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will remain at 6.75% after the July 29^TH, 2026 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 50% (on the fence.)

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