Odds At 92.8% (Very Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Remain At 3.5% After Tomorrow's FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Forecast

Latest Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, the investors who trade in fed fund futures via the CME Group have odds at 92.8% (as implied by current pricing on contracts) that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate at 0.25% - 0.5% at tomorrow's monetary policy meeting (very likely.)

The current United States Prime Rate, which went into effect on December 17, 2015, is 3.5%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

========

Traders are still betting the Fed will do nothing with short-term rates tomorrow, despite Friday's first estimate on third quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which, at 2.9% annualized, exceeded forecasts.

Yesterday we learned that year-on-year inflation, as measured by the Core PCE Price Index, moved sideways during September, at 1.7%, stubbornly below the Fed's 2% target.

Stay tuned for tomorrow's Fed press release on rates...

=======================

Current Odds

• Current odds the Prime Rate will continue at 3.5% after tomorrow's FOMC monetary policy meeting: 92.8% (very likely) with odds at 7.2%  for a 25 basis point (0.25 percentage point) rate increase.
  
  ========
• Current odds the Prime Rate will continue at 3.5% after the December 14^TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 22% (unlikely), with remaining odds -- 78% (somewhat likely) -- for at least one rate increase between now and December 14^TH.
  
  ========
  
  
• NB: United States Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

The odds associated with fed fund futures contracts -- widely accepted as the best predictor of what the FOMC will do with the benchmark Fed Funds Target Rate -- are constantly changing, so stay tuned for the latest odds.

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- >  SITEMAP  <