Odds At 90% (Likely) The United States Prime Rate Will Be Cut To 4.75% After The October 30, 2019 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Forecast

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 90% the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to cut the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate, from the current 1.75% - 2.00%, to  1.50% - 1.75% at the October 30^TH, 2019 monetary policy meeting (likely.)

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The current U.S. Prime Rate, which went into effect on September 19^TH, 2019, is 5.00%.

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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Although the headline (U-3) unemployment rate fell to 3.5% last month, a 50-year low, there were two key negatives in the September jobs report:

• Average Hourly Earnings were at $28.09 last month; the month-on-month change was -$0.01 (-0.036%.)
• Average Weekly Earnings were at $966.30 last month; the month-to-month change was -$0.34 (-0.035%.)

Adding to economic worries: for two months in a row, the manufacturing sector contracted, according to the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®.)  The Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for August 2019 was 49.1%, while the September reading was 47.8%.  For the PMI, any figure below 50% implies contraction.

And then there's the trade war...

 
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Stay tuned for the latest odds, and for current U.S. economic data (inflation, jobs, economic growth, wages, etc.) 

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Current Odds

• Current odds the United States Prime Rate will be cut to 4.75% after the October 30^TH, 2019 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 90% (likely.)
  
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• NB: United States Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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