Odds Now At 80% (Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Rise to 8.50% After The July 26, 2023 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 80% (likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate to  5.25% - 5.50% at the July 26^TH, 2023 monetary policy meeting, with the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) rising to 8.50%.

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Very Welcome Disinflation!

 

Last week, America got much needed good news on prices, in the form of the May 2023 Import / Export Price Indexes. Year-on-year, import prices declined by 5.9%, while export prices eased by 10.1%.

 

But at 4.7%, the latest reading on the Fed's preferred inflation gauge -- the Core PCE -- was still uncomfortably above the central bank's 2% target.  So the Fed is probably going to nudge short-term rates up by 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point) next month.

Stay tuned...

 

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The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.25% on May 3, 2023.

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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Current Odds

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 8.50% after the July 26^TH, 2023 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 80% (likely.)
  

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