Odds Now At 95% (Very Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Be Cut to 7.50% at the December 18, 2024 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 95% (very likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to lower the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) by 0.25 percentage point (25 basis points [bps]) at the December 18^TH, 2024 monetary policy meeting.


A 25 bps cut would cause Prime to decrease, from the current 7.75%, to  7.50%. 

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• Year-on-year (Y-O-Y), the  CORE Consumer Price Index edged lower, from 3.33% during October, to 3.32% during November, 2024.
  
  
• Y-O-Y, from September to October, 2024, the CORE PCE Price Index rose from 2.7% to 2.8%.
  
  
  
• On the jobs front, Y-O-Y, the U-3 (Headline) Unemployment Rate ticked up, from 4.1% during October, 2024, to 4.2% during November.
  
  It was 3.7% during November, 2023.
  

• Y-O-Y, the reading on Average Hourly Earnings was +4.03%, while Average Weekly Earnings was +3.73%.

Stay tuned...

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The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 7.75% on November 7, 2024.

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SUMMARY

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will be cut to 7.50% at the December 18^TH, 2024 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 95% (very likely.)
  

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