Odds Now At 70% (Somewhat Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Continue at 7.50% After the May 7, 2025 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 70% (somewhat likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to leave the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) at 4.25% - 4.50% at the May 7^TH, 2025 monetary policy meeting, leaving the U.S. Prime Rate at the current 7.50%.

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Tariff Worries

The NASDAQ Composite Index ended the week at 15,587.79, down 22.73% from its December 16, 2024 record-high of 20,173.89: 🐻 Bear market.📉

Meanwhile, the DJIA and S & P 500 Indexes slipped closer to bear-market territory; both ended the week in the correction zone.

Investors have responded to the current administration's expanding tariff war.

Some A+ insights from a recent Fortune.com article:

"...The biggest winners from the tariffs, [Ford CEO Jim Farley] suggested, won’t be domestic automakers but Asian rivals that would face little additional impact..."

"...With 25% increases in the cost of parts, inflation would surge in maintenance and repair and insurance, which vehicle owners are already struggling to handle..."

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• And here's a detailed "Tariff Timeline" compiled by the superlative folks at USA Today.
  

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DOGE Dismissals

Job cuts surged last month.

Total layoffs rose from a massive 172,017 cuts during February, to a whopping 275,240 during March of this year...😓

 

DOGE-related terminations were 216,670... ▽ CHARTS ▽

CHART: Job Cuts - March 2025 UPDATE
Copyright © 2025 Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc.

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CHART: Job Cuts by Reason - March 2025 UPDATE
Copyright © 2025 Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc.

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Stay tuned...

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The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 7.50% on December 18, 2024.

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SUMMARY

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at the current 7.50% after the May 7^TH, 2025 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 70% (somewhat likely.)

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