Odds Now At 80% (Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Hold At 8.50% After The September 20, 2023 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 80% (likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to keep the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at  5.25% - 5.50% at the September 20^TH, 2023 monetary policy meeting, with the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) holding at 8.50%.

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The Disinflation Continues

 

Year-on-year, the closely watched Core PCE fell from 4.6% in May, to 4.1% during June, 2023.  It was 4.8% back in June of 2022.

Clear progress has been made on the quest for that 2% Fed comfort zone, but since the current cycle of rate hikes, which began back in March of last year, has been aggressive, a pause is likely, as the Fed doesn't want to risk causing a deep and painful recession.

Stay tuned...

 

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The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.50% on July 26, 2023.

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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Current Odds

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at 8.50% after the September 20^TH, 2023 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 80% (likely.)
  

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