Odds Now At 90% (LIKELY) the United States Prime Rate Will RISE to 7.00% At the September 16, 2026 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 90% (likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to raise the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) by 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point), from the current 3.50% - 3.75%, to 3.75% - 4.00%, at the September 16^TH, 2026 monetary policy meeting, which would cause the United States Prime Rate to rise to 7.00%.

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The Fed Can No Longer Stall On a Rate Increase...

• Year-on-year (Y-o-Y), the Core PCE Price Index, for the month of July, moved sideways, from +3.3% to +3.3%. 
  
  
• Y-o-Y, for the month of August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) edged higher,  from +3.36% to +3.4%. 
  
  
  • The Core CPI, which leaves out food and energy, edged lower, from 2.48% to +2.45%.

• Y-o-Y, for the month of August, the Producer Price Index surged from 4.8% to 5.4%.
  
  
• Crude oil inventories continue to dwindle. As of last week, inventories were -120,500,000 barrels (-14.52%) compared to a year ago... 🛢😳🛢
  
  NYMEX WTI Crude Oil for future delivery finished the week @ $99.99 per barrel in New York.
  
  
• According to the latest Employment Situation report, the American economy added 162,000 jobs during August of this year, while the unemployment rate held steady @ 4.1%.
  
  The Civilian Labor Force Participation rate was 61.6%.  During August of 2025, it was 62.3%.  

  Stay tuned...

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The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 6.75% on December 10, 2025.

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SUMMARY

• Current odds the United States Prime Rate will rise to 7.00% after the September 16^TH, 2026 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 90% (likely.)

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