Odds Now At 100% (Certain) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Continue At 8.50% After The December 13, 2023 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to keep the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at  5.25% - 5.50% at the December 13^TH, 2023 monetary policy meeting, with the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) holding at 8.50%.

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If The Disinflation Continues,
The Fed May Be Done with Rate Hikes:

 

• Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y), The October, 2023 The Core Consumer Prices Index (CPI) came in at +4.031%.  It was 6.28% back in October of 2022.
  
  
• Y-o-Y, The October, 2023 Core Producer Prices Index (PPI) came in at +2.9%.
  
  
• Y-o-Y, the Core PCE fell from 3.7% during September, to 3.5% during October, 2023.  It was 5.33% back in October of 2022.
  
  

Rate hikes have been aggressive since May of 2022, so remaining on hold is the right thing to do. The last thing the Fed wants to do is drag the economy down into a deep recession.  A soft landing remains the target.

 

Stay tuned...

 

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The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.50% on July 26, 2023.

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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Current Odds

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at 8.50% after the December 13^TH, 2023 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain.)
  

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