First FOMC Meeting of 2010 Adjourned: U.S. Prime Rate Holds At 3.25%

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve has just adjourned its first monetary policy meeting of 2010 and, in accordance with our most recent forecast, has voted to leave short-term interest rates at their current levels. Therefore, the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate will remain at 0% - 0.25%, and the Wall Street Journal® Prime Rate (also known as the U.S., national or Fed Prime Rate) will remain unchanged at the current 3.25%.

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release:

"...Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the deterioration in the labor market is abating. Household spending is expanding at a moderate rate but remains constrained by a weak labor market, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software appears to be picking up, but investment in structures is still contracting and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Firms have brought inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. While bank lending continues to contract, financial market conditions remain supportive of economic growth. Although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be moderate for a time, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.

With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve is in the process of purchasing $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and about $175 billion of agency debt. In order to promote a smooth transition in markets, the Committee is gradually slowing the pace of these purchases, and it anticipates that these transactions will be executed by the end of the first quarter. The Committee will continue to evaluate its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets.

In light of improved functioning of financial markets, the Federal Reserve will be closing the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, and the Term Securities Lending Facility on February 1, as previously announced. In addition, the temporary liquidity swap arrangements between the Federal Reserve and other central banks will expire on February 1. The Federal Reserve is in the process of winding down its Term Auction Facility: $50 billion in 28-day credit will be offered on February 8 and $25 billion in 28-day credit will be offered at the final auction on March 8. The anticipated expiration dates for the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility remain set at June 30 for loans backed by new-issue commercial mortgage-backed securities and March 31 for loans backed by all other types of collateral. The Federal Reserve is prepared to modify these plans if necessary to support financial stability and economic growth.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L. Kohn; Sandra Pianalto; Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against the policy action was Thomas M. Hoenig, who believed that economic and financial conditions had changed sufficiently that the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted..."

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Futures Market 100% Certain U.S. Prime Rate Will Hold At 3.25% After The January 27 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

I'm not a Christmas person, mainly because of the "consumerism on steroids" aspect of the tradition. However, I do like Christmas music, Christmas cheer and a certain movie that always comes on around Christmas time. No, I'm not talking about the Dickens favorite A Christmas Carol -- though I hold the story in high regard. No, my favorite Christmas movie is It's A Wonderful Life. If someone was to say to me that the 1946 Frank Capra classic is a mediocre or bad movie, I know I'd be talking to either a) a liar or b) someone who needs to see a psychiatrist. I watched it on NBC last month, and, even though I've seen it a few times before, the film still managed to give me a...well, let's call it a sore throat. It's a uniquely American story, and American filmmaking at it's finest.

The movie had a special significance at the end of 2009. The Mr. Potters of the world pocketing massive bonuses while suckling at the teat of the American taxpayer, as unnumbered small business owners struggle for survival.

So when I found a new website with a mission of getting Americans to ditch the big banks and move their money to community-focused financial institutions, I wasn't surprised that the site's creators used clips from It's A Wonderful Life to make the best possible case for "moving your money." I'm am very happy to be able to share this YouTube clip here at the Prime Rate blog:

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As of right now, the investors who trade in fed funds futures at the Chicago Board of Trade have odds at 100% (as implied by current pricing on contracts) that the FOMC will vote to leave the benchmark target range for the Federal Funds Rate at its current level at the January 27^TH, 2010 monetary policy meeting.


Summary of the Latest Prime Rate Forecast:

• Current odds that the Prime Rate will remain at the current 3.25% after the January 27^TH, 2010 FOMC monetary policy meeting is adjourned: 100% (certain)
• NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Federal Funds Target Rate + 3)

The odds related to federal-funds futures contracts -- widely accepted as the best predictor of where the FOMC will take the benchmark Fed Funds Target Rate -- are constantly changing, so stay tuned for the latest odds.

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