Prime Rate

also known as the Fed, National or United States Prime Rate,
from the interest-rate specialists at www.FedPrimeRate.comSM

Wednesday, January 31, 2018

Odds At 83.1% (Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Rise To 4.75% After The March 21, 2018 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, odds are at 83.1%  that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate  from 1.25% - 1.50% to 1.50% - 1.75% at the  March 21ST, 2018 monetary policy meeting (likely.)

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The current Prime Rate, which went into effect on December 14TH, 2017 is 4.50%.

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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Jerome Hayden Powell
Jerome Hayden Powell

Federal Open Market Committee Unanimously Selects Jerome H. Powell To Serve As Its Chairman, Effective February 3, 2018

From today's FOMC press release:

"...The Federal Open Market Committee, at its annual organizational meeting this week, unanimously selected Jerome H. Powell to serve as its Chairman, effective February 3, 2018. He is scheduled to be sworn in as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on the next business day at approximately 9 a.m. EST February 5..."

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Stay tuned for the latest odds...


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Current Odds

  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 4.75% after the March 21ST, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 83.1%  (likely), with 16.9% odds (not likely) the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at 4.50%.

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First FOMC Meeting of 2018 Adjourned: U.S. Prime Rate Holds At 4.5%

United States Prime Rate continues at 4.50%
U.S. Prime Rate
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve has just adjourned its first monetary policy meeting of 2018 and, in accordance with our forecast, has voted to leave the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 1.25% - 1.50%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) will continue at the current 4.50%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate. Gains in employment, household spending, and business fixed investment have been solid, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have continued to run below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have increased in recent months but remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will remain strong. Inflation on a 12‑month basis is expected to move up this year and to stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1-1/4 to 1‑1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Randal K. Quarles; and John C. Williams..."

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Sunday, January 28, 2018

Odds At 93.8% (Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Continue At 4.50% After The January 31, 2018 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, odds are at 93.8%  that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate  at 1.25% - 1.50% at the  January 31ST, 2018 monetary policy meeting (likely.)

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The current Prime Rate, which went into effect on December 14TH, 2017 is 4.50%.

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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Economic data influencing the latest odds include readings on Gross Domestic Product, Inflation, Jobs, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing, Energy and The Yield Curve.

Stay tuned for Wednesday's FOMC press release... 

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Current Odds

  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will remain at 4.50% after the January 31ST, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 93.8%  (likely), with 6.2% odds (unlikely) that the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 4.75%.

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