Prime Rate

also known as the Fed, National or United States Prime Rate,
from the interest-rate specialists at www.FedPrimeRate.comSM

Monday, June 18, 2018

Odds At 98% (Very Likely) The United States Prime Rate Will Hold At 5.00% After The August 1, 2018 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, odds are at 98.0% the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate  at 1.75% - 2.00% at the August 1ST, 2018, monetary policy meeting (very likely.)

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The current Prime Rate, which went into effect on June 14TH, 2018, is 5.00%.

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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Stay tuned for the latest odds and economic data, and especially for news on inflation, jobs, economic growth and wages...


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Current Odds

  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will hold at 5.00% after the August 1ST, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 98%  (very likely), with 2% odds (very unlikely) the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 5.25%.

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  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will rise to 5.25% after the September 26TH, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 85% (somewhat likely) with 13.3% odds (not likely) the U.S. Prime Rate will hold at 5.00%, and 1.7% odds (very unlikely) the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 5.50%.

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Wednesday, June 13, 2018

United States Prime Rate Rises to 5.00%

United States Prime Rate Is Now 5.00%
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve has just adjourned its fourth monetary policy meeting of 2018, and, in accordance with our forecast, has voted to raise the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate from 1.50% - 1.75% to 1.75% - 2.00%.  Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) is now 5.00%, effective tomorrow (June 14, 2018.)

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Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined. Recent data suggest that growth of household spending has picked up, while business fixed investment has continued to grow strongly. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have moved close to 2 percent. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-3/4 to 2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Loretta J. Mester; Randal K. Quarles; and John C. Williams..."
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