United States Prime Rate

also known as the Fed, National or United States Prime Rate,
from the interest-rate specialists at www.FedPrimeRate.comSM

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Odds At 95.9% (Very Likely) The United States Prime Rate Will Hold At 4.75% After The May 2, 2018 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, odds are at 95.9% the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate  at 1.50% - 1.75% at the May 2ND, 2018 monetary policy meeting (very likely.)

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The current Prime Rate, which went into effect on March 21ST, 2018, is 4.75%.

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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Jerome H. Powell's term as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is four years.

Here is Mr. Powell's first press conference as Fed Boss:

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Stay tuned for the latest economic data, and the latest odds...


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Current Odds

  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will remain at 4.75% after the May 2ND, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 95.9%  (very likely), with 4.1% odds (very unlikely) the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 5.00%.

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  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will rise to 5.00% after the June 13TH, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 79.8%  (somewhat likely), with 16.8% odds (not likely) the U.S. Prime Rate will hold at the current 4.75%, and 3.4% odds (very unlikely) the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 5.25%.

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United States Prime Rate Rises to 4.75%

U.S. Prime Rate Is Now 4.75%
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve has just adjourned its second monetary policy meeting of 2018, and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to raise the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate from 1.25% - 1.50% to 1.50% - 1.75%.  Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) is now 4.75%, effective tomorrow (March 22, 2018.)

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Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been strong in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Recent data suggest that growth rates of household spending and business fixed investment have moderated from their strong fourth-quarter readings. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have continued to run below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have increased in recent months but remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The economic outlook has strengthened in recent months. The Committee expects that, with further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace in the medium term and labor market conditions will remain strong. Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to move up in coming months and to stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Loretta J. Mester; Randal K. Quarles; and John C. Williams..."
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Saturday, March 17, 2018

Odds Now At 94.4% (Very Likely) The Fed Will Raise The United States Prime Rate To 4.75% At The March 21, 2018 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, odds are at 94.4% that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate  from the current 1.25% - 1.50%, to 1.50% - 1.75% at the  March 21ST, 2018 monetary policy meeting (very likely.)

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The current Prime Rate, which went into effect on December 14TH, 2017 is 4.50%.

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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Economic data influencing the latest odds include readings on Inflation, Jobs, Productivity, GDPRetail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing, Manufacturing, The Services Sector, Consumer Sentiment, Consumer Confidence, Markets, Business Optimism, and  Economic Activity.


  • On Friday, the Labor Department reported that job openings hit an all-time record high during January 2018 -- 6,312,000 -- an increase of 645,000, or 11.38%, above the December 2017 figure (5,667,000.)

    Hires, on the other hand, rose from 5,524,000 in December, to 5,583,000 in January, a far more modest increase of 59,000, or 1.068%.

Stay tuned for the latest odds...



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Current Odds

  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will rise to 4.75% after the March 21ST, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 94.4%  (very likely), with 5.6% odds (very unlikely) the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at 4.50%.

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