United States Prime Rate

also known as the Fed, National or United States Prime Rate,
from the interest-rate specialists at www.FedPrimeRate.comSM

Thursday, December 12, 2019

Odds At 100% (Certain) The United States Prime Rate Will Continue At 4.75% After The January 29, 2020 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Prediction
Prime Rate Prediction
Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to maintain the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate at the current 1.50% - 1.75% at the January 29TH, 2020 monetary policy meeting (certain), and keep the United States Prime Rate at 4.75%.

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The current U.S. Prime Rate was lowered from 5.00% to 4.75% on October 30TH, 2019.

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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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2020 Rate Forecast: Out of 17 Federal Reserve officials, 4 believe that short-term rates, including the U.S. Prime Rate, will
be raised at some point next year, while 13 are predicting that short-term rates will remain where they are right now.

And here's a clip from yesterday's opening remarks by Chair Jerome Powell:

FOMC 2020 Dot Plot
FOMC 2020 Dot Plot
"...We believe that the current stance of monetary policy will support sustained growth, a strong labor market, and inflation near our symmetric 2 percent objective. As long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with this outlook, the current stance of monetary policy likely will remain appropriate. Looking ahead, we will be monitoring the effects of our recent policy actions, along with other information bearing on the outlook, as we assess the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate. Of course, if developments emerge that cause a material reassessment of our outlook, we would respond accordingly. Policy is not on a preset course..." 
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Stay tuned for the latest odds, and for current U.S. economic data (inflation, jobs, economic growth, wages, etc.) 


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Current Odds

  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will hold at 4.75% after the January 29TH, 2020 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain.)

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Wednesday, December 11, 2019

Eighth and Final FOMC Meeting of 2019 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Continues At 4.75%

United States Prime Rate Continues at 4.75%
U.S. Prime Rate
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its eighth and final monetary policy meeting of 2019 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to maintain the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 1.50% - 1.75%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) remains at 4.75%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although household spending has been rising at a strong pace, business fixed investment and exports remain weak. On a 12‑month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1‑1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. The Committee judges that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate to support sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective. The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including global developments and muted inflation pressures, as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Richard H. Clarida; Charles L. Evans; Esther L. George; Randal K. Quarles; and Eric S. Rosengren..."

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