United States Prime Rate

also known as the Fed, National or United States Prime Rate,
from the interest-rate specialists at www.FedPrimeRate.comSM

Monday, November 08, 2021

Odds At 100% (Certain) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Remain At The Current 3.25% After The December 15, 2021 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate at the current 0.00% - 0.25% at the December 15TH, 2021 monetary policy meeting, and keep the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) at 3.25%.

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COVID-19 Update

The latest jobs numbers look very promising.

But this COVID thing is not over yet.

As of right now (November 8, 2021), there are 47,336,577 confirmed COVID-19 cases in the United States, with 775,218 total deaths. 37,332,949 have recovered.

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Compared to the numbers we posted in this blog on September 27,2021:

  • Confirmed COVID-19 cases have increased by 3,579,851 (8.18%.)
  • Total deaths have increased by 68,825 (9.74%.)
  • Total recovered has increased by 4,146,680 (12.5%.)
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And cases are spiking and setting new records in many other industrialized nations to boot.

Bottom line: Even with readings on inflation causing many to do a double take, the coronavirus pandemic continues to rage, so the Fed is extremely likely to keep short-term rates at rock bottom well into 2022.

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Coronavirus Pandemic: Please Keep Your Distance!

Coronavirus Pandemic: Please Keep Your Distance!
 
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The current U.S. Prime Rate was lowered from 4.25% to the current 3.25% on March 15TH, 2020.

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Coronavirus COVID-19 Reminder:

Symptoms of COVID-19, which may appear 2-14 days after exposure, include:
  • Fever
  • Cough
  • Shortness of breath
Emergency warning signs for COVID-19 include:
  • Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath
  • Persistent pain or pressure in the chest
  • New confusion or inability to arouse
  • Bluish lips or face
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Stay tuned for the latest odds, and for current U.S. economic data (inflation, jobs, economic growth, wages, etc.) 


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Current Odds

  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will continue at the current 3.25% after the December 15TH, 2021 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain.)

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Wednesday, November 03, 2021

Seventh FOMC Meeting of 2021 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Holds At 3.25%

U.S. Prime Rate Holds at 3.25%
United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its seventh monetary policy meeting of 2021 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to maintain the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 0% - 0.25%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) remains at 3.25%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have improved in recent months, but the summer's rise in COVID-19 cases has slowed their recovery. Inflation is elevated, largely reflecting factors that are expected to be transitory. Supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy have contributed to sizable price increases in some sectors. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

The path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations and an easing of supply constraints are expected to support continued gains in economic activity and employment as well as a reduction in inflation. Risks to the economic outlook remain.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation having run persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. In light of the substantial further progress the economy has made toward the Committee's goals since last December, the Committee decided to begin reducing the monthly pace of its net asset purchases by $10 billion for Treasury securities and $5 billion for agency mortgage‑backed securities. Beginning later this month, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $70 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $35 billion per month. Beginning in December, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $60 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $30 billion per month. The Committee judges that similar reductions in the pace of net asset purchases will likely be appropriate each month, but it is prepared to adjust the pace of purchases if warranted by changes in the economic outlook. The Federal Reserve's ongoing purchases and holdings of securities will continue to foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Charles L. Evans; Randal K. Quarles; and Christopher J. Waller..."
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