FOMC Meeting Schedule (Tentative) for 2018

Earlier today, The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released its tentative monetary policy meeting schedule for 2018. The FOMC doesn't always stick to the exact dates on the schedule (hence tentative), but they do always meet at least eight times per calendar year.

Why is this schedule important to you? Because it's at these monetary policy meetings that The FOMC votes on whether to raise, lower or make no changes to The Fed Funds Target Rate, and when the Fed Funds Target Rate changes, the United States Prime Rate (also known as the Fed Prime Rate) will also change (how the US Prime Rate works).

Here's the tentative schedule for 2018:

• January 31, 2018

• March 21, 2018
  (+ Press Conference + Economic Projections)

• May 2, 2018

• June 13, 2018
  (+ Press Conference + Economic Projections)

• August 1, 2018

• September 26, 2018
  (+ Press Conference + Economic Projections)

• November 8, 2018

• December 19, 2018
  (+ Press Conference + Economic Projections)

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Odds At 73.8% (Somewhat Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Rise To 4.25% After The June 14 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Forecast

Latest Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, the investors who trade in fed fund futures have odds at 73.8% (as implied by current pricing on contracts) that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate to 1.00% - 1.25%, at the June 14 monetary policy meeting (somewhat likely.)

The current Prime Rate, which went into effect on March 16, 2017, is 4.00%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU): a level of unemployment below which inflation rises.

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This post-Great-Recession American economy continues to languish, despite strong reports on jobs.  Sluggish wage growth, tepid inflation, depressed productivity and continued weakness in GDP.

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Current Odds

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 4.25% after the June 14^TH, 2017 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 73.8%  (somewhat likely), with remaining odds --  26.2% (not likely) -- that the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at 4.00%.
  
• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at 4.00% after the July 26^TH, 2017 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 23.9%  (not likely), with remaining odds --  76.1% (somewhat likely) -- that the U.S. Prime Rate will be at least 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point) higher.
  
• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at 4.00% after the September 20^TH, 2017 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 17.4%  (not likely), with remaining odds --  82.6% (likely) -- that the U.S. Prime Rate will be at least 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point) higher.
  
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• NB: United States Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

The odds associated with fed fund futures contracts -- widely accepted as the best predictor of what the FOMC will do with the benchmark Fed Funds Target Rate -- are constantly changing, so stay tuned for the latest odds.

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Third FOMC Meeting of 2017 Adjourned: U.S. Prime Rate Holds At 4.00%

U.S. Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve has just adjourned its third monetary policy meeting of 2017 and, in accordance with our most recent forecast, has voted to leave the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 0.75% - 1.00%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) will continue at the current 4.00%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen even as growth in economic activity slowed. Job gains were solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate declined. Household spending rose only modestly, but the fundamentals underpinning the continued growth of consumption remained solid. Business fixed investment firmed. Inflation measured on a 12-month basis recently has been running close to the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective. Excluding energy and food, consumer prices declined in March and inflation continued to run somewhat below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee views the slowing in growth during the first quarter as likely to be transitory and continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further, and inflation will stabilize around 2 percent over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3/4 to 1 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; and Jerome H. Powell..."

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Odds At 95.2% (Very Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Continue At 4.00% After Tomorrow's FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Forecast

Latest Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, the investors who trade in fed fund futures have odds at 95.2% (as implied by current pricing on contracts) that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate at 0.75% - 1.00% at tomorrow's monetary policy meeting (very likely.)

The current Prime Rate, which went into effect on March 16, 2017, is 4.00%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Recent economic data influencing the latest odds include:

• Inflation: During March 2017, and year-on-year, the PCE Price Index slipped from 2.1% to 1.8%, while the Core PCE Price Index slowed from 1.8% to 1.6%.  Consumer spending moved sideways for two consecutive months.
  
  
  
  • For March 2017, and year-over-year, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) moved from 2.7% to 2.4%, while the Core CPI dipped from 2.2% to 2.0%.
    
    
• The first estimate of Real GDP for the first quarter of 2017 was reported at an anemic 0.7%.
  
  
• The ISM® Manufacturing Index (ISM) declined, month-on-month, from 57.2% to 54.8% for April 2017.
  
  
• For the past 2 weeks, the week-ending price on a barrel of crude oil for future delivery has hovered below the $50-per-barrel mark @ NYMEX WTI.  The last time the week-ending close was above $55 per barrel was July 3, 2015.
  
  
• For March 2017, the year-on-year change for retail sales retreated from 5.7% to 5.2%.

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Current Odds

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at 4.00% after tomorrow's FOMC monetary policy meeting: 95.2%  (very likely), with remaining odds --  4.8% (very unlikely) -- that the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 4.25%.
  
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• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at 4.00% after the June 14^TH, 2017 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 29.3%  (not likely), with remaining odds --  70.7% (somewhat likely) -- that the U.S. Prime Rate will be at least 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point) higher.
  
  
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• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at 4.00% after the July 26^TH, 2017 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 26.4%  (not likely), with remaining odds --  73.6% (somewhat likely) -- that the U.S. Prime Rate will be at least 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point) higher.
  
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• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at 4.00% after the September 20^TH, 2017 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 17.7%  (not likely), with remaining odds --  82.3% (likely) -- that the U.S. Prime Rate will be at least 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point) higher.
  
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• NB: United States Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

The odds associated with fed fund futures contracts -- widely accepted as the best predictor of what the FOMC will do with the benchmark Fed Funds Target Rate -- are constantly changing, so stay tuned for the latest odds.

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