Odds Remain At 98.0% (Very Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Continue At 4.25% After The November 1, 2017 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting
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| Prime Rate Forecast |
As of right now, odds are at 98.0% that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate at 1.00% - 1.25% at the November 1ST, 2017 monetary policy meeting (very likely.)
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The current Prime Rate, which went into effect on June 15, 2017, is 4.25%.
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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)
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- The Commerce Department's first estimate of third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in at 3.0%. Economist were expecting a figure closer to 2.5%.
- The October final result for the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) was reported at 100.7, a 5.8885% monthly increase, and a 15.4817% year-on-year bump. For the ICS, this is a high not seen since early 2004.
These latest economic data have boosted the odds for an end-of-year (December 13,2017) rate increase.
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Current Odds
- Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at 4.25% after the November 1ST, 2017 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 98.0% (very likely), with 2.0% odds on a rate increase (very unlikely.)
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- Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at 4.25% after the December 13TH, 2017 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 3.8% (very unlikely), with 96.2% odds (very likely) that the U.S. Prime Rate will be at least 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point) higher.
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- NB: United States Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)
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Labels: banks, fed_funds_target_rate, fomc, odds, prime_rate, prime_rate_forecast, prime_rate_prediction, The_Fed
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posted by Steve Brown | 10/31/2017 06:30:00 AM
