Odds At 100% (Certain) The United States Prime Rate Will Hold At 5.25% After The November 8, 2018 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Forecast

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate  at 2.00% - 2.25% at the November 8^TH, 2018 monetary policy meeting (certain.)

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The current U.S. Prime Rate, which went into effect on September 27^TH, 2018, is 5.25%.

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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Stay tuned for the latest odds and economic data, and especially for news on inflation, jobs, economic growth and wages...

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Current Odds

• Current odds the United States Prime Rate will hold at 5.25% after the November 8^TH, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain.)
  
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• Current odds the United States Prime Rate will rise to 5.50% after the December 19^TH, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain.)
  
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• NB: United States Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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United States Prime Rate Rises to 5.25%

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve has just adjourned its sixth monetary policy meeting of 2018, and, in accordance with our forecast, has voted to raise the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate from 1.75% - 2.00% to 2.00% - 2.25%.  Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) is now 5.25%, effective tomorrow (September 27, 2018.)

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Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Household spending and business fixed investment have grown strongly. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remain near 2 percent. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; John C. Williams, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles..."

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ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS

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Odds At 100% (Certain) The United States Prime Rate Will Rise To 5.25% After The September 26, 2018 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Forecast

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate, from the current 1.75% - 2.00%, to 2.00% - 2.25%, at the September 26^TH, 2018 monetary policy meeting.

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The current Prime Rate, which went into effect on June 14^TH, 2018, is 5.00%.

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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Stay tuned for the latest odds and economic data, and especially for news on inflation, jobs, economic growth and wages...

======= 

Current Odds

• Current odds the United States Prime Rate will rise to 5.25% after the September 26^TH, 2018 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain.)
  
  ==========

• NB: United States Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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