Odds Now At 90% (Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Hold At 8.25% After The June 14, 2023 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 90% (likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to keep the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at  5.00% - 5.25% at the June 14^TH, 2023 monetary policy meeting, with the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) holding at 8.25%.

 

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INFLATION!

 

Both the CPI and the Core PCE remain above the Fed's comfort zone, but since rate increases take time to ripple through the economy, chances are pretty good that the Fed will choose to pause (do nothing) at the June 14^TH FOMC meeting.

Meanwhile, the jobs picture (Employment Situation, JOLTS, Jobless Claims, etc.) isn't helping.

Stay tuned...

 

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The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.25% on May 3, 2023.

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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Current Odds

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at 8.25% after the June 14^TH, 2023 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 90% (likely.)
  

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Third FOMC Meeting of 2023 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Rises to 8.25%

United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its third monetary policy meeting of 2023 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to raise the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate to 5.00% - 5.25%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) is now 8.25%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Economic activity expanded at a modest pace in the first quarter. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 5 to 5-1/4 percent. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate to return inflation to 2% over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2% objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller..."

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