United States Prime Rate

also known as the Fed, National or United States Prime Rate,
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Thursday, November 02, 2017

Donald Trump Nominates Jerome Powell To Be Next Fed Chair

Donald Trump Nominates Jerome Powell To Be Next Fed Chair
Jerome Powell
Here's a clip from today's press release:

"...Thank you, Mr. President, for the faith you have shown in me through this nomination. I am both honored and humbled by this opportunity to serve our great country. If I am confirmed by the Senate, I will do everything within my power to achieve the goals assigned to the Federal Reserve by the Congress: stable prices and maximum employment.

I want to thank my wife, Elissa, for her love, support, and wise counsel. Without her, I would not be standing here. We are thinking today of our three children, and of the world they are inheriting. My five siblings and I are also thinking today of our parents, who gave us so many gifts, most of all a loving home.

In the years since the global financial crisis ended, our economy has made substantial progress toward full recovery. By many measures we are close to full employment, and inflation has gradually moved up toward our target.

Our financial system is without doubt far stronger and more resilient than it was before the crisis. Our banks have much higher capital and liquidity, are more aware of the risks they run, and are better able to manage those risks. While post-crisis improvements in regulation and supervision have helped us to achieve these gains, I will continue to work with my colleagues to ensure that the Federal Reserve remains vigilant and prepared to respond to changes in markets and evolving risks.

Finally, I have had the great privilege of serving under Chairman Bernanke and Chair Yellen, who guided the economy with insight and courage through difficult times while moving monetary policy toward greater transparency and predictability. Each of them embodies the highest ideals of public service--unquestioned integrity and unflinching commitment to fulfilling our mandate. Inside the Federal Reserve, we understand that monetary policy decisions matter for American families and communities. I strongly share that sense of mission and am committed to making decisions with objectivity and based on the best available evidence, in the longstanding tradition of monetary policy independence.

Mr. President, thank you again for this extraordinary opportunity to serve the American people..."

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Wednesday, November 09, 2016

Odds At 81.1% (Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Rise To 3.75% At The December 14, 2016 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Forecast
Latest Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, the investors who trade in fed fund futures have odds at 81.1% (as implied by current pricing on contracts) that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate by 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point), to 0.5% - 0.75%, at the December 14TH, 2016 monetary policy meeting (likely.)

The current United States Prime Rate, which went into effect on December 17, 2015, is 3.5%.  A 25 basis point rate hike on December 14TH would cause the U.S. Prime Rate to rise to 3.75%

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)


Many were betting that markets would react negatively to a Donald Trump victory over Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House.

But today, equities closed with gains, and key treasuries notes were sold, indicating confidence in the future of the U.S. economy.

The Standard and Poor's 500 Index added 23.70 points (+1.108%) to close at 2,163.26, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gained 256.95 points (+1.402%) to close at 18,589.69.  The NASDAQ Composite Index rose by 57.58 points (+1.109%) to close at 5,251.07.

The yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note ended at 2.07% today, a yield not seen since January 22.

With no significant bearish drama in markets today, traders are still betting the Fed is on track to raise short-term rates next month.

Stay tuned...


Current Odds

  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to 3.75% at the December 14TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 81.1% (likely), with remaining odds -- 18.9% (unlikely) -- that short-term rates, including the U.S. Prime Rate, will remain at current levels.


The odds associated with fed fund futures contracts -- widely accepted as the best predictor of what the FOMC will do with the benchmark Fed Funds Target Rate -- are constantly changing, so stay tuned for the latest odds.

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