Futures Market 99% Certain U.S. Prime Rate Will Hold At 3.25% After The August 11 Monetary Policy Meeting

On Friday, the Federal minimum wage will rise from $6.55 per hour to $7.25. The timing of this increase couldn't be worse, in my opinion, as small businesses across the country are already hurting in this deep recession. $0.70 might not seem like much, but for the small business owner who's barely making it -- the one who's already seriously worried about the future; the one who's having a real hard time finding financing; the one who's already been contemplating cutting his or her workforce -- it could mean the difference between keeping 400 employees working full time, or cutting back to 300. Moreover, the labor cost increase will likely prompt many employers to cut back on employee hours. This is no time to throw obstacles in the way of an economic recovery.

Will the increase help the economic recovery? I really don't think so. If you were making minimum wage right now, and all of a sudden you got an extra $39.20 in your pocket each week, would you spend it, knowing that, in this economy, your job could disappear in a flash? Is an extra $156.80 per month going to help that family who got an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) during the boom -- you know, that mortgage that's about to reset and cause the monthly payment to jump from $1,200 per month to $1,900? Not likely. As a minimum-wage earner who's about to enjoy a slight pay increase, you might take your kids out to McDonald's a little more often, or you might do a little more shopping at the local Wal-Mart. But these two massive corporations are already weathering this recession well, and are likely to continue doing so. They don't need help making money. Small businesses do. America needs to focus on creating new jobs, and keeping small businesses healthy so that business owners keep their employees working.

As of the week that ended on July 4, 2009, there were 6,273,000 continuing claims for unemployment benefits, according to the Department of Labor. A staggering figure.

And then there's the inflation problem. When GDP eventually goes positive, all the money sloshing around in the economy is going to cause the pace of inflation to spike bigtime. A minimum wage increase will only exacerbate the inevitable problems we are going to face with price stability. Inflation will contribute to the dollar getting weaker, and foreign governments may lose faith in our currency.

Congress should postpone this year's minimum wage increase until next summer. The economy should be much improved by then. Moreover, twelve months from now, the billions of dollars of stimulus money that many important players have been waiting for will have had a chance to seep through federal, state and local bureaucracies. Once all that money gets into the hands of business owners, they'll create jobs, lots of jobs, and that should in turn stoke consumer spending.

According to Small Business Administration (SBA) estimates, small businesses account for 60% - 80% of new jobs.

I'm not advocating keeping the minimum wage where it is for the next 5 years. No way. However, I believe strongly that we should raise the minimum wage when we can afford to do so, i.e. when the threat of deflation is long gone and the economy is creating jobs again. The way I see it, increasing the minimum wage now makes it somewhat more likely that we will have to contend with that super ugly mix of stagnant economic growth with high inflation -- also known as stagflation -- which is bad for everybody.

So, just how bad is the current job market? The official national unemployment rate was 9.5% last month, and is widely expected to rise this month. I much prefer to look at the Labor Department's Alternative Measures Of Labor Underutilization table. Scroll down to row 5 and you'll see that the national unemployment rate was actually 10.8% in June, when discouraged and marginally attached workers were factored into the equation. I don't understand why Labor doesn't include these folks in the official rate that everyone, including the mass media, pays attention to, despite the fact that these people are clearly members of the unemployed in America. Here is how Labor defines discouraged and marginally attached workers:

"...Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job..."

I also like to look at the state-by-state numbers. The following are the state-by-state figures for June, sorted by the jobless rate in descending order:

• Michigan: 15.2%
• Rhode Island: 12.4%
• Oregon: 12.2%
• South Carolina: 12.1%
• Nevada: 12%
• California: 11.6%
• Ohio: 11.1%
• North Carolina: 11%
• District Of Columbia: 10.9%
• Kentucky: 10.9%
• Tennessee: 10.8%
• Indiana: 10.7%
• Florida: 10.6%
• Illinois: 10.3%
• Alabama: 10.1%
• Georgia: 10.1%
• Missouri: 9.3%
• Washington: 9.3%
• New Jersey: 9.2%
• West Virginia: 9.2%
• Mississippi: 9%
• Wisconsin: 9%
• Arizona: 8.7%
• New York: 8.7%
• Massachusetts: 8.6%
• Maine: 8.5%
• Alaska: 8.4%
• Delaware: 8.4%
• Idaho: 8.4%
• Minnesota: 8.4%
• Pennsylvania: 8.3%
• Connecticut: 8%
• Colorado: 7.6%
• Texas: 7.5%
• Hawaii: 7.4%
• Maryland: 7.3%
• Arkansas: 7.2%
• Virginia: 7.2%
• Vermont: 7.1%
• Kansas: 7%
• Louisiana: 6.8%
• New Hampshire: 6.8%
• New Mexico: 6.8%
• Montana: 6.4%
• Oklahoma: 6.3%
• Iowa: 6.2%
• Wyoming: 5.9%
• Utah: 5.7%
• South Dakota: 5.1%
• Nebraska: 5%
• North Dakota: 4.2%

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As of right now, the investors who trade in fed funds futures at the Chicago Board of Trade have odds at 99% (as implied by current pricing on contracts) that the FOMC will vote to leave the benchmark target range for the Federal Funds Rate at its current level at the August 11^TH, 2009 monetary policy meeting.


Summary of the Latest Prime Rate Forecast:

• Current odds that the Prime Rate will remain at the current 3.25% after the August 11^TH, 2009 FOMC monetary policy meeting is adjourned: 99% (very likely)
• NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Federal Funds Target Rate + 3)

The odds related to federal-funds futures contracts -- widely accepted as the best predictor of where the FOMC will take the benchmark Fed Funds Target Rate -- are constantly changing, so stay tuned for the latest odds.

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Futures Market 98% Certain U.S. Prime Rate Will Hold At 3.25% After The August 11 Monetary Policy Meeting

It's been a volatile week in equities markets, so we're going to mix this Prime Rate forecast with a bear market update.

Since closing with record highs on October 9, 2007, the DJIA has now lost 6,018.01 points (42.486%), while the S&P 500 Index has shed 686.02 points (43.831%). The record high for the DJIA is 14,164.53; for the S&P 500 Index it's 1,565.15.

Year-to-date, the DJIA is down 629.87 points (7.177%), while the S&P 500 is down 24.12 points (2.67%).

OK, so now for some positive bear-market news: since the bear-market low of March 6, 2009, the DJIA is up by 1,519.58 points (22.93%), while the S&P 500 is up by 195.75 points (28.644%).

• There's also good news from an energy perspective: crude oil for future delivery closed at $59.89 per barrel in New York today. On July 11, 2008, crude closed at $145.08 per barrel. That's a year-over-year decline of $85.19 (58.719%). No one wants high energy prices to slow down an already drawn-out economic recovery, so most of the economic world is hoping that crude oil prices remain tame. However, lower oil prices also mean that global demand for energy is relatively weak, which could mean that a return to prosperity may be further down the road than many economists are currently predicting.
  
• There was also some halfway decent news from the Labor Department yesterday. Though the unemployment rate for June 2009 was reported at 9.5% in a previously released Labor Department report -- and will likely rise this month -- new claims for unemployment benefits dipped below the 600K mark for the first time in countless weeks. For the week that ended on July 4, 2009, 565,000 Americans applied for jobless benefits. This news, however, was tempered by fact that continuing claims for jobless benefits surged by 159,000 to 6,883,000.

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As of right now, the investors who trade in fed funds futures at the Chicago Board of Trade have odds at 98% (as implied by current pricing on contracts) that the FOMC will vote to leave the benchmark target range for the Federal Funds Rate at its current level at the August 11^TH, 2009 monetary policy meeting.


Summary of the Latest Prime Rate Forecast:

• Current odds that the Prime Rate will remain at the current 3.25% after the August 11^TH, 2009 FOMC monetary policy meeting is adjourned: 98% (very likely)
• NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Federal Funds Target Rate + 3)

The odds related to federal-funds futures contracts -- widely accepted as the best predictor of where the FOMC will take the benchmark Fed Funds Target Rate -- are constantly changing, so stay tuned for the latest odds.

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Tips for Surviving A Recession

Americans are worried about their finances, and they're angry with their government. The federal government is borrowing tens of billions of dollars to keep zombie banks and corporations alive, while at the same time offering limited help for individual Americans who have always been responsible with their finances. Regardless of what the government is doing, middle-class families, small business owners and everyone else who's feeling the pinch of this recession should do what they can to survive. Here are some recession survival tips:

• Become An Indispensable Employee - Layoffs are happening everywhere; no sector of the economy is safe. A sound workplace strategy: become the employee that your company can't do without. You don't have to suck up to your boss, but there are things you can do to make yourself stand out in the crowd. Be the employee who shows up to work early and leaves late. Make a point of showing off to your boss just how productive you are. Every once in a while, make intelligent recommendations on how the company you work for can save money. When you see a conflict flare up, be the level-headed mediator who resolves the problem.
  
  
• Get Rid of Your Debt - Don't get into the mindset that having credit card debt is OK. It's not OK. Even if you have only a few hundred dollars of credit card debt, and you're paying interest on that debt, then your finances need fixing. Cut back on extraneous expenses and pay your credit card debt down to zero as soon as you can.
  
  If you have old credit card accounts that you don't use, keep these cards open. This will help to keep your FICO® credit score healthy. If you recently used an old credit card to make a small purchase so that your bank doesn't close the account, that's fine. But pay that balance down to zero right away. You will reap no benefit from paying down a credit card balance over time, large or small.
  
  
• Stay Fit! - We all know that there are unnumbered benefits associated with physical and mental fitness. One of the most overlooked is the amount of money it can save. You can't prevent the medical bills associated with e.g. a car accident but, by staying in shape, eating right and not smoking, you can prevent maladies like cancer, type II diabetes, heart disease and hypertension. Medical bills can pile up extremely fast, and, if you're unfortunate enough to end up dealing with a protracted illness, you could end up losing your job as well.
  
  Keep your brain healthy by eating foods that contain omega-3 fatty acids as often as possible. Sardines, salmon and fish oil pills are all good picks. If you want to have a great mind into your old age, exercise and cultivate your brain by learning new skills like a new language or new dance steps. When you're bored waiting in line somewhere, count backwards in your head. Start with the number 300, then subtract seven or nine (not an easy decrement like two or five), and keep going. A healthy, productive brain is the best tool you can have to build wealth in any economic climate.
  
  
• Boost Your Rainy-Day Fund - Your goal should be to have enough cash in the bank to survive for a year if you lost your main source of income.
  
  
• Invest In Gold and Peer-to-Peer (P2P) Lending - Right now, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the S&P 500 Index are off more than 45% from their October 9, 2007 peak. Bottom line: stocks aren't looking good right now. Moreover, since stocks have become unattractive to both institutional and individual investors, lots of Wall Street money has been moving to the safety of government securities, driving yields way down. Investing in gold makes perfect sense right now. The Fed and the Treasury department have been pumping vast quantities of cheap cash into the economy, which will cause inflation to flare up like an ulcer down the road. Investors will move their money to gold even faster than they are now, driving its price upward.
  
  P2P lending is also a great investment option right now, if you can tolerate some risk. For example, at Lending Club, the average return is 9.05%. Where else can you help yourself with a high rate of return, while helping worthy borrowers who can't find loans elsewhere?
  
  
• Sell Stuff on eBay and Craigslist - You know you have lots of stuff around the house that you could sell on eBay.com, so just sell it. Better yet, list your stuff on Craigslist.com for free. Whenever you pick up an item in your home and say to yourself, "Nah, that couldn't sell on eBay or Craigslist," snap a few photos of the item and list it. Just about anything can be sold online; this is especially true today as this recession has turned many consumers into serious bargain hunters.
  
  
• Refinance Your Mortgage - Right now, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department are working together to keep mortgage rates as low as possible. The average refinance rate is expected to fall and remain below 5% for some time, which makes it a great time to get out of a high-rate mortgage. To get the best rate, make an effort to get your FICO credit score above 760 (720 is no longer considered top-tier.)

If you don't like what the government is doing with your tax dollars and money it's borrowing from other countries then contact your representatives in the House and Senate. But don't waste too much time and energy complaining. Every morning, remind yourself to focus your efforts on increasing your income and net worth. This recession has the potential of lasting two years or more, so even wealthy families are cutting back and preparing themselves for the worst. The key to surviving this economic downturn is to build and preserve wealth, but never overlook the importance of preserving your mental and physical health.

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