United States Prime Rate

also known as the Fed, National or United States Prime Rate,
from the interest-rate specialists at www.FedPrimeRate.comSM

Sunday, December 01, 2024

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting Schedule for 2025 & 2026

FOMC Meeting Schedule for 2025 and 2026

πŸ‘‡: Here's the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting schedule for 2025 and 2026.

Why is this schedule important to you? Because it's at these monetary policy meetings that the FOMC votes on whether to raise, lower or make no changes to the target range for Fed Funds Target Rate, and when the Fed Funds Target Rate changes, the United States Prime Rate (also known as the Fed Prime Rate) will also change (how the United States Prime Rate works):

======πŸ‘‡2025πŸ‘‡======

  • January 29, 2025

  • March 19, 2025

  • May 7, 2025

  • June 18, 2025

  • July 30, 2025

  • September 17, 2025

  • October 29, 2025

  • December 10, 2025

======πŸ‘‡2026πŸ‘‡======

  • January 28, 2026

  • March 18, 2026

  • April 29, 2026

  • June 17, 2026

  • July 29, 2026

  • September 16, 2026

  • October 28, 2026

  • December 9, 2026

================

  • January 27, 2027

================

Labels: , , , , , ,

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <--

>  SITEMAP  <

Saturday, November 09, 2024

Odds Now At 60% (On The Fence) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Be Cut to 7.50% at the December 18, 2024 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 60% (on the fence) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to lower the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) by 0.25 percentage point (25 basis points [bps]) at the December 18TH, 2024 monetary policy meeting.


A 25 bps cut would cause Prime to decrease, from the
current 7.75%, to  7.50%. 

 =======

  • Year-on-year (Y-O-Y), the CORE PCE Price Index moved sideways from August to September -- 2.7% to 2.7%.

  • Y-O-Y, from August to September, the PCE Price Index eased, from 2.3% to 2.1%.

Stay tuned...
=======

The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 7.75% on November 7, 2024.

=======

SUMMARY

  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will be cut to 7.50% at the December 18TH, 2024 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 60% (On The Fence.)
=========

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <--

>  SITEMAP  <

Thursday, November 07, 2024

Seventh FOMC Meeting of 2024 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Is Now 7.75%

United States Prime Rate is now 7.75%
United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its seventh monetary policy meeting of 2024 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to cut the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point) from 4.75% - 5.00% to 4.50% - 4.75%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) is now 7.75%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and
inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the 
federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the
stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on  labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Beth M. Hammack; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; and Christopher J. Waller.
.."

==========


==========

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <--

>  SITEMAP  <

Sunday, September 29, 2024

Odds Now At 99% (VERY LIKELY) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Be Cut By At Least 25 Basis Points (0.25 Percentage Point) at the November 7, 2024 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 99% (very likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to lower the cardinal target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) by at least 0.25 percentage point (25 basis points [bps]) at the November 7TH, 2024 monetary policy meeting.

A 25 bps cut would cause Prime to decrease, from the
current 8.00%, to  7.75%. 

A 50 bps cut would lower the
TRFFR to a range of 4.25% - 4.50%, and would result in a Prime Rate of 7.50%, a level not seen since December of 2022.

 =======
  • Y-O-Y, the Core CPI for August, 2024 came in at +3.197%.
  • Stay tuned...
    =======

    The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 8.00% on September 18, 2024.

    =======

    SUMMARY

    • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will be cut to 7.75% or lower at the November 7TH, 2024 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 99% (very likely.)
    =========

    Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

    --> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <--

    >  SITEMAP  <

    Wednesday, September 18, 2024

    Sixth FOMC Meeting of 2024 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Is Now 8.00%

    United States Prime Rate is now 8.00%
    United States Prime Rate

    The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its sixth monetary policy meeting of 2024 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to cut the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points (0.50 percentage point) from 5.25% - 5.50% to 4.75% - 5.00%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) is now 8.00%.

    NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

    Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

    "...Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated.

    The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent, and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

    In light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point to 4-3/4 to 5 percent. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

    In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Beth M. Hammack; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action was Michelle W. Bowman, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting..."

    ==========

      


    ==========

    Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,

    --> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <--

    >  SITEMAP  <

    Sunday, August 04, 2024

    Odds Now At 95% (VERY LIKELY) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Be Cut By At Least 25 Basis Points (0.25 Percentage Point) at the September 18, 2024 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

    United States Prime Rate Forecast
    Prime Rate Prediction

    Prime Rate Forecast

    As of right now, our odds are at 95% (very likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to LOWER the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) by at least 25 basis points (bps) at the September 18TH, 2024 monetary policy meeting.

    If a 25 bps cut happens, the
    United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) would decline from the current 8.50%, to  8.25%. 

    There is also a very real chance that the
    FOMC will cut by 50 bps next month, setting the TRFFR at 4.75% - 5.00%.  This would result in a U.S. Prime Rate of 8.00%, a level not seen since March of 2023.

     =======
    Eurodollar LIBOR Has An Excellent Record of Predicting
    Recessions for The American Economy

      
    Over the years, U.S. dollar (Eurodollar) LIBOR rates have been good at predicting what's in the economic offing for the American economy.

    Right now, there is an inversion in USD LIBOR rates.  Current rates (August 2, 2024) are as follows:

    • 1-Month LIBOR: 5.46652%
    • 3-Month LIBOR: 5.48934%
    • 6-Month LIBOR: 5.43589%
    The 6-month rate is lower than the 3-month rate, which = economic concerns ahead!  

    Is LIBOR a better prognosticator than the Treasury yield curve or the LEI?  Our thesis = πŸ‘ Yes! πŸ™Œ

    Stay tuned...
    =======

    The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.50% on July 26, 2023.

    =======


    ======= 

    Current Odds

    • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will be cut to 8.25% or lower at the September 18TH, 2024 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 95% (very likely.)
    =========

    Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

    --> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <--

    >  SITEMAP  <

    Wednesday, July 31, 2024

    Fifth FOMC Meeting of 2024 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Continues at 8.50%

    U.S. Prime Rate Continues at 8.50%
    United States Prime Rate

    The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its fifth monetary policy meeting of 2024 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to keep the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% - 5.50%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) continues at 8.50%.

    NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

    Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

    "...Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have moderated, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains somewhat elevated. In recent months, there has been some further progress toward the Committee's two percent inflation objective.

    The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its 
    employment and inflation goals continue to move into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

    In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

    In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the
    stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; and Christopher J. Waller. Austan D. Goolsbee voted as an alternate member at this meeting..."

    ==========

     The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.50% on July 26, 2023.

    ==========
      


    ==========

    Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,

    --> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <--

    >  SITEMAP  <

    Monday, June 17, 2024

    Odds Now At 90% (VERY LIKELY) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Remain at 8.50% After The July 31, 2024 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

    United States Prime Rate Forecast
    Prime Rate Prediction

    Prime Rate Forecast

    As of right now, our odds are at 90% (very likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to keep the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at  5.25% - 5.50% at the July 31ST, 2024 monetary policy meeting, with the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) holding at 8.50%.

     =======

    Futures Market Has No Idea Where Where Short-Term Rates Will Be at The End of This Year
      
    www.FedPrimeRate.com: Futures Market has No Idea Where Where Short-Term Rates Will Be at The End of This Year
    Current Interest-Rate-Futures Market Predictions for
    the December 18, 2024 FOMC Policy Meeting



    Nice
    β–³pyramidβ–³ this πŸ‘†πŸ”ΊπŸ‘† chart is, n'est-ce pas?

    Right now, a 44% majority believe that the Fed will have cut rates by 50 basis points (0.50 percentage point) by the end of 2024.  If they're right, that would put the U.S. Prime Rate at an even 8.00% at year-end.

    • From the May Jobs Report: Year-on-year (Y-O-Y), Average Weekly Earnings advanced by +4.08%, while the reading on Average Weekly Earnings was +3.78%

      • The U-3 (official) jobless rate edged higher, from 3.9% during April, to 4.0% during May, 2024.

    • Y-O-Y, the Core CPI for May, 2024 came in at +3.42%.
       
    Stay tuned...
    =======

    The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.50% on July 26, 2023.

    =======

    NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

    ======= 

    Current Odds

    • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will remain at 8.50% after the July 31ST, 2024 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 90% (very likely.)
    =========

    Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

    --> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <--

    >  SITEMAP  <

    Wednesday, June 12, 2024

    Fourth FOMC Meeting of 2024 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Holds at 8.50%

    U.S. Prime Rate Continues at 8.50%
    United States Prime Rate

    The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its fourth monetary policy meeting of 2024 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to keep the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% - 5.50%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) continues at 8.50%.

    NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

    Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

    "...Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been modest further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective.

    The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance over the past year. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

    In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

    In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller..."

    ==========

     The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.50% on July 26, 2023.

    ==========
      


    ==========

    Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,

    --> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <--

    >  SITEMAP  <

    Tuesday, May 07, 2024

    Odds Now At 90% (VERY LIKELY) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Remain at 8.50% After The June 12, 2024 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

    United States Prime Rate Forecast
    Prime Rate Prediction

    Prime Rate Forecast

    As of right now, our odds are at 90% (very likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to keep the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at  5.25% - 5.50% at the June 12TH, 2024 monetary policy meeting, with the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) holding at 8.50%.

     =======

    Jobs + Wages Weakening: Exactly What The Fed Wants
      
    • CHART: Number of Jobless People per Job Opening - MARCH 2024 UPDATE
      The number of jobless people per job opening crept up during March, 2024 (graphic.)  A lagging indicator, but nevertheless: further proof that the Fed's mission of killing jobs, and keeping short-term interest rates elevated, to tame inflation, is working.
    • From the April Jobs Report: A rare negative month-on-month reading for Average Weekly Earnings (-0.09%.)
    Stay tuned...
    =======

    The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.50% on July 26, 2023.

    =======

    NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

    ======= 

    Current Odds

    • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will remain at 8.50% after the June 12TH, 2024 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 90% (very likely.)
    =========

    Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

    --> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <--

    >  SITEMAP  <


    bing

    bing


    SCAMS!

    FedPrimeRate.com
    Entire Website © 2024 FedPrimeRate.comSM


    This website is neither affiliated nor associated with The United States Federal Reserve
    in any way. Information in this website is provided for educational purposes only. The owners
    of this website make no warranties with respect to any and all content contained within this
    website. Consult a financial professional before making important decisions related to any
    investment or loan product, including, but not limited to, business loans, personal loans,
    education loans, first or second mortgages, credit cards, car loans or any type of insurance.