United States Prime Rate

also known as the Fed, National or United States Prime Rate,
from the interest-rate specialists at www.FedPrimeRate.comSM

Friday, March 24, 2023

Odds Now At 100% (Certain) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Continue At 8.00% After The May 3, 2023 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to keep the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at  4.75% - 5.00% at the May 3, 2023 monetary policy meeting, with the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) holding at 8.00%.

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The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.00% on March 22, 2023.

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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Current Odds
  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at 8.00% after the May 3, 2023 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain.)
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Wednesday, March 22, 2023

Second FOMC Meeting of 2023 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Rises to 8.00%

U.S. Prime Rate Rises to 8.00%
United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its second monetary policy meeting of 2023 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to raise the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate to 4.75% - 5.00%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) is now 8.00%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have picked up in recent months and are running at a robust pace; the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects is uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-3/4 to 5 percent. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy. The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the extent of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and
inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller..
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Thursday, February 09, 2023

Odds Now At 100% (Certain) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Rise To At Least 8.00% After The March 22, 2023 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate to at least  4.75% - 5.00%, at the March 22, 2023 monetary policy meeting, with the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) rising to at least 8.00%.

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The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 7.75% on February 1, 2023.

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Current Odds
  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to at least 8.00% after the March 22, 2023 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain.)
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Wednesday, February 01, 2023

First FOMC Meeting of 2023 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Rises to 7.75%

U.S. Prime Rate Rises to 7.75%
United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its first monetary policy meeting of 2023 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to raise the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate to 4.50% - 4.75%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) is now 7.75%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased somewhat but remains elevated.

Russia's war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship and is contributing to elevated global uncertainty. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent. The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the extent of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller..
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Saturday, December 17, 2022

Odds Now At 100% (Certain) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Rise To At Least 7.75% After The February 1, 2023 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate to at least  4.50% - 4.75%, at the February 1, 2023 monetary policy meeting, with the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) rising to at least 7.75%.

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The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 7.50% on December 14, 2022.

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Current Odds
  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to at least 7.75% after the February 1, 2023 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain.)
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Wednesday, November 09, 2022

Odds Now At 100% (Certain) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Rise To At Least 7.50% After The December 14, 2022 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate, from the current 3.75% - 4.00%, to at least  4.25% - 4.50%, at the December 14TH, 2022 monetary policy meeting, with the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) rising to at least 7.50%.

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The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 7.00% on November 2ND, 2022.

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Current Odds
  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to at least 7.50% after the December 14TH, 2022 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain.)
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Wednesday, November 02, 2022

Seventh FOMC Meeting of 2022 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Rises to 7.00%

U.S. Prime Rate Rises to 7.00%
United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its seventh monetary policy meeting of 2022 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to raise the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) is now 7.00%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.

Russia's war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Esther L. George; Philip N. Jefferson; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller..."
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Friday, September 23, 2022

Odds Now At 100% (Certain) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Rise To At Least 6.75% After The November 2, 2022 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate, from the current 3.00% - 3.25%, to at least   3.50% - 3.75%, at the November 2ND, 2022 monetary policy meeting, with the U.S. Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) rising to at least 6.75%, with the possibility of an increase to 7.00%.

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Used-Home Prices Appear to Have Peaked

After hitting a record-high of $413,800 in June, the cost of a previously owned home has been easing.  The July, 2022 price was $399,200, while the August reading was $389,500.

Currently, many are predicting that a recession is in the offing. Stay tuned for upcoming data on newly built and existing homes, as those reading may offer more evidence that the Fed's actions to kill inflation are already kicking in...

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The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 6.25% on September 21ST, 2022.

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Current Odds
  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to at least 6.75% after the November 2ND, 2022 FOMC monetary policy meeting, with the possibility of an increase to 7.00%: 100% (certain.)


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Wednesday, September 21, 2022

Sixth FOMC Meeting of 2022 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Rises to 6.25%

U.S. Prime Rate Rises to 6.25%
United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its sixth monetary policy meeting of 2022 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to raise the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate from 2.25% - 2.50%, to 3.00% - 3.25%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) is now 6.25%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.

Russia's war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3 to 3-1/4 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Esther L. George; Philip N. Jefferson; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.
.."
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Monday, August 08, 2022

Odds Now At 100% (Certain) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Rise To At Least 6.00% After The September 21, 2022 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate, from the current 2.25% - 2.50%, to at least   2.75% - 3.00%, at the September 21ST, 2022 monetary policy meeting, with the U.S. Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) rising to at least 6.00%, with the possibility of an increase to 6.25%.

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Moving On From LIBOR:
Your Comments are Welcome


 LIBOR goes away after June 30, 2023.  Anyone can comment on a proposed regulation that would implement the Adjustable Interest Rate (LIBOR) Act; comments must be submitted by August 29, 2022.

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The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 5.50% on July 27TH, 2022.

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Stay tuned for the latest odds, and for current U.S. economic data (inflation, jobs, economic growth, wages, etc.) 


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Current Odds
  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to at least 6.00% after the September 21ST, 2022 FOMC monetary policy meeting, with the possibility of an increase to 6.25%: 100% (certain.)


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