United States Prime Rate

also known as the Fed, National or United States Prime Rate,
from the interest-rate specialists at www.FedPrimeRate.comSM

Wednesday, November 09, 2022

Odds Now At 100% (Certain) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Rise To At Least 7.50% After The December 14, 2022 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate, from the current 3.75% - 4.00%, to at least  4.25% - 4.50%, at the December 14TH, 2022 monetary policy meeting, with the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) rising to at least 7.50%.

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The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 7.00% on November 2ND, 2022.

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Current Odds
  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to at least 7.50% after the December 14TH, 2022 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain.)
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Wednesday, November 02, 2022

Seventh FOMC Meeting of 2022 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Rises to 7.00%

U.S. Prime Rate Rises to 7.00%
United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its seventh monetary policy meeting of 2022 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to raise the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) is now 7.00%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.

Russia's war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Esther L. George; Philip N. Jefferson; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller..."
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Friday, September 23, 2022

Odds Now At 100% (Certain) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Rise To At Least 6.75% After The November 2, 2022 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate, from the current 3.00% - 3.25%, to at least   3.50% - 3.75%, at the November 2ND, 2022 monetary policy meeting, with the U.S. Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) rising to at least 6.75%, with the possibility of an increase to 7.00%.

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Used-Home Prices Appear to Have Peaked

After hitting a record-high of $413,800 in June, the cost of a previously owned home has been easing.  The July, 2022 price was $399,200, while the August reading was $389,500.

Currently, many are predicting that a recession is in the offing. Stay tuned for upcoming data on newly built and existing homes, as those reading may offer more evidence that the Fed's actions to kill inflation are already kicking in...

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The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 6.25% on September 21ST, 2022.

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Current Odds
  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to at least 6.75% after the November 2ND, 2022 FOMC monetary policy meeting, with the possibility of an increase to 7.00%: 100% (certain.)


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Wednesday, September 21, 2022

Sixth FOMC Meeting of 2022 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Rises to 6.25%

U.S. Prime Rate Rises to 6.25%
United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its sixth monetary policy meeting of 2022 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to raise the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate from 2.25% - 2.50%, to 3.00% - 3.25%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) is now 6.25%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.

Russia's war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3 to 3-1/4 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Esther L. George; Philip N. Jefferson; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.
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Monday, August 08, 2022

Odds Now At 100% (Certain) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Rise To At Least 6.00% After The September 21, 2022 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate, from the current 2.25% - 2.50%, to at least   2.75% - 3.00%, at the September 21ST, 2022 monetary policy meeting, with the U.S. Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) rising to at least 6.00%, with the possibility of an increase to 6.25%.

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Moving On From LIBOR:
Your Comments are Welcome


 LIBOR goes away after June 30, 2023.  Anyone can comment on a proposed regulation that would implement the Adjustable Interest Rate (LIBOR) Act; comments must be submitted by August 29, 2022.

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The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 5.50% on July 27TH, 2022.

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Stay tuned for the latest odds, and for current U.S. economic data (inflation, jobs, economic growth, wages, etc.) 


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Current Odds
  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to at least 6.00% after the September 21ST, 2022 FOMC monetary policy meeting, with the possibility of an increase to 6.25%: 100% (certain.)


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Thursday, July 28, 2022

Fifth FOMC Meeting of 2022 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Rises to 5.50%

U.S. Prime Rate Rises to 5.50%
United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its fifth monetary policy meeting of 2022 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to raise the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate from 1.50% - 1.75%, to 2.25% - 2.50%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) is now 5.50%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Recent indicators of spending and production have softened. Nonetheless, job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.

Russia's war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Esther L. George; Philip N. Jefferson; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.
.."
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Thursday, July 14, 2022

Odds Now At 100% (Certain) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Rise To At Least 5.50% After The July 27, 2022 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate, from the current 1.50% - 1.75%, to at least   2.25% - 2.50%, at the July 27TH, 2022 monetary policy meeting, with the U.S. Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) rising to at least 5.50% -- with the strong possibility of an increase to 5.75%.

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Ugly Inflation Readings

Year-on-year (YoY), the Consumer Price Index for June 2022 came in at a scary 9.06%, which instantly caused many rate watchers, including this shop, to predict that the Fed is likely to raise short-term rates by 100 basis points (1.00 percentage point) 13 days from now (July 27.)   

Also very notable: This morning's Producer Price Index (PPI) reading for June, which came in at 11.3% YoY, was higher than all credible forecasts. The all-time , YoY record-high for the PPI was set a few months back: the March 2022 reading was 11.6%.

Stay tuned.........
 
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The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 4.75% on June 15TH, 2022.

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Coronavirus COVID-19 Reminder:

Symptoms of COVID-19, which may appear 2-14 days after exposure, include:
  • Fever
  • Cough
  • Shortness of breath
Emergency warning signs for COVID-19 include:
  • Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath
  • Persistent pain or pressure in the chest
  • New confusion or inability to arouse
  • Bluish lips or face
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Stay tuned for the latest odds, and for current U.S. economic data (inflation, jobs, economic growth, wages, etc.) 


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Current Odds
  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to at least 5.50% after the July 27TH, 2022 FOMC monetary policy meeting, with a strong possibility of an increase to 5.75%: 100% (certain.)


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Thursday, June 23, 2022

Odds At 100% (Certain) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Rise To At Least 5.25% After The July 27, 2022 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate, from the current 1.50% - 1.75%, to at least   2.00% - 2.25%, at the July 27TH, 2022 monetary policy meeting, with the U.S. Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) rising to at least 5.25% (with the strong possibility of an increase to 5.50%.)

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Economic alarm bells are still clanging here in the USA, and in many other industrialized economies around the world. Inflation is the #1 concern, of course, but soaring mortgage rates and home prices have the real-estate world nervous as well.

Relief may be in the offing. The Core PCE Price Index -- the Fed's preferred inflation gauge -- may have peaked.  The latest year-on-year readings:

  • February: +5.3%
  • March: +5.2%
  • April: +4.9%

And if inflation is really retreating, then mortgage rates will ease as well. That's because the giant pools of capital that move in and out of U.S. Treasuries should start to swing into the safety of government debt, and cause bond yields to start easing.

We'll get the next Core PCE reading on Thursday, June 30, 2022.

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The pandemic isn't over folks.  Please be careful out there! We implore you to keep masking up, even if you are vaccinated.

>> #MaskUP <<

Stay tuned....
 
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The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 4.75% on June 15TH, 2022.

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Coronavirus COVID-19 Reminder:

Symptoms of COVID-19, which may appear 2-14 days after exposure, include:
  • Fever
  • Cough
  • Shortness of breath
Emergency warning signs for COVID-19 include:
  • Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath
  • Persistent pain or pressure in the chest
  • New confusion or inability to arouse
  • Bluish lips or face
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=======

Stay tuned for the latest odds, and for current U.S. economic data (inflation, jobs, economic growth, wages, etc.) 


======= 

Current Odds
  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to at least 5.25% after the July 27TH, 2022 FOMC monetary policy meeting, with a strong possibility of an increase to 5.50%: 100% (certain.)


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Wednesday, June 15, 2022

Fourth FOMC Meeting of 2022 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Rises to 4.75%

U.S. Prime Rate Rises to at 4.75%
United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its fourth  monetary policy meeting of 2022 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to raise the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate from 0.75% - 1.00%, to 1.50% - 1.75%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) is now 4.75%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Overall economic activity appears to have picked up after edging down in the first quarter. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures.

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The invasion and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. In addition,
COVID-related lockdowns in China are likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve
maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1‑1/2 to 1-3/4 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of
monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health,  labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Lisa D. Cook; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action was Esther L. George, who preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.5 percentage point to 1-1/4 percent to 1-1/2 percent. Patrick Harker voted as an alternate member at this meeting.
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Saturday, May 07, 2022

Odds At 100% (Certain) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Rise To At Least 4.50% After The June 15, 2022 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate, from the current 0.75% - 1.00%, to at least   1.25% - 1.50%, at the June 15TH, 2022 monetary policy meeting, with the U.S. Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) rising to at least 4.50% (with the possibility of an increase to 4.75%.)

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"...Sure. So 75 basis point increase is not something the committee is actively considering. What we are doing is we raised 50 basis points today. And we said that, again, assuming that economic and financial conditions evolve in ways that are consistent with our expectations, there's a broad sense on the committee that additional 50 basis increases should be on, 50 basis points should be on the table for the next couple of meetings. So we're going to make those decisions at the meetings, of course, and we'll be paying close attention to the incoming data and the evolving outlook, as well as to financial conditions..."
 
Nevertheless, a 75 basis point (0.75 percentage point) increase is possible for the June 15TH meeting, due in large part to Thursday's Productivity and Labor Costs report for Q1, 2022. Year-on-year, productivity declined by 0.6% (bad), while unit labor costs increased by 7.2% (even worse!) 

Moreover, according to the April 2022 Jobs report, average hourly earnings rose by a hefty 5.464% compared to a year ago, and the most recent Core PCE inflation reading was 5.2%.

Stay tuned......
 
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The current U.S. Prime Rate was raised to the current 4.00% on May 4TH, 2022.

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Coronavirus COVID-19 Reminder:

Symptoms of COVID-19, which may appear 2-14 days after exposure, include:
  • Fever
  • Cough
  • Shortness of breath
Emergency warning signs for COVID-19 include:
  • Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath
  • Persistent pain or pressure in the chest
  • New confusion or inability to arouse
  • Bluish lips or face
=======



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=======

Stay tuned for the latest odds, and for current U.S. economic data (inflation, jobs, economic growth, wages, etc.) 


======= 

Current Odds
  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to at least 4.50% after the June 15TH, 2022 FOMC monetary policy meeting, with the possibility of an increase to 4.75%: 100% (certain.)


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>  SITEMAP  <





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