United States Prime Rate

also known as the Fed, National or United States Prime Rate,
from the interest-rate specialists at www.FedPrimeRate.comSM

Monday, November 08, 2021

Odds At 100% (Certain) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Remain At The Current 3.25% After The December 15, 2021 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate at the current 0.00% - 0.25% at the December 15TH, 2021 monetary policy meeting, and keep the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) at 3.25%.

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COVID-19 Update

The latest jobs numbers look very promising.

But this COVID thing is not over yet.

As of right now (November 8, 2021), there are 47,336,577 confirmed COVID-19 cases in the United States, with 775,218 total deaths. 37,332,949 have recovered.

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Compared to the numbers we posted in this blog on September 27,2021:

  • Confirmed COVID-19 cases have increased by 3,579,851 (8.18%.)
  • Total deaths have increased by 68,825 (9.74%.)
  • Total recovered has increased by 4,146,680 (12.5%.)
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And cases are spiking and setting new records in many other industrialized nations to boot.

Bottom line: Even with readings on inflation causing many to do a double take, the coronavirus pandemic continues to rage, so the Fed is extremely likely to keep short-term rates at rock bottom well into 2023.

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Coronavirus Pandemic: Please Keep Your Distance!

Coronavirus Pandemic: Please Keep Your Distance!
 
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The current U.S. Prime Rate was lowered from 4.25% to the current 3.25% on March 15TH, 2020.

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Coronavirus COVID-19 Reminder:

Symptoms of COVID-19, which may appear 2-14 days after exposure, include:
  • Fever
  • Cough
  • Shortness of breath
Emergency warning signs for COVID-19 include:
  • Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath
  • Persistent pain or pressure in the chest
  • New confusion or inability to arouse
  • Bluish lips or face
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=======



=======

Stay tuned for the latest odds, and for current U.S. economic data (inflation, jobs, economic growth, wages, etc.) 


======= 

Current Odds

  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will continue at the current 3.25% after the December 15TH, 2021 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain.)

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Wednesday, November 03, 2021

Seventh FOMC Meeting of 2021 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Holds At 3.25%

U.S. Prime Rate Holds at 3.25%
United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its seventh monetary policy meeting of 2021 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to maintain the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 0% - 0.25%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) remains at 3.25%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have improved in recent months, but the summer's rise in COVID-19 cases has slowed their recovery. Inflation is elevated, largely reflecting factors that are expected to be transitory. Supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy have contributed to sizable price increases in some sectors. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

The path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations and an easing of supply constraints are expected to support continued gains in economic activity and employment as well as a reduction in inflation. Risks to the economic outlook remain.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation having run persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. In light of the substantial further progress the economy has made toward the Committee's goals since last December, the Committee decided to begin reducing the monthly pace of its net asset purchases by $10 billion for Treasury securities and $5 billion for agency mortgage‑backed securities. Beginning later this month, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $70 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $35 billion per month. Beginning in December, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $60 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $30 billion per month. The Committee judges that similar reductions in the pace of net asset purchases will likely be appropriate each month, but it is prepared to adjust the pace of purchases if warranted by changes in the economic outlook. The Federal Reserve's ongoing purchases and holdings of securities will continue to foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Charles L. Evans; Randal K. Quarles; and Christopher J. Waller..."
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Monday, September 27, 2021

Odds At 100% (Certain) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Remain At The Current 3.25% After The November 3, 2021 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate at the current 0.00% - 0.25% at the November 3RD, 2021 monetary policy meeting, and keep the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) at 3.25%.

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COVID-19 Update

As of right now, there are 43,756,726 confirmed COVID-19 cases in the United States, with 706,393 total deaths. 33,186,269 have recovered.

 
Housing
 
For the home hunters out there, prices have started to look a bit better. The median price for a previously occupied home declined to $356,700 last month, while the median price for a newly built home moved sideways at $390,900 during August 2021. The prices associated with new and used homes are converging!

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Coronavirus Pandemic: Please Keep Your Distance!

Coronavirus Pandemic: Please Keep Your Distance!
 
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The current U.S. Prime Rate was lowered from 4.25% to the current 3.25% on March 15TH, 2020.

=======

Coronavirus COVID-19 Reminder:

Symptoms of COVID-19, which may appear 2-14 days after exposure, include:
  • Fever
  • Cough
  • Shortness of breath
Emergency warning signs for COVID-19 include:
  • Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath
  • Persistent pain or pressure in the chest
  • New confusion or inability to arouse
  • Bluish lips or face
=======



=======



=======

Stay tuned for the latest odds, and for current U.S. economic data (inflation, jobs, economic growth, wages, etc.) 


======= 

Current Odds

  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will continue at the current 3.25% after the November 3RD, 2021 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain.)

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>  SITEMAP  <

Wednesday, September 22, 2021

Sixth FOMC Meeting of 2021 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Continues At 3.25%

U.S. Prime Rate Continues at 3.25%
United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its sixth monetary policy meeting of 2021 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to maintain the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 0% - 0.25%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) remains at 3.25%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have improved in recent months, but the rise in COVID-19 cases has slowed their recovery. Inflation is elevated, largely reflecting transitory factors. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

The path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations will likely continue to reduce the effects of the public health crisis on the economy, but risks to the economic outlook remain.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation having run persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. Last December, the Committee indicated that it would continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals. Since then, the economy has made progress toward these goals. If progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted. These asset purchases help foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Charles L. Evans; Randal K. Quarles; and Christopher J. Waller..."

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Friday, July 30, 2021

Odds At 100% (Certain) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Remain At The Current 3.25% After The September 22, 2021 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate at the current 0.00% - 0.25% at the September 22ND, 2021 monetary policy meeting, and keep the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) at 3.25%.

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COVID-19 Update

As of right now, there are 35,788,374 confirmed COVID-19 cases in the United States, with 629,430 total deaths. 29,679,695 have recovered.

But the ongoing pandemic, exacerbated by an aggressive new variant, hasn't dampened the spirit of the American consumer.  The latest Consumer Confidence reading from The Conference Board® was 129.1 for this month (July, 2021), the highest it's been since February of last year.  
 
So keep masking America, and distancing, and washing your hands, often.  This pandemic would have been over by now, IMHO, if everyone would have just done  the right thing from the beginning, and followed expert advice.

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Coronavirus Pandemic: Please Keep Your Distance!

Coronavirus Pandemic: Please Keep Your Distance!
 
 =======

 
 =======
 
The current U.S. Prime Rate was lowered from 4.25% to the current 3.25% on March 15TH, 2020.

=======

Coronavirus COVID-19 Reminder:

Symptoms of COVID-19, which may appear 2-14 days after exposure, include:
  • Fever
  • Cough
  • Shortness of breath
Emergency warning signs for COVID-19 include:
  • Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath
  • Persistent pain or pressure in the chest
  • New confusion or inability to arouse
  • Bluish lips or face
=======



=======



=======

Stay tuned for the latest odds, and for current U.S. economic data (inflation, jobs, economic growth, wages, etc.) 


======= 

Current Odds

  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will continue at the current 3.25% after the September 22ND, 2021 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain.)

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>  SITEMAP  <

Wednesday, July 28, 2021

Fifth FOMC Meeting of 2021 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Continues At 3.25%

U.S. Prime Rate Continues at 3.25%
United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its fifth monetary policy meeting of 2021 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to maintain the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 0% - 0.25%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) remains at 3.25%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have shown improvement but have not fully recovered. Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

The path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations will likely continue to reduce the effects of the public health crisis on the economy, but risks to the economic outlook remain.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation having run persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. Last December, the Committee indicated that it would continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals. Since then, the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings. These asset purchases help foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Charles L. Evans; Randal K. Quarles; and Christopher J. Waller..."

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Monday, June 28, 2021

Odds At 100% (Certain) The United States Prime Rate Will Continue At 3.25% After The July 28, 2021 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction
Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate at the current 0.00% - 0.25% at the July 28TH, 2021 monetary policy meeting, and keep the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) at 3.25%.

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Housing

New record high prices for previously owned homes.  During May 2021, the median price for a used home was $350,300, a 23.563% (+$66,800) increase compared to May 2020.
 
Inflation News

The inflation gauge to which the Fed pays close attention -- the Core PCE -- rose by a lofty 3.4% year-on-year, according to May's reading. The Fed promised to let this pandemic economy run hot, which is the right thing to do. Exactly how high they are willing to let inflation fly is anyone's guess.
 
Stock Market

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index finished the day at a brand new record high: 4,290.61.

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The current U.S. Prime Rate was lowered from 4.25% to the current 3.25% on March 15TH, 2020.

=======

Coronavirus COVID-19 Reminder:

Symptoms of COVID-19, which may appear 2-14 days after exposure, include:
  • Fever
  • Cough
  • Shortness of breath
Emergency warning signs for COVID-19 include:
  • Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath
  • Persistent pain or pressure in the chest
  • New confusion or inability to arouse
  • Bluish lips or face
=======



=======



=======

Stay tuned for the latest odds, and for current U.S. economic data (inflation, jobs, economic growth, wages, etc.) 


======= 

Current Odds

  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will continue at the current 3.25% after the July 28TH, 2021 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain.)

    ==========

=========


Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

>  SITEMAP  <

Wednesday, June 16, 2021

Fourth FOMC Meeting of 2021 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Holds At 3.25%

U.S. Prime Rate Remains at 3.25%
United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its fourth monetary policy meeting of 2021 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to maintain the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 0% - 0.25%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) remains at 3.25%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

Progress on vaccinations has reduced the spread of COVID-19 in the United States. Amid this progress and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have strengthened. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic remain weak but have shown improvement. Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations will likely continue to reduce the effects of the public health crisis on the economy, but risks to the economic outlook remain.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation having run persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. In addition, the Federal Reserve will continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals. These asset purchases help foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Charles L. Evans; Randal K. Quarles; and Christopher J. Waller..."

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Friday, June 04, 2021

FOMC Meeting Schedule for 2022

Here's the 2022 meeting schedule for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC.)

Why is this schedule important to you? Because it's at these monetary policy meetings that the FOMC votes on whether to raise, lower or make no changes to the target range for Fed Funds Target Rate, and when the Fed Funds Target Rate changes, the United States Prime Rate (also known as the Fed Prime Rate) will also change (how the United States Prime Rate works):

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  • January 26, 2022

  • March 16, 2022

  • May 4, 2022

  • June 15, 2022

  • July 27, 2022

  • September 21, 2022

  • November 2, 2022

  • December 14, 2022

 

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Thursday, May 13, 2021

Odds At 100% (Certain) The United States Prime Rate Will Continue At 3.25% After The June 16, 2021 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction
Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to leave the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate at the current 0.00% - 0.25% at the June 16TH, 2021 monetary policy meeting, and keep the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) at 3.25%.

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Inflation News

Year-on-year, the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) was a rather hot 3.0% last month.  If inflation readings continue to cause concern, the Fed may decide to raise short-term rates by December of this year.  But for now, it's still a safe bet that the Fed will keep rates as low as possible as the U.S. economy continues to strengthen.


 
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The current U.S. Prime Rate was lowered from 4.25% to the current 3.25% on March 15TH, 2020.

=======

Coronavirus COVID-19 Reminder:

Symptoms of COVID-19, which may appear 2-14 days after exposure, include:
  • Fever
  • Cough
  • Shortness of breath
Emergency warning signs for COVID-19 include:
  • Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath
  • Persistent pain or pressure in the chest
  • New confusion or inability to arouse
  • Bluish lips or face
=======



=======



=======

Stay tuned for the latest odds, and for current U.S. economic data (inflation, jobs, economic growth, wages, etc.) 


======= 

Current Odds

  • Current odds the United States Prime Rate will continue at the current 3.25% after the June 16TH, 2021 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain.)

    ==========

=========


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>  SITEMAP  <





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