Third FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting of 2026 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Holds at 6.75%

United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its third monetary policy meeting of 2026 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to keep the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% - 3.75%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) continues at 6.75%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of  monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy, as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Philip N. Jefferson; Anna Paulson; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting; and Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who supported maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate but did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time..."

==========

==========

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- --> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy -- BACKUP<-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Odds Now At 90% (LIKELY) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Remain at 6.75% After the April 29, 2026 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 90% (likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to leave the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) at the current 3.50% - 3.75% at the April 29^TH, 2026 monetary policy meeting, which would leave the United States Prime Rate at 6.75%.

 =======

Oil and War

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the NASDAQ Composite Index both finished the week in correction, while NYMEX crude oil for future delivery closed at $101.16 in New York...💣🛢💣...😐

Stay tuned...

=======

March 27, 2026 Market Correction Update 

=======

The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 6.75% on December 10, 2025.

=======

SUMMARY

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will remain at 6.75% after the April 29^TH, 2026 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 90% (likely.)

========

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- --> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy -- BACKUP<-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Second FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting of 2026 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Remains at 6.75%

United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its second monetary policy meeting of 2026 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to keep the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% - 3.75%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) continues at 6.75%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Beth M. Hammack; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; Anna Paulson; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action was Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting..."

==========

==========

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- --> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy -- BACKUP<-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Odds Now At 90% (LIKELY) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Remain at 6.75% After the March 18, 2026 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 90% (likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to leave the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) at the current 3.50% - 3.75% at the March 18^TH, 2026 monetary policy meeting, which would leave the United States Prime Rate at 6.75%.

 =======

Made In The USA

 

From the most recent manufacturing report from Institute for Supply Management®, for January, 2026:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in January for the first time in 12 months, preceded by 26 straight months of contraction..."

Great news, yes?

Well, I think the comments from American manufacturers tell the real story, so, here you go: ⏬

 

The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

•      ' ‘Hope’ has been word of the year in the Transportation Equipment industry. Unfortunately, all the hope in the world has not materialized into order activity in 2025 or the first half of 2026. Across the board, buyers continue to stand on the sidelines. As we enter 2026, every conversation revolves around hope that the second half of 2026 starts the turnaround. It’s hard to set strategy on hope, but thanks to the uncertainty brought about by this administration, here we are.'
   [Transportation Equipment] 

•     'Although our volume is low at the moment, the impact on the latest tariff threats on the European Union will have a huge negative impact on our profit for current quoted orders. We will not be able to recover the increase tariffs in our current quotations.'
   [Machinery] 

•     'Continuing softness in the market, with December orders below average and buyers reluctant to spend despite beneficial tax policies in the U.S. Geopolitical tensions are fueling ‘anti-American’ buyer sentiment, and sales are being lost.'
   [Machinery] 

•     'Another round of emotionally charged tariffs seems imminent, changing the landscape once more. Movement of custom product out of China continues, but the progress is slow with new qualifications required for transitioned materials and assemblies.'
   [Computer & Electronic Products] 

•     'Business conditions remain uncertain. Customers are cautious. Broad-based inflation continues. The Supreme Court tariff decision looms.' [Computer & Electronic Products] 

•     'Growing construction markets, data centers and energy projects, are straining the contract labor availability. The trade tariff uncertainty is creating volatility in the supply chain.'
   [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products] 

•     'A new year, with new challenges. We are moving manufacturing from China to Mexico -- which will now impose tariffs on parts made in China. This push for more of a Mexican supply chain and creates some short-term supply management concerns.'
   [Chemical Products] 

•     'Confused and uninformed tariff policies continue to plague small companies, making long-term planning pointless. Companies are not making capital commitments beyond 30 days.'
   [Fabricated Metal Products] 

•     'Business conditions remain soft as we continue to miss sales, orders and profits as result of increased costs from tariffs, continued fallout from the government shutdown, and increased global uncertainty.'
   [Miscellaneous Manufacturing] 

•     'Business trends moving into 2026 feature many of the headwinds from the third and fourth quarters of 2025. While the ‘plane’ has steadied, there continues to be uncertainty and added costs through our global operations.
  
  Tariff impacts on our financial performance last year cannot be overstated, as we had a much smaller EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) than previous years. While other inflationary pressures continue to hit the business, tariffs and product costs played a large role. This year, we will continue our multi-country sourcing approach to manufacture and import product from more tariff-friendly countries outside of China. 
  
  But as we know, nothing is guaranteed with the current administration. We have trimmed costs everywhere inside the business, including on labor and conferences, and reduced our revenue forecast to a much more achievable mark. We’re prepared to battle throughout the year for higher profitability.'
   [Apparel, Leather & Allied Products]
  

==========

CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index
January 2026 Update

=========

Stay tuned...

=======

The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 6.75% on December 10, 2025.

=======

SUMMARY

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will remain at 6.75% after the March 18^TH, 2026 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 90% (likely.)

========

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- --> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy -- BACKUP<-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

First FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting of 2026 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Continues at 6.75%

United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its first monetary policy meeting of 2026 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to keep the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% - 3.75%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) continues at 6.75%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Beth M. Hammack; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Anna Paulson. Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran and Christopher J. Waller, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting..."

==========

=========== 

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- --> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy -- BACKUP<-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Odds Now At 100% (CERTAIN) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Remain at 6.75% After the January 28, 2026 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to leave the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) at the current 3.50% - 3.75% at the January 28^TH, 2026 monetary policy meeting, which would leave the United States Prime Rate at the current 6.75%.

 =======

Inflation and Jobs

• Year-on-year (Y-o-Y), the Core PCE Price Index was 2.8% during November, 2025.
  
  
  The previous Y-o-Y reading (October, 2025) for the Core PCE Price Index was 2.7% (unrevised).
  
  
  
• According the Labor Department, an estimated 50,000 nonfarm jobs were created during December, 2025.
  
  The October, 2025 reading was revised to -173,000. 😕
  
  
  The unemployment rate was 4.4%. 

=======

Stay tuned...

=======

The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 6.75% on December 10, 2025.

=======

SUMMARY

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will remain at 6.75% after the January 28^TH, 2026 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain.)

========

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- --> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy -- BACKUP<-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Odds Now At 80% (LIKELY) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Remain at 6.75% After the January 28, 2026 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 80% (likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to leave the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) at the current 3.50% - 3.75% at the January 28^TH, 2026 monetary policy meeting, which would leave the United States Prime Rate at 6.75%.

 =======

Jobs + Retail + Inflation

• According the Labor Department, an estimated 64,000 nonfarm jobs were created during November, 2025. The October 2025 reading was revised to -130,000. 😐
  
  
  The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. 
  
  
  
• Year-on-year (Y-o-Y), the Core PCE Price Index was 3.0% during September, 2025.
  
  
  Y-o-Y, the September, 2024 reading was 3.1%.
  
  
  
• Y-o-Y, the Retail Sales reading for October, 2025 was a decent +3.47%.
  
  
  The month-on-month reading, however, was a very anemic +0.026%.

=======

Stay tuned...

=======

The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 6.75% on December 10, 2025.

=======

SUMMARY

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will remain at 6.75% after the January 28^TH, 2026 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 80% (likely.)

========

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- --> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy -- BACKUP<-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Eighth and Final FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting of 2025 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Is Lowered to 6.75%

United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its eighth and final monetary policy meeting of 2025 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to lower the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate to 3.50% - 3.75%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) is now 6.75%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up through September. More recent indicators are consistent with these developments. Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment rose in recent months.

In support of its goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower  the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

The Committee judges that reserve balances have declined to ample levels and will initiate purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities as needed to maintain an ample supply of reserves on an ongoing basis.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Philip N. Jefferson; Alberto G. Musalem; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action were  Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point at this meeting; and Austan D. Goolsbee and Jeffrey R. Schmid, who preferred no change to the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting..."

==========

=========== 

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- --> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy -- BACKUP<-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Odds Now At 90% (LIKELY) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Be Cut to 6.75% At Tomorrow's (December 10, 2025) FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 90% (likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to lower the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) by 25 basis points (BPS) to 3.50% - 3.75% at tomorrow's (December 10, 2025) monetary policy meeting, which would lower the U.S. Prime Rate to 6.75%.

 =======

Hard + Soft Data

  

Despite a persistent inflation problem, serious weakness in jobs, manufacturing and the American consumer translates to a likely 25 BPS cut for the TRFFR tomorrow. 

Check out where the University of Michigan's Current Conditions Index stands right now (3-month moving average), compared to where it was during the worst days of the COVID-19 pandemic...☟😐☟

• Stay tuned...

=======

The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 7.00% on October 29, 2025.

=======

SUMMARY

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will be cut to 6.75% at tomorrow's (December 10^TH, 2025) FOMC monetary policy meeting: 90% (likely.)

=========

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- --> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy -- BACKUP<-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Odds Now At 75% (SOMEWHAT LIKELY) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Be Cut to 6.75% At the December 10, 2025 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 75% (somewhat likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to lower the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) by 25 basis points (BPS) to 3.50% - 3.75% at the December 10^TH, 2025 monetary policy meeting, which would lower the U.S. Prime Rate to 6.75%.

 =======

On Inflation and Tariffs

  

Here are some clips from a November 3^RD, 2025 speech by Fed Governor Dr. Lisa D. Cook, at The Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.:
 

"...My outreach to business leaders suggests that the pass-through of tariffs to consumer prices is not yet complete. Many firms have adopted a strategy of running down their inventories at lower price levels before raising prices. Others have reported waiting until tariff uncertainty is resolved before passing increases on to consumers. New car models, clothing lines, and other products will be coming onto the market, and that process will continue to provide firms with an opportunity to level set prices. As such, I expect inflation to remain elevated for the next year.

Nonetheless, the effect of tariffs on prices, in theory, should represent a one-time increase. It is encouraging that most long-run inflation expectations, including from the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations, are low and stable at this juncture. When excluding tariff effects, 12-month core PCE inflation through September appears to be about 1/2 percentage point lower at about 2.3%, suggesting that underlying inflation has continued to make progress toward target. My assessment is that inflation is on track to continue on its trend toward our target of 2% once the tariff effects are behind us. The big caveat is that tariff effects must prove not to be persistent and that monetary policy remains appropriately focused on achieving that goal.

This is a point worth dwelling on for just a moment. The FOMC's firm commitment to its inflation mandate is imperative to ensure that inflation does remain in check, as I do expect in my baseline forecast. So let me be clear. I am committed to reaching our 2% inflation target. Moreover, I will be prepared to act forcefully, if the tariff effects appear to be larger or last longer than expected, or if other evidence emerges that higher levels of inflation are becoming entrenched in expectations.

In summary, after a temporary slowdown due to the government shutdown, I expect the economy to grow moderately over the medium term, supported by an AI productivity boom. I see the labor market as still solid, but I am highly attentive to downside risks. I see inflation as remaining somewhat elevated due to tariff effects and subject to upside risks..."

"...Labor Market

I will now turn to the labor market. We have less recent official data on the labor market, but the latest available indicators suggest that the labor market remains solid, though gradually cooling. The unemployment rate edged up over this summer from 4.1% in June to 4.3% in August, a relatively low reading one would expect to see in a healthy economy. To put 4.3% into perspective, the average unemployment rate over the 50-year period preceding the pandemic was 6.2%.

Since August, more recent labor-market indicators, such as UI claims, job postings, and individuals' assessments of job availability, signal little change to the August reading -- at most a small uptick. Taken together, the slightly rising  unemployment rate indicates the labor market is softening, but only modestly so..."

• Stay tuned...

=======

The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 7.00% on October 29, 2025.

=======

SUMMARY

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will be cut to 6.75% at the December 10^TH, 2025 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 75% (somewhat likely.)

=========

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- --> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy -- BACKUP<-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <