Sixth FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting of 2026 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Is Raised to 7.00%

United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its sixth monetary policy meeting of 2026 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to raise the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate t 3.75% - 4.00%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) is now at 7.00%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote:

The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.

Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace. While uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient. Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.

Inflation remains elevated. Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability..."

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Odds Now At 90% (LIKELY) the United States Prime Rate Will RISE to 7.00% At the September 16, 2026 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 90% (likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to raise the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) by 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point), from the current 3.50% - 3.75%, to 3.75% - 4.00%, at the September 16^TH, 2026 monetary policy meeting, which would cause the United States Prime Rate to rise to 7.00%.

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The Fed Can No Longer Stall On a Rate Increase...

• Year-on-year (Y-o-Y), the Core PCE Price Index, for the month of July, moved sideways, from +3.3% to +3.3%. 
  
  
• Y-o-Y, for the month of August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) edged higher,  from +3.36% to +3.4%. 
  
  
  • The Core CPI, which leaves out food and energy, edged lower, from 2.48% to +2.45%.

• Y-o-Y, for the month of August, the Producer Price Index surged from 4.8% to 5.4%.
  
  
• Crude oil inventories continue to dwindle. As of last week, inventories were -120,500,000 barrels (-14.52%) compared to a year ago... 🛢😳🛢
  
  NYMEX WTI Crude Oil for future delivery finished the week @ $99.99 per barrel in New York.
  
  
• According to the latest Employment Situation report, the American economy added 162,000 jobs during August of this year, while the unemployment rate held steady @ 4.1%.
  
  The Civilian Labor Force Participation rate was 61.6%.  During August of 2025, it was 62.3%.  

  Stay tuned...

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The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 6.75% on December 10, 2025.

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SUMMARY

• Current odds the United States Prime Rate will rise to 7.00% after the September 16^TH, 2026 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 90% (likely.)

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Odds Now At 50% (Uncertain) the U.S. Prime Rate Will Continue at 6.75% After the September 16, 2026 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 50% (uncertain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to leave the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) at the current 3.50% - 3.75% at the September  16^TH, 2026 monetary policy meeting, which would leave the United States Prime Rate at 6.75%.

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The lnflation Problem Continues

• Year-on-year (Y-o-Y), the Core PCE Price Index, for the month of July, moved sideways, from +3.3% to +3.3%. 
  
  
• Y-o-Y, for the month of July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased,  from +3.53% to +3.36%. 
  
  
  • The Core CPI, which leaves out food and energy, decreased, from 2.59% to +2.48%.
    

• Crude oil inventories continue to decline. As of last week, inventories were -103,900,000 barrels (-12.63%) compared to a year ago... 🛢😐🛢

  Stay tuned...

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The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 6.75% on December 10, 2025.

=======

SUMMARY

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will remain at 6.75% after the September  16^TH, 2026 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 50% (uncertain.)

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Fifth FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting of 2026 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Remains at 6.75%

United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its fifth monetary policy meeting of 2026 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to keep the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% - 3.75%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) continues at 6.75%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"....The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 9 – 3 vote:

The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.

Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.

Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.

Voting against the monetary policy action were Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting..."

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Odds Now At 50% (On The Fence) the U.S. Prime Rate Will Continue at 6.75% After the July 29, 2026 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 50% (on the fence) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to leave the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) at the current 3.50% - 3.75% at the July 29^TH, 2026 monetary policy meeting, which would leave the United States Prime Rate at 6.75%.

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lnflation Remains Sticky

• Year-on-year (Y-o-Y), the Core PCE Price Index, for the month of May, moved from +3.3% to +3.4%. 😐⏫😑
  
  
• Y-o-Y, for the month of May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from +3.81% to +4.25%. 😓
  
  
  • The Core CPI, which leaves out food an energy, rose from 2.75% to +2.85%.

Stay tuned...

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The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 6.75% on December 10, 2025.

=======

SUMMARY

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will remain at 6.75% after the July 29^TH, 2026 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 50% (on the fence.)

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Fourth FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting of 2026 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Continues at 6.75%

United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its fourth monetary policy meeting of 2026 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to keep the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% - 3.75%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) continues at 6.75%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote:

The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.

Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.

Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability..."

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Odds Now At 90% (LIKELY) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Continue at 6.75% After the June 17, 2026 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 90% (likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to leave the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) at the current 3.50% - 3.75% at the June 17^TH, 2026 monetary policy meeting, which would leave the United States Prime Rate at 6.75%.

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lnflation, and the U.S. Economy

• Year-on-year (Y-o-Y), the Core PCE Price Index, for the month of March, moved from +3.0% to +3.2%. 😐⏫😑
  
  
• Y-o-Y, for the month of March, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from +2.41% to +3.26%. 😶
  
  
  • The Core CPI, which leaves out food an energy, rose from 2.46% to +2.6%.
    
    
  
  
  
• For the week ending April 24, 2026, crude oil inventories declined by -13,400,000 Barrels (-1.54%.)
  
  
  • NYMEX crude for future delivery is currently @ $102.50 per barrel.😕
• Month-on-month, the Conference Board®'s Leading Economic Index for March, 2026 was 97.3 (-0.6 point.)
  
        --> Y-o-Y, it was -3.09% (-3.1 points.)
• Y-o-Y, for the month of March, manufacturing declined, from +1.3% to +0.5%, according to the Federal Reserve. Overall industrial production slipped from +1.4% to +0.7%.
  
  
• According to the Commerce Department's first estimate, the U.S. economy grew by +2.0% during the first quarter of 2026.
  
  
• The most recent 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) for the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was -0.03.
  
  
  

Stay tuned...

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The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 6.75% on December 10, 2025.

=======

SUMMARY

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will remain at 6.75% after the June 17^TH, 2026 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 90% (likely.)

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Third FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting of 2026 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Holds at 6.75%

United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its third monetary policy meeting of 2026 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to keep the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% - 3.75%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) continues at 6.75%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of  monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy, as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Philip N. Jefferson; Anna Paulson; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting; and Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who supported maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate but did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time..."

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Odds Now At 90% (LIKELY) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Remain at 6.75% After the April 29, 2026 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 90% (likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to leave the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) at the current 3.50% - 3.75% at the April 29^TH, 2026 monetary policy meeting, which would leave the United States Prime Rate at 6.75%.

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Oil and War

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the NASDAQ Composite Index both finished the week in correction, while NYMEX crude oil for future delivery closed at $101.16 in New York...💣🛢💣...😐

Stay tuned...

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March 27, 2026 Market Correction Update 

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The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 6.75% on December 10, 2025.

=======

SUMMARY

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will remain at 6.75% after the April 29^TH, 2026 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 90% (likely.)

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Second FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting of 2026 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Remains at 6.75%

United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its second monetary policy meeting of 2026 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to keep the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% - 3.75%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) continues at 6.75%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Beth M. Hammack; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; Anna Paulson; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action was Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting..."

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