Current Odds On Prime Rate Increase for the October 28, 2015 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting At 14% (Not Likely)

Prime Rate Forecast - Predictions

Latest Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, the investors who trade in fed funds futures at the CME Group have odds at 14% (as implied by current pricing on contracts) that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the benchmark Federal Funds Target Rate by at least 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point) at the October 28^TH, 2015 monetary policy meeting (not likely.)

Current Odds

• Current odds that the Prime Rate will rise by at least 25 basis points at the December 16^TH, 2015 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 44% (somewhat likely.)
  
  ========
• Current odds that the Prime Rate will rise by at least 25 basis points at the January 27^TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 55% (somewhat likely.)
  
  ========
• Current odds that the Prime Rate will rise by at least 25 basis points at the March 16^TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 67% (somewhat likely.)
  
  ========
• Current odds that the Prime Rate will rise by at least 25 basis points at the April 27^TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 71% (somewhat likely.)
  
  ========
• Current odds that the Prime Rate will rise by at least 25 basis points at the June 15^TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 81% (likely.)
  
  ========
• Current odds that the Prime Rate will rise by at least 25 basis points at the July 27^TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 89% (likely.)
  
  ========
  Current odds that the Prime Rate will rise by at least 25 basis points at the September 21^ST, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 93% (very likely.)
  
• NB: US Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

The odds related to federal-funds futures contracts -- widely accepted as the best predictor of where the FOMC will take the benchmark Fed Funds Target Rate -- are constantly changing, so stay tuned for the latest odds.

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- >  SITEMAP  <

Sixth FOMC Meeting of 2015 Adjourned: U.S. Prime Rate Remains At 3.25%

US Prime Rate Holds @ 3.25%

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve has just adjourned its sixth monetary policy meeting of 2015 and, in accordance with our most recent forecast, has voted to leave short-term interest rates at their current levels. Therefore, the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate will remain at 0% - 0.25%, and the Wall Street Journal® Prime Rate (a.k.a the U.S., national, WSJ or Fed Prime Rate) will continue at the current 3.25%.

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing moderately, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft. The labor market continued to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment. On balance, labor market indicators show that underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation moved lower; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term. Nonetheless, the Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced but is monitoring developments abroad. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress -- both realized and expected -- toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at this meeting..."

====

Latest Prime Rate Forecast (Odds Updated on September 18, 2015)


As of right now, the investors who trade in fed funds futures at the CME Group have odds at 11% (as implied by current pricing on contracts) that the FOMC will vote to raise the benchmark Federal Funds Target Rate by at least 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point) at the October 28^TH, 2015 monetary policy meeting (not likely.)

• Current odds that the Prime Rate will rise by at least 25 basis points at the December 16^TH, 2015 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 39%  (somewhat likely.)
  
  ========
• Current odds that the Prime Rate will rise by at least 25 basis points at the January 27^TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 49%  (somewhat likely.)
  
  ========
• Current odds that the Prime Rate will rise by at least 25 basis points at the March 16^TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 63%  (somewhat likely.)
  
  ========
  
• Current odds that the Prime Rate will rise by at least 25 basis points at the April 27^TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 67%  (somewhat likely.)
  
  ========


• NB: US Prime Rate = (The Federal Funds Target Rate + 3)

The odds related to federal-funds futures contracts -- widely accepted as the best predictor of where the FOMC will take the benchmark Fed Funds Target Rate -- are constantly changing, so stay tuned for the latest odds.

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- >  SITEMAP  <

Current Odds On Prime Rate Increase for Tomorrow's (September 17, 2015) FOMC Meeting At 25% (Not Likely)

Prime Rate Forecast - Predictions

Latest Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, the investors who trade in fed funds futures at the CME Group have odds at 25% (as implied by current pricing on contracts) that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the benchmark Federal Funds Target Rate by at least 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point) at the September 17^TH, 2015 (tomorrow) monetary policy meeting (not likely.)

This is a data-dependent Fed, and the numbers don't support a rate increase for tomorrow's meeting.  Despite unprecedented and unorthodox actions since the banking crisis of 2008, the Fed hasn't been able to reflate the US economy to a state that would justify the normalization of short-term rates. Inflation is still too tame, and wages still too stagnant.

Headline employment (U-3) looks pretty at 5.1%, but U-6 was 10.3% last month (U-6 is defined as Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force*.)

The labor force participation rate, which was 66.1% in August 2008, was 62.6% during August 2015*.

WTI Nymex crude oil, which was $106.89 per barrel back on September 26, 2008*, and $107.26 on June 20, 2014, is currently trading at $45.21 per barrel. Great for the average American, and great from a consumer spending perspective. But the Fed sees this as deflationary.

Weakness in China's economy will also be on the minds of FOMC participants.

Current Odds

• Current odds that the Prime Rate will rise by at least 25 basis points at the October 28^TH, 2015 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 41% (somewhat likely.)
  
  ========
• Current odds that the Prime Rate will rise by at least 25 basis points at the December 16^TH, 2015 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 59% (somewhat likely.)
  
  ========
• Current odds that the Prime Rate will rise by at least 25 basis points at the January 27^TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 67% (somewhat likely.)
  
  ========
• Current odds that the Prime Rate will rise by at least 25 basis points at the March 16^TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 77% (likely.)
  
  ========
• Current odds that the Prime Rate will rise by at least 25 basis points at the April 27^TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 81% (likely.)
  
  ========
• Current odds that the Prime Rate will rise by at least 25 basis points at the June 15^TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 88% (likely.)
  
  ========
• Current odds that the Prime Rate will rise by at least 25 basis points at the July 27^TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 91% (very likely.)
  
  ========
• NB: US Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

The odds related to federal-funds futures contracts -- widely accepted as the best predictor of where the FOMC will take the benchmark Fed Funds Target Rate -- are constantly changing, so stay tuned for the latest odds.

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- >  SITEMAP  <

Current Odds On Prime Rate Increase for September 17, 2015 FOMC Meeting At 27% (Not Likely)

Prime Rate Forecast - Predictions

Latest Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, the investors who trade in fed funds futures at the CME Group have odds at 27% (as implied by current pricing on contracts) that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the benchmark Federal Funds Target Rate by at least 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point) at the September 17^TH, 2015 monetary policy meeting (not likely.)

• Current odds that the Prime Rate will rise by at least 25 basis points at the October 28^TH, 2015 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 39% (somewhat likely.)
  
• Current odds that the Prime Rate will rise by at least 25 basis points at the December 16^TH, 2015 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 58%
  (somewhat likely.)
  
• Current odds that the Prime Rate will rise by at least 25 basis points at the January 27^TH, 2016 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 64% (somewhat likely.)
  
• NB: US Prime Rate = (The Federal Funds Target Rate + 3)

The odds related to federal-funds futures contracts -- widely accepted as the best predictor of where the FOMC will take the benchmark Fed Funds Target Rate -- are constantly changing, so stay tuned for the latest odds.

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- >  SITEMAP  <