Prime Rate Forecast

Prime Rate Forecast

Wednesday, July 29, 2026

Fifth FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting of 2026 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Remains at 6.75%

United States Prime Rate Remains at 6.75%
United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its fifth monetary policy meeting of 2026 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to keep the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% - 3.75%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) continues at 6.75%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"....The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 9 – 3 vote:

The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.

Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.

Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.

Voting against the monetary policy action were Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.
.."

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Tuesday, July 07, 2026

Odds Now At 50% (On The Fence) the U.S. Prime Rate Will Continue at 6.75% After the July 29, 2026 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 50% (on the fence) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to leave the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) at the current 3.50% - 3.75% at the July 29TH, 2026 monetary policy meeting, which would leave the United States Prime Rate at 6.75%.

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lnflation Remains Sticky

  • Year-on-year (Y-o-Y), the Core PCE Price Index, for the month of May, moved from +3.3% to +3.4%. 😐⏫😑

  • Y-o-Yfor the month of May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from +3.81% to +4.25%. 😓

    • The Core CPI, which leaves out food an energy, rose from 2.75% to +2.85%.
Stay tuned...

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The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 6.75% on December 10, 2025.
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SUMMARY

  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will remain at 6.75% after the July 29TH, 2026 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 50% (on the fence.)
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