United States Prime Rate

also known as the Fed, National or United States Prime Rate,
from the interest-rate specialists at www.FedPrimeRate.comSM

Thursday, February 09, 2023

Odds Now At 100% (Certain) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Rise To At Least 8.00% After The March 22, 2023 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

United States Prime Rate Forecast
Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate to at least  4.75% - 5.00%, at the March 22, 2023 monetary policy meeting, with the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) rising to at least 8.00%.

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The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 7.75% on February 1, 2023.

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Current Odds
  • Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will rise to at least 8.00% after the March 22, 2023 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 100% (certain.)
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Wednesday, February 01, 2023

First FOMC Meeting of 2023 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Rises to 7.75%

U.S. Prime Rate Rises to 7.75%
United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its first monetary policy meeting of 2023 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to raise the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate to 4.50% - 4.75%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) is now 7.75%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased somewhat but remains elevated.

Russia's war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship and is contributing to elevated global uncertainty. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent. The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the extent of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller..
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