Odds Now At 95% (VERY LIKELY) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Remain at 8.50% After The May 1, 2024 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 95% (very likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to keep the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at  5.25% - 5.50% at the May 1^ST, 2024 monetary policy meeting, with the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) holding at 8.50%.

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Latest on Disinflation
 

• Year-on-year (Y-O-Y), the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) slipped from 3.86% during January, to 3.75% during February, 2024. Good disinflation news...but not great.

• Y-O-Y, The Core PCE Price Index moved sideways, remaining at 2.8% from January to February of this year. With food + energy added to the mix, the PCE Price Index edged in the wrong direction: up, from 2.4% to 2.5%.

Wages

• Y-O-Y, average hourly + average weekly earnings advanced in sync, both by 4.14%, according to last Friday's Employment Situation Report for March, 2024.

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And so, based on these and other economic data, the Fed is likely to do nothing with the benchmark fed funds target rate on May 1^ST, 2024, which would mean Prime staying where it is until the following meeting and decision on short-term rates (June 12, 2024.)

Stay tuned...

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The United States Prime Rate was raised to the current 8.50% on July 26, 2023.

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NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

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Current Odds

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will remain at 8.50% after the May 1^ST, 2024 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 95% (very likely.)
  

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