Odds Now At 90% (Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Continue at 7.50% After the May 7, 2025 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 90% (likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to leave the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) at 4.25% - 4.50% at the May 7^TH, 2025 monetary policy meeting, leaving the U.S. Prime Rate at the current 7.50%.

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Tariffs and Job Cuts

Here's a clip from the February, 2025 Leading Economic Index:

"...Given substantial policy uncertainty and the notable pullback in consumer sentiment and spending since the beginning of the year, we currently forecast that real GDP growth in the US will slow to around 2.0% in 2025.'..."

Two percent is too generous.

The repercussions from #POTUS47's tariffs, and layoffs from DOGE, have yet to be fully felt in the American economy.

The Federal Reserve's estimate of a +1.7% change in real GDP for 2025 is a bit more realistic.

The www.FedPrimeRate.com estimate for 2025 real GDP: Flat to +0.7%.

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Meanwhile, the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite Index ended the week in correction territory, again.

 

Stay tuned...

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The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 7.50% on December 18, 2024.

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SUMMARY

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will continue at the current 7.50% after the May 7^TH, 2025 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 90% (likely.)

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Second FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting of 2025 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Continues At 7.50%

United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its second monetary policy meeting of 2025 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to leave the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 4.50% - 4.75% to 4.25% - 4.50%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) continues at 7.50%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion. The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; Alberto G. Musalem; and Jeffrey R. Schmid. Voting against this action was Christopher J. Waller, who supported no change for the federal funds target range but preferred to continue the current pace of decline in securities holdings..."

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 The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 7.50% on December 18, 2024.

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• Summary of Economic Projections

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Odds Now At 95% (Very Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Continue at 7.50% After the March 19, 2025 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 95% (very likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to leave the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) at 4.25% - 4.50% at the March 19^TH, 2025 monetary policy meeting, leaving the U.S. Prime Rate at the current 7.50%.

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 3.00% Last Month (Y-o-Y).

And, year-on-year, the Core CPI reading for January, 2025 was 3.26%!

So, why is inflation becoming a problem again?

Tariffs? Not likely.  Not yet anyway.

• The likely culprit = the supply of money in the American economy: M2.

Here's a chart from 2015 thru the end of 2024...👇

CHART: www.FedPrimeRate.com
 Monthly M2 Money Supply
 2015 thru 2024

Here is how the Fed defines M2 Money:

 

"...Beginning May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less IRA and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (2) balances in retail money-market funds (MMFs) less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs.

Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1..."

Stay tuned...

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The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 7.50% on December 18, 2024.

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SUMMARY

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will hold at the current 7.50% after the March 19^TH, 2025 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 95% (very likely.)

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Odds Now At 80% (Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Continue at 7.50% After the March 19, 2025 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 80% (likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to leave the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) at 4.25% - 4.50% at the March 19^TH, 2025 monetary policy meeting, leaving the U.S. Prime Rate at the current 7.50%.

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Housing Inflation & Affordability

From the good folks at Bank of America®, the following is a quote from a June, 2024 CNN article:

"Economists at Bank of America warned this week that the U.S. housing market is 'stuck and we are not convinced it will become unstuck' until 2026 -- or later..."

Prescient words, as evidenced by the latest inflation data from the Commerce Department.  The housing affordability situation keeps getting worse 👇📈👇 :

 

www.FedPrimeRate.com: Changes in Monthly
Consumer Spending - December 2024 UPDATE

Scary news, but there is some hope.

Since hitting a record high of $426,900 back in June of last year, the cost for a used home has been easing, according to the superlative folks at the National Association of REALTORS®.  During December of 2024, the median cost for a previously owned home was $404,400.

Stay tuned...

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The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 7.50% on December 18, 2024.

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SUMMARY

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will hold at the current 7.50% after the March 19^TH, 2025 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 80% (likely.)

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First FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting of 2025 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Holds At 7.50%

United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its first monetary policy meeting of 2025 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to leave the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate at 4.50% - 4.75% to 4.25% - 4.50%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) continues at 7.50%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid.  Inflation remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning  inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; Alberto G. Musalem; Jeffrey R. Schmid; and Christopher J. Waller..."

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 The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 7.50% on December 18, 2024.

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Odds Now At 90% (Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Hold at 7.50% After the January 29, 2025 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 90% (likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to keep the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) at 4.25% - 4.50% at the January 29^TH, 2025 monetary policy meeting, leaving the U.S. Prime Rate at the current 7.50%.

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The American Consumer

Is the American consumer ready to keep the American economy going strong in 2025?

• Here's a quote from the latest (December) Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS):

"...Broadly speaking, consumers believe that the economy has improved considerably as inflation has slowed, but they do not feel that they are thriving..."

Month-on-month, the ICS was +3.06%, while year-on-year it was +6.07%.

• Consumer Confidence declined by 7.18% this month (December, 2024.)  Here's a clip:
  
  

  "...Consumers became a bit less bullish about the stock market in December: 52.9% expected stock prices to increase over the year ahead, down from a record high of 57.2% in November. Also, 25% of consumers expected stock prices to decline, up from 21.7%. The share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the next 12 months ticked up to 48.5% but remained near recent lows. The share expecting lower rates eased to 29.3% -- down from recent months but still quite high..."

Stay tuned...

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The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 7.50% on December 18, 2024.

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SUMMARY

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will hold at the current 7.50% after the January 29^TH, 2025 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 90% (likely.)

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Eighth and Final FOMC Meeting of 2024 Adjourned: United States Prime Rate Is Now 7.50%

United States Prime Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System has just adjourned its eighth and final monetary policy meeting of 2024 and, in accordance with our latest forecast, has voted to lower the benchmark target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point) from 4.50% - 4.75% to 4.25% - 4.50%. Therefore, the United States Prime Rate (a.k.a the Fed Prime Rate) is now 7.50%.

NB: U.S. Prime Rate = (The Fed Funds Target Rate + 3)

Here's a clip from today's FOMC press release (note text in bold):

"...Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against the action was Beth M. Hammack, who preferred to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent..."

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Odds Now At 95% (Very Likely) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Be Cut to 7.50% at the December 18, 2024 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 95% (very likely) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to lower the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) by 0.25 percentage point (25 basis points [bps]) at the December 18^TH, 2024 monetary policy meeting.


A 25 bps cut would cause Prime to decrease, from the current 7.75%, to  7.50%. 

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• Year-on-year (Y-O-Y), the  CORE Consumer Price Index edged lower, from 3.33% during October, to 3.32% during November, 2024.
  
  
• Y-O-Y, from September to October, 2024, the CORE PCE Price Index rose from 2.7% to 2.8%.
  
  
  
• On the jobs front, Y-O-Y, the U-3 (Headline) Unemployment Rate ticked up, from 4.1% during October, 2024, to 4.2% during November.
  
  It was 3.7% during November, 2023.
  

• Y-O-Y, the reading on Average Hourly Earnings was +4.03%, while Average Weekly Earnings was +3.73%.

Stay tuned...

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The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 7.75% on November 7, 2024.

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SUMMARY

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will be cut to 7.50% at the December 18^TH, 2024 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 95% (very likely.)
  

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Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting Schedule for 2025 & 2026

👇: Here's the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting schedule for 2025 and 2026.

Why is this schedule important to you? Because it's at these monetary policy meetings that the FOMC votes on whether to raise, lower or make no changes to the target range for Fed Funds Target Rate, and when the Fed Funds Target Rate changes, the United States Prime Rate (also known as the Fed Prime Rate) will also change (how the United States Prime Rate works):

======👇2025👇======

• January 29, 2025
  
  
• March 19, 2025
  
  
• May 7, 2025
  
  
• June 18, 2025
  
  
• July 30, 2025
  
  
• September 17, 2025
  
  
• October 29, 2025
  
  
• December 10, 2025

======👇2026👇======

• January 28, 2026
  
  
• March 18, 2026
  
  
• April 29, 2026
  
  
• June 17, 2026
  
  
• July 29, 2026
  
  
• September 16, 2026
  
  
• October 28, 2026
  
  
• December 9, 2026

• January 27, 2027

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Odds Now At 60% (On The Fence) The U.S. Prime Rate Will Be Cut to 7.50% at the December 18, 2024 FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Prime Rate Prediction

Prime Rate Forecast

As of right now, our odds are at 60% (on the fence) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will vote to lower the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate (TRFFR) by 0.25 percentage point (25 basis points [bps]) at the December 18^TH, 2024 monetary policy meeting.


A 25 bps cut would cause Prime to decrease, from the current 7.75%, to  7.50%. 

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• Year-on-year (Y-O-Y), the CORE PCE Price Index moved sideways from August to September -- 2.7% to 2.7%.
  
  
• Y-O-Y, from August to September, the PCE Price Index eased, from 2.3% to 2.1%.

Stay tuned...

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The United States Prime Rate was lowered to the current 7.75% on November 7, 2024.

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SUMMARY

• Current odds the U.S. Prime Rate will be cut to 7.50% at the December 18^TH, 2024 FOMC monetary policy meeting: 60% (On The Fence.)
  

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